Joint Typhoon Warning Centre upgrades the system to a Tropical Cyclone.

HEAVY RAINS,GALE WARNING FOR PAKISTAN SOUTHERN COAST IS CANCELLED

ROUGH STATE OF SEA CONTINUES IN THE AREA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre had earlier issued Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ( Check out last post)

The centre again picked up the system today by mentioning it as Tropical Cyclone 1 or Cyclone Keila

However as per JTWC the winds are around 35kt at centre 65KM/HR.

LOCATIONS -

19.9N,71.7E BASED ON DATA REPORTED AT 1200HRS GMT

FORECAST-

*** THE CENTRE OF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM

*** SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND LACK OF SYMMETRICAL SHAPE

*** UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR INDIAN COASTS

*** THE CLOUDING REMAINS DETACHED TO WEST OF LOW

*** THE LOW PRESSURE SHALL TRAVEL NORTH-NORTH WEST STRIKING SOUTHERN COAST OF GUJARAT IN NEXT 24HRS

*** MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHALL TRAVEL THROUGH ADJOINING COASTS OF WEST GUJARAT TOMORROW EVENING TO NIGHT HOURS

*** GALE WINDS,HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COAST OF GUJARAT

*** HEAVY RAINS WITH STRONG WINDS SHALL HIT SOUTHERN,SOUTH-WESTERN AND WESTERN GUJARAT

*** ALL THIS TO HAPPEN ON SUNDAY,12TH JUNE 2011 NIGHT

AFTER 6PM *** FOR SOUTHERN GUJARAT

*** WEST CENTRAL GUJARAT DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 13TH JUNE 2011**

*** LOW SHALL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR PRESENT IN NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND SO I DON'T FORSEE IT TURNING TO INTENSE CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING INDIA

*** OMAN IS SAFE AS OF NOW FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WATCH CONTINUES

*** PAKISTAN SOUTHERN COASTS ALSO ARE BEING MONITORED***

********** PEOPLE ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN BEACHES ALONG SOUTHERN GUJARAT,WESTERN GUJARAT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TILL MONDAY AFTERNOON******

****** FISHERMAN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN THE SEAS

******* REFER METD WEATHER WARNING MAP

CHECK METD WEATHER ALERT MAP ALREADY POSTED AND FOLLOW @

www.facebook.com/deorasakshay

Tropical Storm Keila forms in the Arabian Sea

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

"" TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT""

FOR INSTANT UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS-

JOIN US ON FACEBOOK HERE

The much Anticipated and Puzzling Cyclone " Keila" has finally formed with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center ( JTWC) officially confirming its formation.

In an update provided by the JTWC, as of 2230hrs( 8th June) JTWC has mentioned Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

at 18.7N,69.8E 180NM West of Mumbai

METD WEATHER HAD ISSUED A HIGH RISK YESTERDAY ONLY FOR FORMATION OF CYCLONE IN NEXT 24HRS!

FORECAST-

THE AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED AT 18.7N,69.8E AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FEW ALERTS HAS ORGANIZED. VISIBLE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROBUST CONVECTION HAPPENING WITHIN THE SYSTEM SITUATED IN A POOL OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER 30C

THE IR-BD IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

RAINBANDS ALSO HAVE ORGANIZED IN LAST 12HRS GIVING A MORE SYMMETRIC SHAPE TO THE TROPICAL STORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER 40KT!

WITH SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENCE AS THE UPPER DIVERGENT WINDS ARE OVER 40KT, THE SYSTEM HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIALS FOR INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24HRS.THE WIND SHEARS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE WEAK FOR NEXT 24HRS!

WITH A PRESSURE OF AROUND 998MB, KEILA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM WITH PEAK WINDS OF 61KM/HR ( APX)

WHERE WILL IT GO?

CHECK THE ALERT MAP FOR DETAILS

HAS INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FORGOTTEN SCIENCE OF METEOROLOGY?

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

IMD MISGUIDING PEOPLE?

DURING MONITORING ANY ACTIVITY OVER LAND AND SEA, THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ( IMD) USES TERMINOLOGY- "THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PRESENT IN SOME AREAS"

IMD RELATES UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ( FORECASTED) TO FORM IN A REGION.

BEFORE THE LOW HAS FORMED,IMD MENTIONS SUCH TERMINOLOGY AND IS OFTEN PUBLISHED IN VARIOUS NEWS REPORTS

SAMPLE- THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE DATED 1ST JUNE 2011.

