Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
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Friday, December 30, 2011
Tropical Storm Thane sends moisture towards Central India. Rainfall likely in some areas
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Landfall of Tropical Storm Thane takes place South of Cuddalore
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
THE LANDFALL OF TROPICAL STORM (INTENSITY DOUBTED) HAS TAKEN PLACE AROUND 0600HRS IST TODAY SOUTH OF CUDDALORE. As seen from this DWR microwave imagery,the eyewall crossed exactly south of Cuddalore where the peak winds reported were around 115km/hr ! The winds are now expected to reverse as the half of the system has crossed
METD WEATHER HAS EXTENDED THE ALERT TOWARDS THE WEST AREAS OF THE PREVIOUSLY ALERTED REGION WHICH WILL BE NOTIFIED SHORTLY AT
Dangerous Mistake made by Deccan Chronicle on Cyclone Thane
The article can be seen here
Deccan Chronicle reports-
However, the storm surge is expected to be around 1 km in height and not cause much damage.
Well its a sure misguidance especially at a time of emergency like this. So people reading it please note that the correct line will be
However,the storm surge is expected to be around 1-1.5 m in height and not cause much damage
Akshay Deoras
METD WEATHER
CYCLONE THANE BATTERS TAMIL NADU COAST
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
The Cyclone Thane as being mentioned in today's posts is rapidly approaching the Tamil Nadu coast at a speed of over 11km/hr!
AS OF 0730PM IST,
THANE IS AT 81E,11.8N ABOUT 100KM SOUTH EAST OF CHENNAI
Rainfall associated with it already began in Chennai late yesterday with moderate winds!
As seen from the above IR-NHC spectrum imagery, it appears that the LLCC ( Low Level Cyclonic Circulation Center) is rapidly approaching towards the area between Puducherry and Cuddalore!
The image on the right hand side is of the Doppler Radar Chennai of 1335UT i.e 0635PM IST which clearly shows the LLCC ( Noted as circular vortex South East of Chennai in the circle of Radius 100km!) is approaching Puducherry for a head on. The radar estimates that the landfall shall be sometime tomorrow ( 30th Dec 2011) morning around 0530hrs IST
Cyclone Thane has been a Cat 1 Cyclone during the landfall which was a bit expected as it didn't had that much space where it could get weak. It shall now start weakening as it is losing the Sea surface contact.
METD WEATHER HAS ISSUED A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS FOR
METD WEATHER PDS AND MARK 5 ALERT FOR THE BELOW AREAS VALID TILL 1900hrs,30th Dec 2011
Chennai,Mamallapuram,Pondicher
RIGHT-
This is a classical example of Doppler Effect with a Tropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere.
A cyclone due to coriolis force of earth's rotation rotates ANTICLOCKWISE in Northern Hemisphere. Thus the winds in the Northern half of center are anticlockwise i.e during such landfall from East the winds move towards the land( DENOTED BY BLUE COLOR IN THE IMAGE) and in the Southern Half ( RED COLOR) means winds are moving away!
Thus PEOPLE ARE BEING INFORMED TO STAY AWAY FROM DAMAGES ESP FROM HIGH WINDS,RAINS AND STORM SURGES
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Eyewall of Tropical Cyclone BOB D1(Thane) 150km SE of Chennai
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
THE LANDFALL PROCESS OF CYCLONE THANE HAS BEGUN FEW HOURS AGO RESULTING IN RAIN AND STRONG WINDS IN CHENNAI.HOWEVER THE EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR TO PUDUCHCHERRY IN PONDICHERRY TONIGHT.AS A RESULT VERY HEAVY RAINS,WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALSO
MAJOR FLOODING ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STORM SURGE
THE ATTACHED IMAGE IS OF THE DOPPLER RADAR OF CHENNAI WHERE THE EYEWALL CAN BE SEEN AS A CIRCLE AROUND 150KM SE OF CHENNAI...
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
TS Thane is now a Category 1
METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
Severe Weather Forecaster
Well, Category 1 Cyclone BOB D1 ( Thane) definitely intensified a bit in the last 12hrs unlike expected by METD WEATHER but since it was near the transition of Cat 1 from Tropical Storm on Saffir Simpson scale the strengthening isn't that significant
Right now the system has really gained tremendous convection momentum
The next post shall be on 29th Dec 2011 morning till then METD WEATHER EXPECTS THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ATLEAST A BIT
ALERTS-
ALERT HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND EXPIRES 0800HRS IST,1ST JAN 2012
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Tropical Cyclone BOB D1 (Thane) in the final stages of intensification,Expected to weaken now
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Tropical Cyclone BOB D1 Update 2 ( TS Thane)
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Monday, December 26, 2011
Tropical Storm BOB D1 (Thane) surging towards Chennai
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Update-1
Designation - BOB D1
Valid +24hrs from 1800GMT
An area of convection has formed between 5N-15N and 82E-92E. The Satellite imagery clearly depicts exposed low level circulation center, associated cloud tops over -70C and Spiral symmetry of the system. Model analysis indicates that the system has ROBUST potential for intensification given the excellent poleward outflow ( Upper air) of 20kt, persisting low level convergence ( increasing) of 15kt and negligible wind shears to affect! The system is being fed by the 29C Sea Surface Temp and plenty of moisture in the region. The attached 850mb vorticity indicates favorable lifting mechanism for the intensification in overall ..
