Friday, January 28, 2011

Multiple Weather Events likely in India

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Multiple Weather events in India over the next few days which includes
1) Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 ( some period on 30th Jan 2011)
2) Chance of formation of a Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal( Already present but intensification by 30th)
3) Possible another snowfall event by 3-4th Feb 2011 in North India

1} Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 and some periods on 30th Jan 2011

A loosely bound western disturbance( Extra-Tropical Cyclone) is situated West-North West of Pakistan as depicted the by decrease in the 500mb height indicating presence of storm at mid levels. GFS 12z runs are in agreement for further intensification of the low pressure and to become a classic shortwave trough over Pakistan-India border sometime tomorrow morning to afternoon.
This Shortwave trough is likely to precipitate snow/rain in N India.
Snowfall is expected in Kashmir valley,Kargil area,Ladakh from now onwards( applicable for Central j&K) whereas for Kashmir valley,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal snowfall shall begin tomorrow afternoon to evening hours and shall be very heavy in Kashmir Valley,Northern Himachal Pradesh and some higher reaches in Uttaranchal.

Lower regions will get rainfall. However light rainfall may happen in Northern Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh but chance with a mild thunderstorm ( Probability of hails also ) at the post evening to night hours and continue on Sunday morning also.

2} Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal
The recent water vapor satellite is indicating a weakly organised convection area to the south of subtropical ridge having cloud tops over -50C. The computer models are indicating that the system shall become more symmetrical ( intensify) in an area of minimum vertical shear( 10kt around) and expected 24hrs nature of decreasing.
Already in the pool of warm SST with favorable upper divergence to permit convection,
if a low level convergence builds up in next 24hrs, then system shall have a well defined structure and possibility of a Depression in next 24hrs.
It depends on Low level convergence, thats why JTWC has not made any update on it

3} Possibility of another snowfall in North India by 3-4th Feb 2011
Well, right now there seems to be a possibility of another western disturbance landing on North India by 3-4th FEb
More details on it later as situation unfurls

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