Monday, January 24, 2011

Slight Risk of Severe Weather in Florida on Tuesday.Another Nor'easter

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Slight risk of severe weather in Florida on Tuesday

All models are in agreement of surface deepening ( Intensification) of the low pressure moving Eastwards from Southern Rockies very shortly as depicted by the classic shortwave trough at the mid level and by the 80-90kt jets at the mid level over Western Florida.
A developing warm front shall pass through Western Florida and FL areas in the quickly developing LLJ over 40kt with dewpoints extending to upper 60F dewpoint.
Convection will be limited for the NRN FL areas due to the MLCAPE less than 500J/Kg but shall pick up in the warm sector as the MLCAPE peaks to 500-1000J/Kg during late afternoon to evening hours in Florida and enhanced convection likely by night period when LLJ of the order of 30-40kt brings blend of moisture rising dewpoint over 70F.

Development of Vertical shears shall be very high in NRN FL but due to lack of instability, developed line of thunderstorm shall not modify to mesocyclones and supercells
However, by late evening hours in FL, isolated tornado threat shall pick up due to 200 m2 s-2 shears and enhanced thermodynamic conditions for rotations. Damaging winds likely to strike Gulf gulf of Florida.

My tornado target for the day shall be in the Central Florida around Lake Wales,FL

Nor'easter to slam North Eastern States again
The low pressure which is expected to trigger thunderstorms in Florida shall quickly march in the Atlantic ocean and get intensified to a nor easter giving heavy snowfall from Wednesday evening from Virginia to South East Pennsylvania including Washington DC, and later in North at New England and Boston metro on Thursday morning hours with mild blizzardic conditions also likely

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