Considering the given parameters,BOB D1 will continue movement NW in the Bay of Bengal reaching offshore Southern India around 26-27.If the system goes as expected then it shall produce heavy rains accompanied by strong winds,storm surge offshore Tamil Nadu,Karnataka.
The system shall be a Tropical Depression at peak from its present forecast!
II- Weather in Central India may take a turn?
If the system goes on the track as expected, then it shall pump moisture at mid and low levels in Central,Eastern India towards the 30th Dec and shall increase cloud cover and precipitation probabilities in the region.
It shall be monitored separately!
Akshay Deoras
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Expected weather forecast for Lunar Eclipse 10th Dec 2011
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Friday, December 2, 2011
"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"
A Week prior to the 10th Dec 2011 Total Lunar Eclipse, AKG is beginning the Lunar Week from Sat ( 03rd Dec) to 10th Dec 2011.The Lunar Week's inaugural article is here.I am proud to present this article titled as "Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"The article focuses on explaining the science of Lunar Eclipse through Frequently Asked Questions I have encountered with written in a simple language to enable the readers to understand it. Also given below are the datas from Eclipse NASA giving insight about the event on 10th Dec 2011 when a Total Lunar Eclipse will be visible.The Eclipse is important for me and my hometown as the next eclipse ( Total Lunar) will be visible nearly after 6 years !!!So sit back and enjoy and wish you a Happy Lunar Week.AND!!FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THE ECLIPSE: MARK THE DATE --- Sat,10th Dec 2011Akshay Deoras--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"By Akshay Deoras
The coming Saturday,10th Dec is going to be a wonderful evening for all the astro lovers! There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on the evening of Saturday which will be the second one of the year ( After 15th June 2011) when the first total lunar eclipse was seen.However, the weather didn't allow any view of the eclipse from Nagpur.The Eclipse is going to be visible completely in East Asia,Australia,New Zealand.In India the moon will rise before the beginning of penumbral eclipse in North East states,East central region,Eastern Jammu and Kashmir. For central India including Nagpur,and the remaining regions the moon will rise in the penumbral eclipse. Penumbral Eclipse happens when the moon enters the penumbra or outer faint shadow of the Earth. As a result the TOTALITY PHASE will be seen by these areas.However for much of Africa,Europe the eclipse last stages will be seen and so it will just be restricted to Partial Lunar Eclipse for them. The Eclipse will not be visible in extreme west africa,South America and Antarctica prominently.The Details for IndiaI must say that cities in the entire Seven sister states,West Bengal,Sikkim,Bihar,Jharkhand and some parts of Chattisgarh,Extreme eastern J&K will have the moon rise before the P1 stage. So they can experience the entire phenomena.For Kolkata moon will rise on 10th Dec around 1637hrs (1107UT).The general timings are -P1 = 11:33:32 UT ….. (0503PM IST)….. Moon enters the penumbraU1 = 12:45:42 UT …. (0615PM IST)….. Moon enters the umbraU2 = 14:06:16 UT ….. (0736PM IST) … TOTAL ECLIPSE BEGINSGREATEST ECLIPSE - 1432UT ( 0802PM IST)U3 = 14:57:24 UT …. (0827PM IST)U4 = 16:17:58 UT….. (0948PM IST) … MOON LEAVES UMBRAP4 = 17:30:00 UT …. (11PM IST) … ECLIPSE ENDSWHAT WILL THE PEOPLE SEE (INCLUDING NAGPUR) ?Nagpur Special*For Nagpur, the moon rise on 10th is at 1723hrs IST (1153hrs UT)Moon enters the Umbra - 0615PM ISTTotal Eclipse Begins - 0736PM ISTMAXIMUM - 0802PM ISTTotal Eclipse Ends- 0827PM ISTPartial Eclipse ends - 0948PM ISTPenumbral Eclipse ends- 11PM ISTTHE NEXT TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TO BE VISIBLE FROM NAGPUR WILL BE ON 31ST JAN 2018Apparent View of the Moon and Earth's shadow in Real time at 0802PM IST-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------MOON'S APPEARANCE WILL BE SIMILAR AS SHOWN IN THE ABOVE FIGUREAt 1133UT, the moon's appearance will start fading slightly which is often not noticed by naked eyes. This happens as less dark shadow of Earth falls on the Moon. As the Moon starts progressing towards the Umbra Region, from 1406UT, the Totality will start and the Moon's surface will begin to cut off due to the earth and moon will start getting darker but there will be appearance of Red shades will increase and at 1432UT the moon will be BRICK RED. The reverse process will again follow as the moon leaves umbra completely at 1618UT.The Eclipse will be over at 1730UT!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Myth of Eclipses
The phenomena of eclipse wasn't as enjoyable thousands of years ago as it is today especially to see the copper red moon of totality.For those who don't know the science of the eclipse, lets learn it through Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)Chinese people had mentioned first about Solar Eclipse long way back around 2134BC. People of the ancient times used to fear from the eclipse as they thought it was a curse. Even the famous war between Lydians and Medes ended after 5 years at once as the day turned dark due to Solar Eclipse- A phenomena which they didn't understand.