SEE HERE

IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, DUE TO THE CORIOLIS EFFECT, LOW PRESSURE SPIN ANTICLOCKWISE OFTEN CALLED AS CYCLONIC SPIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS CLOCKWISE AND IS CALLED AS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

THUS BY MENTIONING " UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION" RELATING TO A SURFACE LOW FORECASTED,IMD MAKES IT CLEAR THAT THERE IS A ANTI-CLOCK SPIN

SCIENCE OF CYCLONES-

CYCLONES ARE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS FOUND OVER LAND AND MOSTLY OVER OCEANS. THE LOW PRESSURES OVER LAND ARE ALSO REFERRED AS CYCLONES ESPECIALLY THE MID LATITUDE CYCLONES.

WE DISCUSS ABOUT THE CYCLONES FORMING IN OCEANS

THE FIRST PHASE IS PROVIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH PRODUCES BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER AIR CURRENT,TRAVEL OVER THE OCEANS WHERE THEY ARE ENCOUNTERED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,MOISTURE FROM THE SEA AND THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL IS THE HEAT.

AS A THUNDERSTORM STARTS DEVELOPING IN THE OCEAN THAT IS WHEN CONVERGENCE ( MOVEMENT OF AIR MASS FROM SURROUNDING INTO A SYSTEM) GRIPS AT LOWER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING AN INFLUX OF WARM,MOIST AIR. THE HEAT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE PARCEL OF AIR WHICH GETS INFLUXED. THIS PARCEL OF AIR RISES WHEN THE UPPER WINDS ARE WEAK,THERE IS CAPE PROVIDING POSITIVE BUOYANCY ( PROCESS IN WHICH PARCEL OF AIR RISES) ADIABATICALLY ( A THERMODYNAMIC PROCESS IN WHICH THE HEAT OF A SYSTEM REMAINS CONSTANT)

IF THERE ARE DIVERGING WINDS ( MOVEMENT OF AIR MASS FROM A POINT IN THE SYSTEM INTO THE SURROUNDING) - UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THEN THE LATENT HEAT GETS RELEASED WHICH CAUSES THE THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY WHEN THE WIND SHEARS ARE MINIMAL.

IN ALL-

AIR ENTERS THE SYSTEM IN A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ( LLC) WHICH IS ANTICLOCKWISE OR THE CYCLONIC SPIN IN LOWER LEVELS AND EXITS THE SYSTEM IN A CLOCKWISE REGION OR ANTI-CYCLONIC REGION IN UPPER AIR

FOR MORE UNDERSTANDING CLICK HERE

THUS IF THE GENERAL DEFINITION AND NATURAL SCIENCE SAY THAT FOR A CYCLONE, ITS LOWER PORTIONS HAVE ANTICLOCKWISE SPIN AND THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE CLOCK WISE SPIN WHERE THE HEAT OF SYSTEM IS RELEASED!

IF SO, HOW CAN IMD SAY THERE IS A CYCLONIC ( CLOCKWISE) SPIN AT UPPER LEVELS. IF SUCH THING HAPPENS, WE GET A HIGH PRESSURE REGION AT THE BASE??????????????????

ANOTHER STATEMENT-

"Formation of the offshore trough coupled with an existing upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea and strengthening monsoonal flows complete the evolving ecosystem for the initiation of the tropical storm"

What connection the offshore trough has with upper air cyclonic circulation?

Trough indicates a region of lower atmospheric pressure. What connection the strengthening monsoonal flows have???

THIS MEANS THAT INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT IS USING WRONG CONCEPTS FOR WEATHER FORECASTINGS AND ARE USING ALL CONVENTIONAL ASPECTS!

THIS IS RIDICULOUS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF A COMMON MAN WHO TRUSTS THE DEPARTMENT FOR THE WEATHER FORECAST

METD WEATHER CONDEMNS SUCH BASELESS STATEMENTS FROM THE DEPARTMENT. INDIA NEED A REVOLUTION IN METEOROLOGY!

Update on the Arabian Sea Low!

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

in an unexpected turn in the Tropical Weather system, the previous forecasted low pressure has vanished and the tropical wave has produced another band of thunderstorms in a region of SST over 28C which lacks presence of a lower convergence. This system has strong vortex system at the base,mid level.

Various models confirm that the the forecasted low shall be a Warm Core Low as the warm moist air influxes in the system at lower levels due to torrential heating during spring season.

