METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
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AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST POST, THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM/CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
The Visible and Infrared observations indicate presence of wedge area of flaring convection in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka given the latest peak -50C cloud tops in the region especially in the region north of MALE.
Model forecast guidance has improved a lot and is in consistent agreement that persisting area of low pressure at 4.9N,78.3E has robust potential for organizing into a good tropical depression system.
GFS guidance form CIMSS suggests that the area of flaring convection near the low level circulation center in in the sea having SST of 30C. The IR-BD and IR-NHC spectrum imagery implies that a wide area of convection is organizing North-West of MALE given the favored themal condition.
The system is facing very good upper air divergence of 40kt peak and low level convergence of 5-10kt in relaxed sheared environment. The persisting upper air conditions has helped the system's convection to gain momentum and the developing LLC will enable in the improvement of geometry of the system.
A note from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicates presence of 25-30kt wind near the LLCC and MSLP of 1001mb.
I will not be surprised to find REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IN NEXT 24HRS CONSIDERING THE FAVORED CONDITIONS
Extremely Active Phase of MJO-
As seen from the above EWP map of Climate Prediction Center,a very active "WET PHASE" of MJO is landing in the Indian Subcontinent. Its very obvious that under the influence of this favored phase, the low pressure region mentioned above shall intensify.
Intensity,Track and Effects
The Model guidance is fluctuating in the intensity of the system but considering the assistance from MJO, it does appear that the system will get converted to a Tropical Storm or Category 1 Cyclone.
It shall be too early to go with Cat 1 Cyclone however the probability of it can't be ruled out.
The Track of the system shall be in the Arabian Sea initially (26th Nov) passing close to Kerala.
The system will move OFFSHORE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE SHORE thus limiting the rainfall totals in the continent.
Due to the less resistance from coastal dry air, the system shall intensify on its way reaching in the North Arabian Sea offshore Gujarat this month end.
The upper air winds ( Jet Streams) will then curve the path of this system which will bend it over North Gujarat or so. However we must wait till more details arrive
The possible effects will be
Rough Seas in Eastern Arabian Sea offshore the West Coast of India
Strong Winds and GALE at the coasts ( West India)
Moderate Rainfall at the coastal regions
( ALERT MAP SHALL BE PUT ON SOON)
WINTER BLOW OFF!
If this system happens to bend towards India, then it will deflect the North,North Western winds and due to its influence the winds shall be westerly to SW. This will lead to rise of night temperature in Western India and Central India also...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
Follow us @ Facebook
facebook.com/deorasakshay
AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST POST, THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM/CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
The Visible and Infrared observations indicate presence of wedge area of flaring convection in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka given the latest peak -50C cloud tops in the region especially in the region north of MALE.
Model forecast guidance has improved a lot and is in consistent agreement that persisting area of low pressure at 4.9N,78.3E has robust potential for organizing into a good tropical depression system.
GFS guidance form CIMSS suggests that the area of flaring convection near the low level circulation center in in the sea having SST of 30C. The IR-BD and IR-NHC spectrum imagery implies that a wide area of convection is organizing North-West of MALE given the favored themal condition.
The system is facing very good upper air divergence of 40kt peak and low level convergence of 5-10kt in relaxed sheared environment. The persisting upper air conditions has helped the system's convection to gain momentum and the developing LLC will enable in the improvement of geometry of the system.
I will not be surprised to find REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IN NEXT 24HRS CONSIDERING THE FAVORED CONDITIONS
Extremely Active Phase of MJO-
Intensity,Track and Effects
The Model guidance is fluctuating in the intensity of the system but considering the assistance from MJO, it does appear that the system will get converted to a Tropical Storm or Category 1 Cyclone.
It shall be too early to go with Cat 1 Cyclone however the probability of it can't be ruled out.
The Track of the system shall be in the Arabian Sea initially (26th Nov) passing close to Kerala.
The system will move OFFSHORE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE SHORE thus limiting the rainfall totals in the continent.
Due to the less resistance from coastal dry air, the system shall intensify on its way reaching in the North Arabian Sea offshore Gujarat this month end.
The upper air winds ( Jet Streams) will then curve the path of this system which will bend it over North Gujarat or so. However we must wait till more details arrive
The possible effects will be
Rough Seas in Eastern Arabian Sea offshore the West Coast of India
Strong Winds and GALE at the coasts ( West India)
Moderate Rainfall at the coastal regions
( ALERT MAP SHALL BE PUT ON SOON)
WINTER BLOW OFF!
If this system happens to bend towards India, then it will deflect the North,North Western winds and due to its influence the winds shall be westerly to SW. This will lead to rise of night temperature in Western India and Central India also...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
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