TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

NOW SUPERCELLS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF 2000J/KG MLCAPE IN NE AND CENTRAL LA AND SRN MISSISSIPPI

60% RISK OF TORNADOES AND 40% RISK OF EF2+ TORNADOES AS PER SPC....

PEOPLE IN THIS AREA MUST REMAIN ALERT!

Major Tornado event unfurling in Missouri and Illinois!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

TOP PHOTO-

THE TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE TOWN OF CINCINNATI

CONDITIONS WERE/ARE SIMILAR TO A MODERATE RISK TYPE SETUP

An Insane trough of 140kt is digging in South Central states of USA bringing tremendous risk of Severe Weather with tornadoes widely in Missouri and Illinois.

The threat began when the perfectly destabilized atmosphere over North Eastern Oklahoma-Arkansas border produced supercells in the 2000J/Kg CAPE,Dewpoints upto 55- 60F and blend of low level shears for rotations.

***The tornado in Cincinnati in Arkansas was the killer tornado with unconfirmed reports of around 4 fatalities killing an old couple aged 88 and 78 years old,another old man aged 78 who was a dairy farmer who was milking the cows in the morning***

Reaching an area of Low level jets nearing to 50kt and classic shears,

The Squall line thunderstorm dropped more tornadoes over Robertsville,MO,BYRNES Mill,MO , Sunset Hills also where the tornado caused damage to houses and business.

Recent Tornado 2SW of Petersburg,IL has uprooted large trees and roof tops also!

Weather alerts are being issued on the the blog at the top and the related warning also

( Attached image ( top one) is of the rainwrapped tornado as seen on radar 4 miles NW of Waterloo around 1800hrs GMT

Latest warnings at

www.spc.noaa.gov

SNOWFALL IN INDIA FINALLY!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As per the forecast text and alerted graphic, HEAVY snowfall was reported at multiple places in India especially Kashmir valley and Himachal Pradesh

As per the data recorded

QAZIGUND IN J&K RECORDED A SNOWFALL OF 80CM

SRINAGAR RECORDED A SNOWFALL OF 30CM

GULMARG RECORDED SNOWFALL OF 44CM

PAHALGAM - 40CM

Entire Valley was cut off as flight cancellations were there and the Jammu-Srinagar highway was also non operative due to heavy snowfall

I am not in a mood of writing more on these datas as these pictures ( COURTESY- NDTV) Are really beautiful.

Severe Weather conditions likely in North India on Thursday(30th Dec 2010)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Anticipated Western Disturbance currently forming over a wide area NW of Pakistan

is soon expected to bring lots of Severe Weather over North India starting from 29th Dec 2010

Very Heavy snowfall is expected from 29th Dec 2010 till 31st Dec 2010 over a wide area in Jammu and Kashmir in entire Kashmir valley i.e Sonmarg,Gulmarg,Pahalgam,Zojila pass Stretching to Drass,Kargil

Less intensity snowfall in Ladakh also

* ENTIRE HIGHER REACHES OF HIMACHAL PRADESH like Manali,Rohtang,Kyelong,Baralacha pass other higher passes also

Shimla might get some snowflakes but chance of rains is higher than snowfall as Temperatures in Shimla are still above freezing point!

CONSIDERING SUCH DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH, METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK II ALERT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 1000HRS,29TH DEC 2010 TILL 2300HRS,31ST DEC 2010

HEAVY RAINFALL,HAILS,THUNDERSTOR

As all ingredients are coming in place over Northern Plains ( Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh), very heavy rainfall is likely in these areas.Light rains will begin from evening to night period on 29th Dec 2010 but rainfall will be heavy on 30th Dec 2010

A strong Thunderstorm also expected with chance of HAILS ALSO in these regions as a perfect destabilized atmosphere is in forecast on 30th dec 2010 due to strong low level,mid level vortex system,CAPE and a blend of moisture to support intense convection.

