CRIPPLING WINTER STORM LIKELY IN CENTRAL USA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IN CENTRAL USA

A powerful trough moving from West will intensify into the rockies and hammer the Central states of USA

The GFS maps are showing that the trough will intensify to a classic 120kt jet South-Westerly flow from today evening onwards and producing first snowfall North-East of New Mexico around North of Santa Fe,NM from tonight ( around 9PM) informs of Snow Showers!

Snow Accumulation shall add to upto 6inch!!!!

WINTER WARNING IN SANTA FE TILL 11AM MST WEDNESDAY..

Then snowfall shall begin around Tuesday early morning around Lubbock,TX and shall accumulate to 5inch here.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDCHILL WATCH SHALL CONTINUE TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDCHILL SHALL DROP TEMP TO -5C LOW!

WICHITA FALLS IN TEXAS WILL RECEIVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING AROUND 6INCH! FROM TUESDAY MORNING HOURS

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY TO 6PM TUESDAY CST

As the arctic cold air drives South and the powerful coastal storm system matures into rockies, due to moisture of Gulf of Mexico being driven into NE of Oklahoma due to developing LLJ of 40kt from coastal SE Texas, A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL START THE IMPACT!

AREAS FROM WICHITA FALLS,TX TO MIAMI,OK ( DIAGONAL FIGURE ON MAP)

SHALL GET VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW DUE TO 30 MILES WINDS!

BLIZZARDIC CONDITION IS POSSIBLE HERE

SNOW WILL START FROM MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6PM CST TODAY EVENING TO 6PM CST TUESDAY.

AREAS AFFECTED- OKLAHOMA

LAWTON,NORMAN,OKLAHOMA CITY,TULSA,

EFFECT- TRAVELLING WILL BECOME IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY.

ACCUMULATION- SNOW ACCUMULATION SHALL EXCEED 15INCH ACROSS NE OF OKLAHOMA AND SHALL REACH MORE THAN 24INCH AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON

LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS LIKELY HERE INCLUDING JOPLIN,MISSOURI,SPRINGFIELD,MISSOURI AS THE LLJ PICKS UP TO MORE THAN 50KT NE OF OKLAHOMA AS A POWERFUL LOW DEVELOPS IN NW ARKANSAS!

2} MISSOURI,ILLINOIS,INDIANA,OHIO..... - ICE ACCUMULATION mostly

As the surface low pressure strengthens to 1000mb SE of Missouri, massive and rapid intensification of Low level jets ice light snow showers first shall begin and then accumulation Shall begin in Central Missouri,Illinois,Indiana by evening of Tuesday into early wednesday as the air above surface is at light freezing temperature.

PEAK IMPACTS ON TUESDAY

Areas affected- Fort Smith,St.Louis,Indianapolis.... New York

THUS THE ENTIRE WINTER EVENT SHALL CAUSE LOT OF PROBLEMS TO PEOPLE IN OKLAHOMA,MISSOURI AND OTHER STATES....

II. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH!

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY IN COASTAL EASTERN TEXAS,ALABAMA,LOUISIANA,

areas- HOUSTON,JACKSON(MS),MOBILE,NEW ORLEANS ETC

Multiple Weather Events likely in India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Multiple Weather events in India over the next few days which includes

1) Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 ( some period on 30th Jan 2011)

2) Chance of formation of a Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal( Already present but intensification by 30th)

3) Possible another snowfall event by 3-4th Feb 2011 in North India

1} Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 and some periods on 30th Jan 2011

A loosely bound western disturbance( Extra-Tropical Cyclone) is situated West-North West of Pakistan as depicted the by decrease in the 500mb height indicating presence of storm at mid levels. GFS 12z runs are in agreement for further intensification of the low pressure and to become a classic shortwave trough over Pakistan-India border sometime tomorrow morning to afternoon.

This Shortwave trough is likely to precipitate snow/rain in N India.