Low-Mid level vorticity ( Vertical Vorticity) is favorable for upward lifting of parcel of air carrying moisture which is lifted adiabatically and the energy of the parcel is released at the upper level favoring where the system is having a weak upper air divergence ( Outflow of air aloft releasing heat of parcel)

CIMSS models indicate a bare 5-10kt upper air divergence around the system located 730km SW of Mumbai. The area has a wind shear of around 20kt+ and the tendency of wind shear in 24hrs IS INCREASING.
Convection is weakly organized around the geometric center as depicted by higher cloud top temperature of -30C. Typically strong lows ( Depressions) have Cloud Top Temp over -50C.
The 850mb plots are showing developing LLC ( Low level cyclonic circulation) in the region which is a primary step for development of surface lows. The precipitation & surface pressure map shows a formation of 1000mb region by 5th June which shall intensify then. Precipitation map shows formation of weak rain bands in the region after 48hrs. Overall as per the 00z,4th June GFS shows unorganized shape of system.

The GFS Cyclone Prediction maps show the system travelling WNW and expected to make a landfall in coastal Oman on by or on 11th June 2011. The system shall get chance of intensifying in Northern Arabian Sea as the Mid level wind shears have relaxed nature and the upper level winds are forecasted to be weak. The TPW-Precipitable Water shows 60mm+ precipitable water ( Good Moisture content) in the region!

NORMS USED BY METD WEATHER TO DECLARE SOUTH WEST MONSOON

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

NORMS FOR THE ONSET OF MONSOON-

EVERY YEAR,METD WEATHER FORECASTS THE SOUTH-WEST MONSOON FOR INDIA AND THE ONSET DATES AND THE CONSIDERED DATES ARE POSTED OR MARKED ON THE BASIS OF FOLLOWING CONDITIONS-

MONSOON ONSET CONDITIONS AS CONSIDERED BY METD WEATHER

1] PRE-MONSOON SHOWER-

THE RAIN SHOWER/SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM 15 DAYS PRIOR TO MONSOON RAINFALL ARE CONSIDERED AS PRE- MONSOON SHOWER.

ANNUALLY FOR NAGPUR,METD WEATHER ESTIMATES 3-4 SUCH PHASES

2] MONSOON

A) - HEAVY RAINS

THE MONSOON RAINFALL OR THE ONSET OF MONSOON IS CONSIDERED ON THAT DAY WHEN THERE ARE HEAVY RAINS ( *** NOT APPLICABLE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO ANY CYCLONE LANDFALL***).

RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MUST BE MORE THAN 5mm

*** CONVECTIVE RAIN AFTER SUNNY MORNING SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MONSOON RAINS***

B)- WINDS

THE WINDS ( SURFACE-500MB) MUST BE FROM SOUTH-WEST ATLEAST FOR 48HRS AND HAVING INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 10KT IN ALL LEVEL.

( WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST FOR A DAY ARE NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS MONSOON WINDS)

C) MOISTURE

***SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MUST BE GREATER THAN 60% ATLEAST FOR 48HRS

*** THERE MUST BE A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERE IN LAYERS 500MB-900MB ATLEAST FOR 48HRS WITH SATURATION ***

D) AIR PRESSURE

*** SURFACE AIR PRESSURE IN A REGION ( NOT APPLICABLE FOR HILLY REGION) SHALL BE BELOW 1006 MB CONSECUTIVELY FOR 2-3 DAYS. SINCE LESS PRESSURE REGION INDICATES LOCALITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

*** ANY PERIOD WHEN SURFACE AIR PRESSURE GOES ABOVE THE LIMIT SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR MONSOON ONSET***

E) TEMPERATURE

*** SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE MUST DROP TO 35C OR BELOW AFTER PRECIPITATION

*** TEMPERATURE SHALL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MAXIMUM LIMIT AS 35C ( MAX TEMP) ATLEAST FOR 48-72HRS.

*** TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE LIMIT SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR MONSOON ONSET***

F) CLOUDING

*** DUE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE,CLOUDING SHALL BE PRESENT IN THE REGION

*** OVERCAST CONDITION ATLEAST FOR 24HRS CONTINUOUSLY

ANY CLEAR WEATHER DAY WITH ALL THE ABOVE CONDITION POSITIVE ( EXCLUDING RAINFALL) SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR MONSOON ONSET

G) 850MB MOISTURE TRACK FOR NORTHERN LIMITS OF MONSOON

THE NORTHERN LIMITS OF MONSOON SHALL BE ADVANCED ONLY WHEN 850MB MAP SHOWS MOISTURE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY GREATER THAN 60% AND BEING MAINTAINED FOR 2-3 DAYS

THE ABOVE ARE THE CONDITIONS WHICH METD WEATHER HAS BEEN CONSIDERING SINCE LAST 2 YEARS AND REGARD AS THE CORRECT MEASURES TO DETERMINE MONSOON ONSET.

THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPT NORMS ARE DIFFERENT AND HAVE NO CONNECTION TO THE DATES FORECASTED BY METD WEATHER

ALL THE ABOVE PARAMETERS MUST BE THERE FOR THE PERIOD CONSIDERED

ABSENCE OF EVEN ONE PARAMETER SHALL BE A BARRIER FOR DECLARATION ON THE MONSOON

- AKSHAY DEORAS

SW Monsoon Revised dates ( IndiMO III)

SW Monsoon 2011 Revised dates ( IndiMO III)

SW Monsoon shall continue to advance Northward as forecasted in IndiMO II.

The SWM shall reach parts of Western coast of India excluding Gujarat ( Covering all parts by 12th June 2011)

Limit shall be Maharashtra-AP-Karnataka border.

The cyclone shall pull away all monsoon current+ dry phase of MJO.

Remaining Maharashtra- After 26th June 2011

Nagpur- Monsoon Onset shall be by 30th June 2011

Rest part ( Northern India) - First week of July

*** Cyclone shall pull away the monsoon current.

Monsoon shall progress ON TIME for Western Coast of India and areas South of Maharashtra.

*** With Dry phase of MJO, SWM shall be slow during 13-25th June 2011

*** Revival shall happen after that

*** Total Accumulation expected 80-85% ( 15-20% Deficient)

*** Nagpur to get the first pre-monsoon shower by 7th June 2011

*** Possible Onset in Nagpur on 30th June 2011***

*** 900mb plots show good moisture incursion in first half of June which indicates a Weak Monsoon Onset for most of nation ( Including Maharashtra BUT METD WEATHER SHALL NOT CONSIDER IT AS MONSOON THOUGH IMD MAY CLAIM

(C) 2011 METD WEATHER

ALERT FOR POSSIBLE CYCLONE OR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN ARABIAN SEA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Forecast for the Possible Cyclone Formation -

As mentioned in the previous few weather updates, forecast models continue to indicate the formation of a Strong Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea in the first week of June.

GFS,UKMET models agree formation of a Brief Low pressure ( Might be a Cyclone) in Arabian Sea

The persisting area of convection between 75E-80E,5N-15N and having cloud top temperature of -60C,50-100 mb/hr 850mb Vorticity over a 28-30C SST( Sea Surface Temp) and gripped by a 30kt+ Low level convergence ( LLC) is likely to advance further as the low is expected to intensify in a 30kt divergent outflow aloft. There has been a remarkable improvement in the region of convection is past 24hrs as depicted by the increased favorable thermodynamic states of cyclogenesis as well as the the lower convergence and upper divergence. The Total Precipitable Water ( PW) in the area of convection has also increased upto 60mm as the atmosphere circulates due to the presence of a low pressure area aloft in North Western Arabian Sea.

Wind shears don't look a problem for cyclogenesis.

The LLC shall organize by 3rd June 2011 and shall initially track parallel to Western Coast AND PROVIDING -

* ROUGH STATE OF SEA FROM 2ND JUNE TO 7TH JUNE 2011

* HIGH SURFS,GALE WINDS AND HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST DURING THE MOVEMENT

* CHECK THE METD WEATHER ALERT MAP FOR MORE DETAILS

STATEWISE WARNINGS-

KERALA-

VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS SHALL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED THREAT FOR FLOODING TILL 7TH JUNE 2011

*** PEOPLE MUST TAKE CAUTION FOR VISITING BEACHES**

KARNATAKA -

** VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS SHALL HIT THE WESTERN COAST WITH GALE WINDS AND HIGHLY ROUGH STATE OF SEA

*** WATCH OUT FOR STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING POTENTIALS***

** HGH SURF**

WARNING IN EFFECT TILL 8TH JUNE 2011

3] WESTERN TAMIL NADU

HEAVY RAINS TILL 3RD JUNE

** NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE**

4] LAKSHADWEEP

THIS ISLAND SHALL GET VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS,GALE WINDS

** STRONG SURFS**

***PEOPLE ARE REQUESTED TO TAKE PRECAUTION AT THE EARLIEST***

WARNING TILL 8TH JUNE 2011

** MODERATE RAINFALL THEN TO CONTINUE FOR MORE 3-4 DAYS THAT IS TILL 12-13TH JUNE 2011

5] GOA-

HEAVY RAINS ON 4TH JUNE AND 5TH JUNE

THE WINDS ALOFT SHALL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARDS TOWARDS OMEN COAST