Lightning also possible in these areas so PEOPLE IN PUNJAB,HARYANA,CHANDIGARH MUST TAKE CARE

AND TO THOSE NEAR HILLS ( SITUATED ON SLOPES ESP IN HIMACHAL PRADESH LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR ) PEOPLE MUST WATCHOUT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAINS.

CENTRAL INDIA

Increase in cloud cover with chance of rains is possible in Central India( esp around Vidarbha,Nagpur) from 30th Dec late period and on 31ST DEC 2010 when chance of rainfall persists in Nagpur

( Check FACEBOOK page of METD WEATHER for more details)

So Its going to be SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR IN NORTH INDIA

Extreme Fog in Delhi causing chaos!

(ABOVE- Flight landing at IGI airport Delhi is covered by FOG)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Past 48 hr ( 25th,26th Dec) maximum temperature in New Delhi has been below 20C with maximum temperature recorded on 25th Dec at 16C from 1430hrs to 1630hrs and 17C today at 3PM

Dense,Light for has been there in New Delhi continuously since last 48hrs with very moist air

Min humidity ( Relative) around 70% and max as high as 100%.

Visibility has been widely affected at the New Delhi International airport with extreme flight delays and cancellations

AS PER REPORTS FROM 9PM YESTERDAY TO 12PM TODAY, 50 FLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AND MANY DELAYED.

RAILWAY TIME TABLE ALSO AFFECTED WITH MANY TRAINS DELAYED DUE TO DENSE FOG IN NEW DELHI.

Minimum temperature today was 7C in the capital

Forecast-

FOG WILL CONTINUE for next 24hrs atleast in New Delhi

Northern India LOWS

As Delhi settled at minimum of 7C,

Min.temp recorded on 26th Dec 2010

Shimla at 3.1C

Amritsar at 2.5C

Ludhiana and Bathinda at 4.2C

Patiala at 4.5C

Pathankot at 4.6C

Haryana-

Narnaul at 3.1C

Ambala at 4C

Karnal at 5.4C

Rohtak at 6.1C

Hisar at 6.7C

FORECAST-

HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE REGION ON 29TH NIGHT AND 30TH DEC!

J&K

Leh at -12.6C ( IT WAS -16.4C THE PREVIOUS NIGHT)

KARGIL AT -10C

SRINAGAR-2.1C

PAHALGAM-5.2C

GULMARG-5.8C

FOG IN SRINAGAR ALSO

FORECAST-

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN J&K ON 29TH DEC AND 30TH DEC.

EXPECTED AMOUNT IS MORE TOWARDS KASHMIR VALLEY THAN LADAKH

First SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN INDIA BY 30TH DEC 2010

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Snowfall of the year is in range now for J&K,Himachal Pradesh and higher reaches as a Western Disturbance will bring plenty of rain and snowfall in this region on 29th,30th Dec 2010 (WED-THU).

All ingredients will be coming together between Europe and Asia from Saturday as a large scale mid level trough forms with negative vorticity from the low pressure pulse from Mediterranean sea - typical Western Disturbance.

FORECAST

From Saturday, band of low pressure will initiate over North of Iran at the upper level first. ( SEE LAST IMAGE OR FIRST FROM BOTTOM SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE INITIATING NORTH EAST OF J&K AS SEEN FROM CONCENTRIC CIRCLES IN THE UNSHADED VAST AREA)

As conditions come together for intensification of the low at mid and aloft, A trough will form as air cols down more and more due to lifting process and resulting into a dense parcel of air noted at the 300mb,850mb,500mb plots(SEE FIRST IMAGE FROM TOP) as regions with lower potential heights ( In Northern Hemisphere) For this system, the 500 mb height shall be around 564mb out of 570mb in the same longitude zone.

Amplification of trough will continue resulting in the formation of a well marked Western Disturbance landing at the North India region by 29th Dec 2010 (WED). (SEE SECOND IMAGE FROM TOP. SHAPE SIMILAR TO A TROUGH AT 500MB)

Rainfall in plain regions and SNOWFALL IN HILLY REGIONS LIKE ( SEE THIRD IMAGE FROM TOP)

KASHMIR VALLEY,SRINAGAR CITY,KARGIL DIST,LADAKH AND ENTIRE NORTHERN JAMMU AND KASHMIR WILL RECEIVE GOOD SNOWFALL AND HEAVY AS PER THE PRESENT FORECAST.

