METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
The overall 2011 Winter is in a smooth stage with temperatures making a sharp dip at minimum near the west coast of Maharashtra and interiors like Pune and settling around 15C at min here in Nagpur.
This year's November has been overall DRY as compared to the last year when it was remarkably wet due to a coupled effect of La Nina and enhanced phase of Madden Jullian Oscillation.
This month, the MJO phase turned down to DRY or INACTIVE phase which assisted in the cool air incursion and spread in India. However the GFS models are continuing to predict a "STORMY OUTLOOK THIS MONTH END"
The Empirical Wave Propogation from Climate Prediction Center is indicating an arriving ENHANCED or WET phase of MJO by 27th Nov 2011.
At the same time, the GFS forecast models are indicating "A JUST FORMED LOW PRESSURE AROUND 5N,80E" IN THE INDIAN OCEAN" will cross Sri Lanka and enter the Arabian Sea around 25-26th Nov 2011. The Long Range models continue to predict that it will reach intensification stage offshore the West Coast of India due to conducive environment.
If it comes true, then Western India will experience HEAVY RAINS STARTING FROM 26-27TH NOV 2011. THE RAINS WILL BECOME HEAVY WITH GALE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGES WHICH WILL PURELY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW
INCREASED MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIA
IF THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THEN THERE WILL BE A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING FROM THIS MONTH END AND WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO AROUND MID DECEMBER
THERE WILL BE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVEL IN MAHARASHTRA.
THE WINDS ALSO WILL RE-DIRECT FROM SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH FOR NAGPUR AND ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA
THIS ALSO WILL TRIGGER RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND SOME PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA AND TOTALLY BLOW AWAY THE WINTER FOR SOME DAYS
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES RELATING TO IT
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
The overall 2011 Winter is in a smooth stage with temperatures making a sharp dip at minimum near the west coast of Maharashtra and interiors like Pune and settling around 15C at min here in Nagpur.
This year's November has been overall DRY as compared to the last year when it was remarkably wet due to a coupled effect of La Nina and enhanced phase of Madden Jullian Oscillation.
This month, the MJO phase turned down to DRY or INACTIVE phase which assisted in the cool air incursion and spread in India. However the GFS models are continuing to predict a "STORMY OUTLOOK THIS MONTH END"
The Empirical Wave Propogation from Climate Prediction Center is indicating an arriving ENHANCED or WET phase of MJO by 27th Nov 2011.
If it comes true, then Western India will experience HEAVY RAINS STARTING FROM 26-27TH NOV 2011. THE RAINS WILL BECOME HEAVY WITH GALE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGES WHICH WILL PURELY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW
INCREASED MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIA
IF THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THEN THERE WILL BE A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING FROM THIS MONTH END AND WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO AROUND MID DECEMBER
THERE WILL BE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVEL IN MAHARASHTRA.
THE WINDS ALSO WILL RE-DIRECT FROM SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH FOR NAGPUR AND ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA
THIS ALSO WILL TRIGGER RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND SOME PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA AND TOTALLY BLOW AWAY THE WINTER FOR SOME DAYS
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES RELATING TO IT
No comments:
Post a Comment