Sunday, June 16, 2013

Dry phase of the monsoon to begin very soon

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

SW Monsoon has been very active in some parts of the nation in recent but the conditions are going to change very soon.

The above image from CPC shows the propagation of the MJO ( Madden Julian Oscillation). As can be seen, a region having orange, red-orange color will be approaching over India from 20th June 2013. This is a textbook dry-phase of the MJO where the precipitation will be suppressed in India ( which at the moment is enhanced). As a result of this, the rainfall amount in India from 19-20th June will go down considerable. Break-monsoon conditions are very likely due to the same effect. 

It looks like another enhanced convection/rainfall phase will arrive over India from Mid July 2013. 

*** Heavy rains are likely in a wide area in North India stretching from Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Western Nepal, Western Uttar Pradesh,Central Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and around and Southern, South-Eastern, Eastern Gujarat and around till 19th June 2013 

Light rains are also expected in Delhi-NCR in the tenure. 

Rainfall will be relaxing in Central India from tomorrow/day after tomorrow onwards. 

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