Q.Ingredients for the recipe of Total Lunar Eclipse?A. Sun,Earth,MoonLunar Eclipse occurs when the Earth's shadow falls on the moon.When I am standing in front of a tube light my shadow falls behind ( Say there is a screen). This screen is the moon and I am the earth for considerationQ.How is the moon's orbit around the Earth?A.The orbit of the moon around the Earth is an ellipse ( curve obtained when you join letter "u" from top with inverted "u"). Moon's orbit around the earth makes an angle of 5 Degree 14 mins with the ecliptic ( Ecliptic plane is the plane in which Earth orbit's the Sun)Its like when you consider a clock let the minute hand pointing from 9 to 3 be ecliptic. So the second's hand pointing from 10-4 and 8-2 is the moon's orbit around the earth but in the real three dimension of space.Thus the second's hand crosses the plane two times.At 9'o clock and 3'o clock.The same is the concept of Moon.Moon's orbit crosses the ecliptic two times during one orbit referred as nodes( Explained below)Thus for earth's shadow to be casted on moon or moon blocking the solar disc, the moon must be in a common plane with earth and sun i.e have co-planar orbits.Q. When Moon crosses the ecliptic twice a month, then why there isn't eclipse twice a month?
A. Consider the below figureCOURTESY- DWIGHT ENNISThe Nodal axis is a line joining the two nodes. That is for eclipse moon must be at one node which it does twice in its orbit BUT the sun ALSO must be at the other far end of the stick ( Nodal axis). It is supposed to happen every 6 months.Q. Why doesn't the Eclipse re-occur at the same date after 6 months?A.The combined gravitational pull between Earth-Moon-Sun creates a wobble in that nodal axis and so it oscillates. Due to this the dates of eclipses aren't repeated at the same dates.Q. WHY MOON APPEARS RED SHADE DURING TOTALITY?A. When the Totality stage arrives, the moon enters much of the Darker portion ( UMBRA) of earth's shadow. Logically one says that during maximum eclipse, the moon's view must be blocked totally making it dark and invisible for sometime but it doesn't happen.It appears Brick or Copper Red !The reason is at this stage, the sun's light is still traveling in the earth's atmosphere. We know that the WHITE light is composed of seven colors but as per Rayleigh's Scattering, the color having less wavelength will scatter more i.e prominently Violet,Blue and others. Since the Red color has higher wavelength than other colors, its less scattered and so when the sun's light exits the earth's atmosphere the red color spectrum is dominant. This light falls on the moon and we see its reflection. If there is more dust,volcanic ash etc in atmosphere then Moon's color will appear different ! There is a scale known as Danjon Scale which determines the color of moon which will be seen during total lunar eclipseThe French astronomer Andre-Louis Danjon proposed a useful five point scale for evaluating the visual appearance and brightness of the Moon during total lunar eclipses. 'L' values for various luminosities are defined as follows:
L = 0 Very dark eclipse. Moon almost invisible, especially at mid-totality. L = 1 Dark Eclipse, gray or brownish in coloration. Details distinguishable only with difficulty. L = 2 Deep red or rust-colored eclipse. Very dark central shadow, while outer edge of umbra is relatively bright. L = 3 Brick-red eclipse. Umbral shadow usually has a bright or yellow rim. L = 4 Very bright copper-red or orange eclipse. Umbral shadow has a bluish, very bright rim.Courtesy- Arvind ParanjpyeQ.Is Lunar Eclipse SAFE to Watch?A. Absolutely YES!Infact I will encourage the readers to hunt with their telescopes or binoculars or simple naked eyes to watch this celestial beauty..Q.Is Lunar Eclipse connected to any Natural Calamity,disasters etc.A. Absolutely not.Q.What is the speed of the moon during this projection through Earth's shadow?A. Around 1.6km/secMore questions are welcomed at-