Snowfall is expected in Kashmir valley,Kargil area,Ladakh from now onwards( applicable for Central j&K) whereas for Kashmir valley,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal snowfall shall begin tomorrow afternoon to evening hours and shall be very heavy in Kashmir Valley,Northern Himachal Pradesh and some higher reaches in Uttaranchal.

Lower regions will get rainfall. However light rainfall may happen in Northern Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh but chance with a mild thunderstorm ( Probability of hails also ) at the post evening to night hours and continue on Sunday morning also.

2} Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal

The recent water vapor satellite is indicating a weakly organised convection area to the south of subtropical ridge having cloud tops over -50C. The computer models are indicating that the system shall become more symmetrical ( intensify) in an area of minimum vertical shear( 10kt around) and expected 24hrs nature of decreasing.

Already in the pool of warm SST with favorable upper divergence to permit convection,

if a low level convergence builds up in next 24hrs, then system shall have a well defined structure and possibility of a Depression in next 24hrs.

It depends on Low level convergence, thats why JTWC has not made any update on it

3} Possibility of another snowfall in North India by 3-4th Feb 2011

Well, right now there seems to be a possibility of another western disturbance landing on North India by 3-4th FEb

More details on it later as situation unfurls

Slight Risk of Severe Weather in Florida on Tuesday.Another Nor'easter

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Slight risk of severe weather in Florida on Tuesday

All models are in agreement of surface deepening ( Intensification) of the low pressure moving Eastwards from Southern Rockies very shortly as depicted by the classic shortwave trough at the mid level and by the 80-90kt jets at the mid level over Western Florida.

A developing warm front shall pass through Western Florida and FL areas in the quickly developing LLJ over 40kt with dewpoints extending to upper 60F dewpoint.

Convection will be limited for the NRN FL areas due to the MLCAPE less than 500J/Kg but shall pick up in the warm sector as the MLCAPE peaks to 500-1000J/Kg during late afternoon to evening hours in Florida and enhanced convection likely by night period when LLJ of the order of 30-40kt brings blend of moisture rising dewpoint over 70F.

Development of Vertical shears shall be very high in NRN FL but due to lack of instability, developed line of thunderstorm shall not modify to mesocyclones and supercells

However, by late evening hours in FL, isolated tornado threat shall pick up due to 200 m2 s-2 shears and enhanced thermodynamic conditions for rotations. Damaging winds likely to strike Gulf gulf of Florida.

My tornado target for the day shall be in the Central Florida around Lake Wales,FL

Nor'easter to slam North Eastern States again

The low pressure which is expected to trigger thunderstorms in Florida shall quickly march in the Atlantic ocean and get intensified to a nor easter giving heavy snowfall from Wednesday evening from Virginia to South East Pennsylvania including Washington DC, and later in North at New England and Boston metro on Thursday morning hours with mild blizzardic conditions also likely

Snowfall again expected in J&K and Himachal Pradesh

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A minor Western Disturbance is expected to bring snow and rains in J&K on 20th Jan 2011.

Kashmir valley,Kargil,Ladakh will get snowfall and also in Northern and Central Himachal Pradesh.

The recent satellite imagery is showing an intense system having cloud tops upto -30C across the Gulf States. 

This is the western disturbance that shall land on Thursday,20th Jan 2011 in North India bringing some snow. 

Massive Earthquake strikes South Western Pakistan. Tremors felt in India

THE INTENSITY REPORTS FROM DIFFERENT AREAS IN ASIA

THE GRAPH SHOWING DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH RESPECT TO DISTANCE

THE USGC SHAKE MAP SHOWING MAX.EFFECT NEAR THE EPICENTER

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake on richter scale was recorded in the South Western Periphery of Pakistan close to Afghanisthan border area with the epicenter at isolated region at 28.8382N,63.9473E ( of the order of following distances below)

DISTANCE FROM EPICENTER-

45 km (30 miles) W of Dalbandin, Pakistan

260 km (160 miles) W of Kalat, Pakistan
310 km (190 miles) ESE of Zahedan, Iran
1035 km (640 miles) WSW of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan

1290km from New Delhi

1077km from Ahmedabad

1242km from Dharamshala,Himachal Pradesh

TIMINGS OF EARTHQUAKE

Earthquake was reported at 20:23:26UTC ( 18th Jan 2011) i.e 01:23:26AM LT(19th Jan 2011) at epicenter

THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE WAS AROUND 84KM.

