Friday, December 30, 2011

Tropical Storm Thane sends moisture towards Central India. Rainfall likely in some areas

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The former tropical cyclone Thane which made a landfall South of Cuddalore at around 0500hrs IST today with a pressure of 985mb created moisture band North of LLCC during its final journey. 

As seen from the above GFS 850mb map, the past cyclone Thane is the anti clockwise whirl at South India while to its North the moisture from Bay of Bengal which was influenced by the system is digging in Central India. 
A High Pressure region  at the Mid levels will be intensifying at North of Bay of Bengal just over West Bengal. This High pressure region will channelize the moisture to spread over Central India with the earlier Northerly winds turning Southernly from tomorrow onwards

As seen from this 72hr i.e of 1st Jan 2012 plot, a much of rainfall is being seen over East Central India especially around Nagpur. 
The rainfall shall be eminent in Madhya Pradesh,Northern Maharashtra on 31st Dec 2011,spreading over a large area on the first fay of New Year!

As a result of the favored moisture and destabilized atmosphere, Rainfall shall be expected in Nagpur on Saturday night period with Mostly Cloudy weather. There will be an upsurge in the min temp to 20C ( +8C) due to this. 

If the GFS is to be believed, the lifting mechanism shall be good on Sunday where some isolated thunderstorm is expected with some rainfall in the city!

Forecast for Nagpur- 

30/12- Mostly Cloudy with convection building
Min temp to be around 19C

31/12- Day shall begin with clear or light clouds but with the reach of convection temperature in afternoon,CB clouds will build and an isolated thunderstorm can be expected in or in the vicinity of Nagpur providing rains

1/1/2012- Expected to be overcast with light rains 

2/1/2012 - Decreasing cloud cover and possible light rains till early morning. Rest mostly cloudy weather

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.


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