THIS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SNOWFALL THAT THESE AREAS GET DURING WINTER

IN HIMACHAL PRADESH ALSO,SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN ON Wednesday LATER PERIOD ,THURSDAY ( DURATION APPLIES TO J&K ALSO)

SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORM IN PLAINS

NORTHERN PLAINS LIKE PUNJAB,HARYANA,DELHI AND OTHER PLACES WILL GET RAINFALL MOSTLY FROM 29TH DEC LATE PERIOD AND ON 30 TH DEC 2010. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS THEY AIR AS THE AIR AT 850MB DOESN'T SHOW ANY MOISTURE HOLDING CAPACITY ( MEANING DRYNESS IN AIR.

Snowfall likely in Ladakh and Kashmir valley on Thursday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A possible Western Disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmir from today late period to Thursday mainly and some period on Friday

the GFS weather models are indicating that a western disturbance or extratropical cyclone( low pressures) originating in the Mediterranean sea which are carried by Jet streams will cause precipitation in the form of Snow in much of J&K

The Snow-Rain line indicator of the 850mb map is slipping southwards covering areas around Kargil Valley,Kashmir valley and some areas around Leh and NE of J&K

Snowfall is likely on Thursday in areas prominently Gulmarg,Sonamarg,Pahalgam,Kargil,Dras,

and Leh area.So KASHMIR VALLEY WILL BE GETTING SOME SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY INTENSE COLD IN THE REGION

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS POST, A SPECIAL FREEZE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR J&K AS TEMP ARE EXPECTED TO BE -6 TO -8C IN SRINAGAR AND UPTO -21C IN LADAKH ESP LEH

** SNOWFALL ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGHER REACHES OF J&K and POSSIBLE TRACE AMOUNT IN SRINAGAR CITY. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN SRINAGAR

COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE MON-TUE IN NAGPUR

COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE IN NAGPUR ON 20TH DEC-21ST DEC 2010 NIGHT - DAWN PERIOD

TEMP MIGHT DROP TO 7C OR THE FORECASTED 8C IN NAGPUR

WINTER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NAGPUR FROM 2100HRS(20TH DEC 2010) TO 0900HRS,21ST DEC 2010
** THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS TEMP REACHES 18C AT 2100HRS!

-

METD WEATHER WARNING ISSUED ON Facebook

Nagpur minimum temperature forecast-

21/12- 8C (POSSIBLE 7C)

22/12- 10C

23/12 - 10C

24/12- 11C

25/12- 11C

Weather update for India for week ( 20-27th Dec 2010)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The datas from National Ice Center has confirmed snowfall in Leh on Friday-Saturday ( 17-1th Dec 2010). The predicted WD brought some snowfall in Ladakh and extreme NE of J&K

( SEE THE FIRST IMAGE OF 17TH DEC AND SECOND IMAGE OF 18TH DEC SHOWING INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNT IN LADAKH AND SOME AREAS IN HIGHER REACHES OF HIMACHAL PRADESH)

No more WD expected in next few days.

Some lows reported-

SRINAGAR AT -5.6C ON SUNDAY

SRINAGAR WITNESSED THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO -5.6C.

temperature at 8AM today was -4C

* LEH AT -17.2C

* KARGIL AT -11C

*PAHALGAUM AT -7C

*GULMARG WAS AT - 7.5C

I BET DRASS TO BE AROUND -20C OR SO

Amritsar reported a low temperature of 3C on Sunday and Saturday and 4C on Friday.

