TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR EAST INDIA- ODISHA UNDER THE THREAT

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

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The second part of 2013 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season has started with a bang with a new Tropical Storm (we call it 02B as per JTWC) already born in the Bay of Bengal. This new Tropical Storm 02B in North Andaman Sea near 13N,93.5E approximately 1200km east-south east of Visakhapatnam already has wind of 35KT (and hence already lies in the Tropical Storm Category of the Saffir Simpson Scale) 

Seen above is the latest IR-NHC imagery of the Tropical Storm 02B via CIMSS showing the system as Invest (I). Distinct banding features are visible west of the low pressure as the LLCC (Low Level Circulation Centre) is trying to organise in the warm Bay of Bengal having SST of ~29C. LLCC is also becoming more exposed and consolidating also. At the surface level too, the system continues to enjoy lower southern convergence of ~30kt and the convection continues to boost up given the excellent upper air divergence to the south of the system as the system is tracking along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge although its experiencing moderately sheared environment to its south-west.

Already heavy rains have been reported in Andaman and Nicobar Is. Entire Andaman and Nicobar Is will continue to get heavy rains today with high velocity winds as the Tropical Storm intensifies close to the area. After the Tropical Storm moves NW tomorrow (10th Oct) onwards, there will be a decline in the rainfall in this area. 

The Tropical Storm 02B shall be curving to NW as it steers in a moisture rich,higher sea temperature of Bay of Bengal considering the available TPW (Total Precipitable Water). Atmospheric conditions also are expected to be conducive for this Tropical Storm to intensify to Category 1 (say with peak winds of around 80KT) around tomorrow,10th Oct afternoon or so and amidst produce "Rough Sea" in the Bay of Bengal in the highlighted region of METD WEATHER alert. Models are converging for landfall of this system along the Odisha coast on Saturday,12th Oct 2013 (Although landfall like conditions shall start from afternoon-evening of Friday,11th Oct 2013). 

The approximate landfall of this system seems to be around Brahmapur in Odisha however landfall like conditions (which includes heavy rains, gusty winds prominently) will be widely experienced along the entire Odisha coast even stretching upto North East coast of Andhra Pradesh which is bordering Odisha around Friday-Saturday. 

In the forecast map, METD WEATHER has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for East India Coast that prominently includes Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and heavy rainfall extension in Jharkhand also (May stretch upto Bihar on 13/14th Oct 2013). 

IMPACTS- 

*Damage to boats,ships in the "Rough Sea" or in the ports of Odisha (Rough Sea starts now and shall continue till 14th Oct 2013. Fisherman are also advised now to enter the Bay of Bengal till 13/14th Oct 2013. 

* Considering the fact that as of now the Tropical Storm will intensify to Category 1, widespread damage is likely along Odisha coast initially and later on moving into interior (particularly near the landfall area). Damage shall start from afternoon/evening of Friday,11th Oct 2013.

* Extensive damage to huts,trees and weak settlements is likely during the landfall and there exists a high flood threat for Odisha coast and interior as the weakened system (Tropical Depression will bring heavy rains).

* Disruptions of rail,air,road traffic is possible around the capital Bhubaneshwar. 

PRECAUTIONS (Via BOM: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) 

When a cyclone watch is issued (Extended for North East AP and areas in orange colour in the alert map) 

• Re-check your property for any loose material and tie down (or fill with water) all large, relatively light items such as boats and rubbish bins.
• Fill vehicles' fuel tanks. Check your emergency kit and fill water containers.
• Ensure household members know which is the strongest part of the house and what to do in the event of a cyclone warning or an evacuation.
• Tune to your local radio/TV for further information and warnings.
• Check that neighbours are aware of the situation and are preparing.

When a cyclone warning is issued (Odisha coast) 

Depending on official advice provided by your local authorities as the event evolves; the following actions may be warranted.

• If requested by local authorities, collect children from school or childcare centre and go home.
• Park vehicles under solid shelter (hand brake on and in gear).
• Put wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in your pool or inside with other loose items.
• Close shutters or board-up or heavily tape all windows. Draw curtains and lock doors.
• Pack an evacuation kit of warm clothes, essential medications, baby formula, nappies,
  valuables, important papers, photos and mementos in waterproof bags to be taken with
  your emergency kit. Large/heavy valuables could be protected in a strong cupboard.
• Remain indoors (with your pets). Stay tuned to your local radio/TV for further information.
• DON'T TRAVEL TO COASTAL AREAS TO SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE