Saturday, December 24, 2011

Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Update-1

Bay Of Bengal Low Pressure Update-1
Designation - BOB D1
Valid +24hrs from 1800GMT

An area of convection has formed between 5N-15N and 82E-92E. The Satellite imagery clearly depicts exposed low level circulation center, associated cloud tops over -70C and Spiral symmetry of the system. Model analysis indicates that the system has ROBUST potential for intensification given the excellent poleward outflow ( Upper air) of 20kt, persisting low level convergence ( increasing) of 15kt and negligible wind shears to affect! The system is being fed by the 29C Sea Surface Temp and plenty of moisture in the region. The attached 850mb vorticity indicates favorable lifting mechanism for the intensification in overall ..

Considering the given parameters,BOB D1 will continue movement NW in the Bay of Bengal reaching offshore Southern India around 26-27.If the system goes as expected then it shall produce heavy rains accompanied by strong winds,storm surge offshore Tamil Nadu,Karnataka.

The system shall be a Tropical Depression at peak from its present forecast!

II- Weather in Central India may take a turn?
If the system goes on the track as expected, then it shall pump moisture at mid and low levels in Central,Eastern India towards the 30th Dec and shall increase cloud cover and precipitation probabilities in the region.
It shall be monitored separately!

Akshay Deoras

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