( Below temp recorded on Saturday)

Chandigarh at 5.1C

Ludhiana at 3.9C

Patiala at 5.5C

Ambala at 4.3C

Hisar at 4.2C

Narnaul at 3.4C

Shimla at 2.7C

New Delhi at 7C

Temperatures in Maharashtra

Pune at 8.5C on Sun

Wardha at 4.7C on Sun

Nagpur at 9C on Sun

Nashik at 7C on Sun

Expected Weather in Central,Northern India

FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS STATE FROM MONDAY( 20TH DEC 2010) TILL THE WEEKEND (26TH DEC 2010)

ESP SRINAGAR,LADAKH,HIGHER REACHES.

1] Jammu and Kashmir region

Decrease in minimum temperature ( STEEP TEMPERATURE FALL) is likely in the entire state from Wednesday-Thursday(22-23rd Dec 2010)

Temp upto -6,-7C likely in Srinagar on Tuesday,Wednesday,Thursday ( 21st,22nd,23rd Dec 2010) and likewise at Leh,Kargil,Drass,other areas also

TEMPERATURE UPTO OR AROUND -20 TO -21C POSSIBLE IN LADAKH ESP LEH AFTER TUESDAY ( 21ST DEC 2010)

No snowfall is possible in this week in this state. ISOLATED CHANCE OF SNOW IN KASHMIR VALLEY on Sunday.CHANCE ONLY 2-3%

2] Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh,New Delhi

Decrease in Temperature is possible in these areas also in the coming week

Forecast showing Amritsar can have temp nearing to 2C by Saturday( 25th Dec 2010)

Temperature expected to be the same till Tuesday or Wednesday and then fall will be experienced as North India (J&K) gets cooled down at sudden!

3] HIMACHAL PRADESH

Decrease in minimum temperature is likely after 22nd Dec 2010

Till that time steady temperature

4] CENTRAL INDIA ( MAHARASHTRA ESPECIALLY)

Minimum Temperatures in Central India are expected to be similar to what had been in past 24-48hrs. Wardha might see some more drop in temp till Wednesday( 23rd dec 2010)

A RELIEF FROM WINTER IN SIGHT!

The GFS forecast are showing that a HP ( high pressure area) is likely to build over Central India 21st Dec onwards. This high pressure area will surely increase the minimum temperature in Central India from Wednesday ( 22nd dec 2010 onwards) by 2-3C

So Nagpur which has temperature around 9C will get temperature around 11C

Minimal effect likely on Western Coast and Pune during this period.

In all,

Jammu and Kashmir,Punjab to witness more cool nights while Nagpur and central India slightly warmer nights at that period.

HEATHROW AND GATWICK airports closed due to heavy snowfall in UK

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Following Very heavy snowfall in UK, Heathrow and Gatwick airports have been closed for some hours as snow has covered the runway.

Gatwick airport is expected to remain close atleast till 1700hrs! Heathrow also expected to remain close till around the same time.

Merseyside in UK reported 12-18cm snow accumulation and southwest England and Wales, with 5 to 10 cm widely with some parts receiving 15 cm. The snow will spread into parts of southeast England and the south Midlands during the day, with further significant accumulations likely

MY FRIEND ANDY ROWLANDS REPORTED 5" OF SNOWFALL FROM HIS HOME IN BIRMINGHAM,UK

IT AMOUNTS TO 127MM!!

SNOWFALL HEADED FOR FRANCE ON SUNDAY!

http://www.jackbristol.com/newscentre/uk-news/gatwick-and-heathrow-close-their-runways-15858408

FOR VIDEO FROM LONDON!

No Argentina Forecasts this year! Temperature drops severely in India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Due to very active and persistent La Nina in the equatorial pacific,Tornado season in Argentina is widely affected as the moisture contents over Argentina are carried away in the seas due to the winds unlike the neutral or El Nino years.Lot of Dry weather is persistent in the Argentina Pampas and as a result of which rainfall has gone away!

Soy and cotton crops require rainfall at the end of the year but due to La Nina, crops are getting affected this season

Due to this, METD WEATHER will not forecast this year's Argentina season as we did in 2009-2010. The team of TornadoVideos.Net ( TVN) including my close friend Reed Timmer will not be chasing down south unlike the previous year. 