( DEPTH OF EARTHQUAKE IS THE AREA WHERE EARTHQUAKE BEGINS TO RUPTURE.

THIS HEIGHT IS RECORDED BELOW SEA LEVEL OR BELOW THE SEISMOLOGY OBSERVATORY)

Tremors of the earthquake were felt at multiple places stretching from Riyadh city,Dubai city,Tehran,Samarkand( Uzbekistan),Kabul,Gwalior( India) and as south as Bangalore( India).

The USGC received responses from -

Dharmashala - Where the Intensity was reported V ( FIVE) ( Moderate Shaking and Light damage expected)

In Pilani, INTENSITY V ( 5) was reported which means Moderate Shaking and minor damage.

Delhi, Gwalior,Noida - Intensity IV( 4) where minor shaking with no damage was recorded

Chandigarh,Jaipur,Jodhpur,Jaisalmer,Mumbai and Bangalore- Intensity- III ( Weak Shaking of the ground and no damage)

The Earthquake's maximum effect ( Intensity ) was reported at

Naushahro Firoz ( In Sindh region),Pakistan and Rudbar in Afghanisthan ( Where INTENSITY WAS VI,6)

In rest areas of the list, Intensty of III,II and I was reported

DAMAGE REPORTS

1} Several Houses were collapsed and damaged in Quetta

** No death reports till yet

2] One person has died due to wall collapse in Pakistan

More damage reports shall be coming as Earthquake must have created extensive damage in Pakistan

3] No casualties reported in India

MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE ( GIVEN BELOW)

COMPARE THE VALUES REPORTED AT PLACES WITH THE DEFINED DAMAGE GIVEN BELOW

I. Instrumental	Not felt by many people unless in favourable conditions.
II. Weak	Felt only by a few people at best, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing.
III. Slight	Felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Many do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibration similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.
IV. Moderate	Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by few people during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rock noticeably. Dishes and windows rattle alarmingly.
V. Rather Strong	Felt outside by most, may not be felt by some outside in non-favourable conditions. Dishes and windows may break and large bells will ring. Vibrations like large train passing close to house.
VI. Strong	Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors, walk unsteadily. Windows, dishes, glassware broken; books fall off shelves; some heavy furniture moved or overturned; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII. Very Strong	Difficult to stand; furniture broken; damage negligible in building of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by people driving motor cars.
VIII. Destructive	Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls Heavy furniture moved.
IX. Violent	General panic; damage considerable in specially designed structures, well designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.
X. Intense	Some well built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundation. Rails bent.
XI. Extreme	Few, if any masonry structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Rails bent greatly.
XII. Cataclysmic	Total destruction - Everything is destroyed. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock move position. Landscape altered, or leveled by several meters. In some cases, even the routes of rivers are changed.

Minimum temperature drops down in Nagpur as cold air incursion happens

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The minimum temp at Nagpur on 17th Jan 2011 at 0530hrs morning was 7.6! The temperature fall down by around 5-6 Degree Celcius as the cold air from the north ( J&K) has hit the central India.

The 850mb maps are still indicating low winds directed from NE since yesterday as from Southern direction few days ago.

This is bringing cold in Nagpur

TEMPERATURE SHALL BE NEAR TO 8C DROPPING LOW TO 7-8C TILL NEXT 48HRS

LOW TEMPERATURE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EVENING 1800HRS TO MORNING 0900HRS

Heavy Snowfall likely in Jammu and Kashmir again

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

** LIGHT SNOWFALL HAPPENING IN SRINAGAR FROM TODAY MORNING**

Another Extratropical Cyclone originated at the Mediterranean sea is likely to hammer J&K again from late period of 13th Jan 2011, on 14th Jan and some morning period of 15th Jan 2011.

