SW Monsoon 2011 Revised dates ( IndiMO III)
SW Monsoon shall continue to advance Northward as forecasted in IndiMO II.
The SWM shall reach parts of Western coast of India excluding Gujarat ( Covering all parts by 12th June 2011)
Limit shall be Maharashtra-AP-Karnataka border.
The cyclone shall pull away all monsoon current+ dry phase of MJO.
Remaining Maharashtra- After 26th June 2011
Nagpur- Monsoon Onset shall be by 30th June 2011
Rest part ( Northern India) - First week of July
*** Cyclone shall pull away the monsoon current.
Monsoon shall progress ON TIME for Western Coast of India and areas South of Maharashtra.
*** With Dry phase of MJO, SWM shall be slow during 13-25th June 2011
*** Revival shall happen after that
*** Total Accumulation expected 80-85% ( 15-20% Deficient)
*** Nagpur to get the first pre-monsoon shower by 7th June 2011
*** Possible Onset in Nagpur on 30th June 2011***
*** 900mb plots show good moisture incursion in first half of June which indicates a Weak Monsoon Onset for most of nation ( Including Maharashtra BUT METD WEATHER SHALL NOT CONSIDER IT AS MONSOON THOUGH IMD MAY CLAIM
(C) 2011 METD WEATHER