Thursday, December 2, 2010

A new Tropical Cyclone/Depression likely in Arabian Sea

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A new tropical cyclone/depression is likely to form from an existing wide area of convection wrapped by a low pressure stationed around 8N and 65E apx 740Nm East South east of CAPE Guardafui,Somalia
As seen from recent satellite images, intense convection is firing in the vicinity of low ( INVEST) with cloud top temperature around -60C in the region of intense convection. The east winds are keeping the low in a region of SST of 27C, good TPW( Total Precipitable water) and region of upper air diffluence ( divergence) 20kt and increasing low level convergence around 10kt.
Situated in Poor vertical shear region of 10kt at maximum and in the monsoon trough, conditions remain very good for development of this system into a Tropical Depression/Cyclone in next 24-48hrs south of the subtropical ridge.
The LLC is having exposed inner circulation area wrapping up ( strengthening) signs favorable for the Tropical Cyclongenesis with strong 850mb Vorticity !

The GFS cyclone prediction models too predict an intense system having symmetrical deep warm core structure. This cyclone track by 9-10th Dec is close to an area of cooler sea surface temperature and more winds likely pushing the system towards the west coast of India. It will be little early to predict the path....

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