Cyclogenesis will again initiate with a classic mid level vortex system building up with negative vorticity over Iran first and then North of Pakistan with the 500mb height as low as 552dam as compared to 582 dam - max height South West of Mumbai on 14th Jan 2011.

Due to more cyclogenesis, the western disturbance will become a large system and will land over Jammu and Kashmir on 14th Jan (as per the 00z GFS,11th Jan) bringing heavy snowfall in the entire high altitude regions in the state including Srinagar city, Pehlgam,Gulmarg,Sonamarg

and less intensity towards Kargil,Ladakh..

High altitude regions in Northern and Central Himachal Pradesh will also get snowfall.

Medium intensity rains will hit Jammu and low altitude regions in J&K,Himachal Pradesh and f rainfall in Punjab and Chandigarh,New Delhi,Haryana from Friday late night period ( THUNDERSTORM)

** SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVY IN KASHMIR VALLEY AND WILL DISRUPT DAILY LIFE AND TRAVELLING OF PEOPLE****

Major Nor'easter all set to cripple some areas in North East USA

The NAM 00z forecast for Snow Depth of Wednesday Morning showing high snow accumulation in MASSACHUSETTS

NAM Surface Wind showing the low pressure at the maximum level

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A powerful low pressure which caused a Winter Storm recently in Southern USA is all set to intensify and hammer NE USA

The GFS computer models are in agreement of intensification of the existing low pressure at present offshore Florida to an extreme level also referred as Bombogenesis. Bombogenesis is very common in period from Oct to March ( As the temperature gradient which is change in air temp with respect to distance is huge) as the cold air mass ( very cold air from arctic) comes in contact with the warm oceans or warm air from another region creating Atmospheric bombs!!

The low pressure will intensify from afternoon period of Tuesday from a stable 1020mb.

resulting in snowfall in Washington DC,Delaware,Maryland,Pennsylvania WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL NEAR TO 3" with strong winds at atlantic coast

MSLP will near to 1016mb meaning a fall of around 4millibar air pressure

The real Bombogenesis will initiate late night on Tuesday when MSLP falls to 1000mb by early Wednesday. Heavy snow will develop in New York,New York City,Philadelphia, Hartford initiating by 0200hrs apx LT on Wednesday and THEN IN MASSACHUSETTS.

Snow depth in New York state shall reach upto 10inch by Wednesday noon and as high as 16inch in MASSACHUSETTS state including areas like Boston(ME),Providence,Portland with heavy snowfall and winds ( Blizzardic condition possible here and New York City)

******DISRUPTIONS IN AIR TRAFFIC AND ALL ROAD,RAILWAY OPERATIONS IS LIKELY IN MASSACHUSETTS (CENTRAL,SOUTHERN,EASTERN) AND SOME AREAS IN NEW YORK CITY.********

26TH DEC 2010 CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN HERE!

The low w'd have reached around 990mb at that time and pressure will intensify more reaching to low of around 980mb at Eastern shore of MASSACHUSETTS adding more snow and winds here.

Winter Watches in effect from Mid Atlantic states to Southern New England which will turn to warnings as the event unfurls.

Intense Cold Wave RE strikes Central India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Intense cold generated due to the snowfall in North India on 29-30 Dec 2010 is arriving in Central India as the low level winds are directed from the north unlike from South which was the case on 31st Dec 2010.

Minimum temperatures have started falling everywhere in Central India and North India

In Delhi, lowest temperature of 3.7C was recorded yesterday early morning hours which was the lowest of the season and few days ago in Leh -23.6C the lowest of the season

In Nagpur minimum temperature recorded was 10.2C yesterday.

Forecast-

Intense cold wave to continue with minimum temperatures around 9C in Nagpur and surroundings in the coming 48hrs

Nagpur minimum temperature forecast-

06/01- 10C

07/01- 09C

08/01- 09C

09/01- 10C

10/01- 12C

* LOW TEMP LIKELY ON THU,FRI