So we all will miss the clockwise rotating tornadoes there!!

TEMPERATURE IN NAGPUR DROPS TO 8.5C ON THURSDAY( 16TH DEC 2010) 

Temp. in Nagpur dropped to 8.5C as per IMD value on Thursday becoming the lowest temperature of this season!

WARDHA RECORDED A TEMPERATURE OF 5.2C THE SAME DAY!

YAVATMAL RECORDED A TEMP OF 7.2C

BELOW ARE TEMP RECORDED DURING 15TH,16TH,17TH DEC

LUCKNOW RECORDED TEMP OF 5.6C ON THURSDAY

LUDHIANA WAS AT 3C 

AMRITSAR HAD TEMP OF 4.2C

PATIALA HAD TEMP OF 5C

AMBALA HAD 3.5C TEMP 

NARNAUL,HARYANA WAS AT 3.6C

ROHTAK WAS AT 5.1C

CHANDIGARH WAS AT 5.7C

LEH WAS AT -13.4 C ON 15-16TH DEC 

SRINAGAR AT -3.3C

GULMARG AT -3.6C ON WED-THU

KARGIL AT -11.2 C

I BET DRASS AROUND -15C OR SO

TEMP WAS IN BETWEEN -15C AND -25C IN HIGHER REACHES OF J&K LIKE KHARDUNGLA PASS,CHANGLA  PASS OR SO IN LEH REGION! 

THE 850MB LINE INDICATING THE 0C LINE OVER LEH REGION AND EXTREME NE OF J&K. SO SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN NEXT 36HRS IN LEH

( CHECK ATTACHED IMAGE) 

Reason for Absence of Significant snowfall in J&K since two month

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Since December 2010, NO significant western disturbance has landed over Northern India

I had forecasted a western disturbance on Oct 20 2010 which brought significant snowfall in Kashmir valley and was the first snowfall of the period. After that, no such reports have arrived as no western disturbance generated had landed over Northern India

The GFS models have been indicating W.D generation and consequent snowfall/rains due to them. But the WD are passing North of Jammu and Kashmir since Oct 2010.

The snow depth maps indicate more snow North of Jammu and Kashmir than in the state itself

Reason- ( See the 2010 WINTER FORECAST FOR DETAILS. All answers embedded in that write up @ http://metdweather.blogspot.com/2010/11/2010-winter-forecast-for-india.html

Reason no 1]

LA NINA cold episodes

As was mentioned in the 2010 Winter Forecast, LA NINA cold episodes cause warmer winters in Extreme North ( J&K) . These cold episodes bring severe cold in Northern Plain state

s,Central India,Gujarat,Western Coast.

SO THERE WAS A MASSIVE COLD WAVE IN GUJARAT WHERE TEMP DROPPED TO 8C IN SURAT FEW DAYS BACK

Also, Drier winters are experienced in J%K than normal winters due to LA NINA Jet streams intensification. So less precipitation was bound to happen up there is now.

METD WEATHER FORECAST PROVES CORRECT

Relating to TIBET HIGH PRESSURE belt

Jet streams which carry these WD from Europe to Asia are still flowing in a Zonal flow indicating absence of extratropical storm. Winds aloft due to blocking high pressure over TIBET have NW or Northerly flow over Central India.

METD WEATHER FORECAST PROVES CORRECT.

2]

Secondly RELATIVELY LESS extra tropical storms( WD) are originating

in Mediterranean sea. Europe is getting hammered by the Atlantic lows and these lows are dying off after precipitating heavily in Europe

3] NEGATIVE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE

This parameter was not included in 2010 Winter forecast as I had not expected IOD to be Negative till so late. Neg IOD sends lesser convective activity over North India giving less Winter rains or Snowfall in extreme north of India

New models

The recently issued graphics from JAMSTEC of the Precipitation Anomaly is showing a Schematic Negative Indian Ocean Dipole in the precipitation models

Check the image above-

Blue and Red colors making a dipole in Indian Ocean

DJF Temp outlook as issued on 1st Dec 2010

DJF outlook ( December,January,February) outlook still Indicating Cooler than normal winter in Rest of India except J&K

You can see the RED ( More than AVG temperature in Jammu and Kashmir)

PROOF OF ACCURATE 2010 WINTER FORECAST OUTLOOK OF INDIA

The Image at right is the 850mb Air temperature map. The DARK BLACK LINE is the 0C line which is a divider between Rain and SNOW

Its December mid but still the 0C line has not covered Northern India meaning that Air is still warmer than 0C ( AS THE FORECAST MENTIONED FOR 1C ABOVE AVG)

Surface temp are low in J&K but atmospheric temperature at 850mb is still warm to convert rain to snow and also NO MOISTURE PRESENT FOR IT

Cold wave conditions in North,West and Central India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Cold wave conditions are continuing in Northern areas of India and some areas of Gujarat

IMD reports from Rajkot indicated 8.9C temperature as the lowest after 8th Dec 2010 AND 4C BELOW NORMAL.

The mercury level dropped to 3.3 degrees celsius in Naliya, 12.3 degrees celsius in Deesa and

-1.6C in Mount Abu on Friday.

From North India

Saturday was the coldest day for Delhi city when temperature settled at 6.2C at minimum.

Narnaul in Haryana had temperature of 2.5C

Hisar had temperature of 4C

Rohtak had 4.8C

Karnal had 6.2C

Gurgaon - 6C

Ambala-8C

In Punjab, Amritsar had lowest temperature of 5.8C

Ludhiana,( My favorite place for winters in North India) had temp of 8.4C

Patiala-7.8C

In Jammu and Kashmir,

Srinagar had coldest day on Saturday with temp recorded of -5.2C

Pahalgam had -5.6C

Leh had -16C

Kargil had -10C

And Drass which is the SECOND COLDEST INHABITED PLACE IN THE WORLD must have temp of -20C

At night period, some portions of Dal Lake started to freeze but in sunshine the freezing went away.

Such cold weather is expected throughout the season

Some relief ( rise of minimum temperature around 1C is likely in next 48hrs)

Temperature fall again expected from Tuesday-Wednesday onwards.

Reason for such COLD WAVE

Direct winds from North pulling cool air over North India is causing such cold weather. Cold winds also moving towards Gujarat.

( SEE SECOND IMAGE ATTACHED AT TOP)

WESTERN COAST OF MAHARASHTRA ALSO FACING THE COLD

17.8c in Santa Cruz area in Mumbai. People are sleeping without their fans switched on

PUNE HAS TEMP AROUND 14-15C AT MINIMUM

NASHIK HAD TEMP OF 9C TODAY MORNING!

Vidarbha the next place!!!

With temp above 18C from 8th Dec 2010, Vidarbha is the next place for the winter

As on 6th Dec 2010, temp was 12C in Nagpur but moisture followed by rainfall on 7th and 8th and humidity over 70%, Northerly winds are making their way in Nagpur

The expected Temp ( Min.) forecast for Nagpur is

12/12- 15C

13/12- 14C

14/12- 13C

15/12- 13C

16/12- 12C

Two days of Rainfall in Nagpur. Moisture bringing conditions like June-July

As predicted by METD WEATHER,

Rains lashed city in light strength on 7th and 8th Dec. Rainfall on 7th dec was TRACE with bare accumulation of 0.1mm and rainfall on 8th Dec was around 1mm..

As seen from the above 00z,8th Dec 850mb GFS, The system from the bay of bengal continued to deposit moisture over Central India as well as Southern India with low pressure around Chennai.These increase atmospheric moisture caused rains in Nagpur on these two days

Forecast-

As the moisture trend continues,

OVERCAST - Mostly cloudy conditions on Thursday,Friday.

5% chance of rains on Thursday

2% chance of rains on Friday

** See latest alerts on the first page of blog for more updated information

Minimum temp to be around 20C till 12th Dec so WINTER ALMOST on the backfoot

The day weather ( excluding direction of winds) is similar to typical monsoonal June-July

North East low pressure in USA to pull blast of cool air !

GFS of 06z,Monday valid till 24hrs showing both the systems.

Low pressure is seen North East USA and High pressure over the North Central USA.

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

North East USA is going to experience the blast of cool air as High pressure-Low pressure system brings this effect. A high pressure North Central states which previously was in CANADA will center over North Central USA laying over Iowa.A low pressure which at present is in Atlantic will move inland in next 24hrs at the extreme North East of USA. As these two pressure systems begin to interact, very cold arctic air will be pulled towards the low pressure area resulting in a Blast of cool air over Mid Atlantic states.

Minimum temperatures will drop more as the high pressure skips to Canada and bringing a direct wind from North in these states. Temperatures will be near 20F or -6C in areas like District of Colombia,Maryland,Northern and Eastern Virginia,New Jersey.

So 06,07,08,09th Dec will be very cold.

Arabian Sea low update and moisture for central India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

What was predicted by GFS as intense cyclone, is now looking to be just a low pressure in the Arabian Sea in next few days. The low is 1004mb right now. Given the pool of warm sea surface temp but less other conditions for strengthening, I expect this low pressure to hit Goa with some rains by 10th Dec..

MOISTURE for Central India

The low pressure in Bay of Bengal is now moving inland and bringing a "wall" of moisture in Central India from eastern side. As the low moves in, the winds at lower level will be from east side for some days ( 7th,8th,9th Dec) which means minimum temperature in Nagpur will rise to 19C from intense 12C at present. Isolated chance of rainfall exists which will be specified in Facebook page updates.

After this moisture moves away, around 10th Dec, temp will start falling back.

Existing low in Arabian will be replaced by a new low. This one has chance of becoming a Cyclone

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

MARK II ALERT IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA FROM 6TH DEC 2010

Increased in the vertical shear around the region of the Arabian low pressure has caused a lot of disorganization in the structure of the low pressure. As a result, JTWC has predicted a poor chance of Tropical Cyclone formation in next 24hrs.This Low pressure will DIE FOR SURE WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS.

The latest guidance from GFS is indicating that the ANOTHER low will FORM more westwards ( due to more push from winds from west especially upper level) in the periphery of monsoon trough south of subtropical ridge.

Conditions as depicted by GFS look good again for cyclogenesis from 6-7th Dec 2010 as low moves in a pool of SST of 30C which is very good for intense convection and growth of storm.

If it happens, this low will sweep parallel to western coast of India pulling winds from near High pressure,making the 850mb wind flow in Central and Southern India from South,South West and forsure depositing lot of moisture as well.

As per GFS cyclone models, this low pressure has a good chance to become a Tropical cyclone AFTER 8TH DEC 2010. The path of this cyclone looks very identical to Cyclone Phyan which was a cyclone in Arabian close to India during November 2009. Phyan had dumped lot of rainfall in Maharashtra west.

Right now, it looks that this system will make a

FIRST AND THE STRONGEST LANDFALL OR NEAR LANDFALL IN LAKSHADWEEP ON 9TH DEC 2010.Second landfall during evening of 10th dec 2010 somewhere near North of GOA state. Most likely it will not hit Gujarat and Mumbai also!

I am also attaching a Alert map for this system which will BE UPDATED REGULARLY AS NEW DATAS ARRIVE FROM GFS PREDICTION SYSTEM

Very heavy rains likely in Coastal Southern and South Eastern India on Saturday and Sunday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A low pressure system from the bay of bengal is expected to make its way slamming South East India around Saturday late period bringing very heavy rains and possible flooding potentials in Southern India. Areas include ENTIRE COASTAL TAMIL NADU,PONDICHERRY,SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND SOUTHERN TIP OF KERALA.

THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINS WILL STRIKE ON SATURDAY,SUNDAY

PEOPLE MUST PREPARE ACCORDINGLY

A new Tropical Cyclone/Depression likely in Arabian Sea

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A new tropical cyclone/depression is likely to form from an existing wide area of convection wrapped by a low pressure stationed around 8N and 65E apx 740Nm East South east of CAPE Guardafui,Somalia

As seen from recent satellite images, intense convection is firing in the vicinity of low ( INVEST) with cloud top temperature around -60C in the region of intense convection. The east winds are keeping the low in a region of SST of 27C, good TPW( Total Precipitable water) and region of upper air diffluence ( divergence) 20kt and increasing low level convergence around 10kt.

Situated in Poor vertical shear region of 10kt at maximum and in the monsoon trough, conditions remain very good for development of this system into a Tropical Depression/Cyclone in next 24-48hrs south of the subtropical ridge.

The LLC is having exposed inner circulation area wrapping up ( strengthening) signs favorable for the Tropical Cyclongenesis with strong 850mb Vorticity !

The GFS cyclone prediction models too predict an intense system having symmetrical deep warm core structure. This cyclone track by 9-10th Dec is close to an area of cooler sea surface temperature and more winds likely pushing the system towards the west coast of India. It will be little early to predict the path....

What is causing A SEVERE COLD IN EUROPE?

ATTACHMENTS-

TOP IMAGE- HIGHWAY SOMEWHERE IN EUROPE COVERED WITH INTENSE SNOW COVER

SECOND IMAGE- THE 00UTC,DEC 1 SURFACE AIR PLOT.HIGH PRESSURE IS THE 1037MB OVER BALTIC AND MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SETUP IN SOUTH. COLD FRONT ALSO SWEEPED ACROSS MUCH OF EUROPE DROPPING DOWN TEMPERATURE ALSO

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe weather Forecaster

Intense bulk of cool air has gripped Europe causing very very heavy snowfall, extreme low

temperatures, strong winds ( Typical Blizzard conditions) in most of the Europe including UK

Extreme low temperatures were recorded in Scotland,Poland,UK and in Trondheim,Norway ( after 222 years almost!!)

Temperature of -21C was recorded in Poland. Rest of the Europe continues to shiver with day time temperatures in negative range with INTENSE WINDCHILL

( SEE THE LEFT IMAGE- WINDCHILL MAP OF 12AM UTC,2ND DEC 2010)

Airports like Gatwick airport and Edinburg airport,Geneva International Airport were closed as the runway was covered with snow. Delays in flight schedule were there in Frankfurt,Zurich ,UK's Glasgow airport also! Around one third of total rail network in UK came faced cancellations and delays. Official reports indicate more than 10 cm now in parts of southeast England, locally more, with between 20 and 30, locally 45 cm in parts of North Lincolnshire.

The Reason for such intense conditions in Europe!

During the month of November, Europe receives winds from West which

bring mild winters in this period. In last week of November, an active High pressure area (1030mb) got formed over Baltic states. This happens during the winters and had happened last year.. Multiple low pressure systems were created in Southern and South Eastern Europe. As Winds blow from high pressure area to low pressure area,westerly winds have turned to North-westerly winds and have brought cool arctic air over mainland of Europe. As seen from this attached Surface plot and the jet streams, jets have been blocked due to high pressure. They are now moving through the southern areas carrying moisture from Atlantic and Cool arctic air from the north.

(RIGHT- THE FIRST IMAGE SHOWING JET STREAM BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOTE THE STRONG 140MPH JET BLOWING THROUGH SOUTHERN STATES CARRYING COOL AIR FROM NORTH

SECOND IMAGE-

COURTESY- ACCUWEATHER.COM

A BETTER GRAPHICAL IMAGE DEPICTING THE TEXT I WROTE ABOVE)

Such severe condition is now in final stage. Normal conditions are expected in Europe from Friday onwards... Sunshine again will be there in many areas as the winds return back in westerly track! WEEKEND SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS IN EUROPE

FOR DAILY WEATHER, visit Europe Meteorological Dept websites.