Sunday, February 14, 2010

RAINFALL ALERT FOR MONDAY<15TH FEB> TO WEDNESDAY<17TH FEB 2010> IN NAGPUR

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS-

ALERT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL
AT THE 200M BLEVEL,THERE IS A STRONG DIVERGENCE OF THE FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WHICH WILL LEAD TO STORNG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WHICH TENDS TO BRING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH UNSEASONABLE 95-100KT JET IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING OUT OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TSTORMS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RIGHT NOW IN THE UPPER NORTH. THE MAXIMUM VELOCITY AREAS ARE SURROUNDED BY TH DIVERGENCE ZONE. SO IT IS NOTHING OUT AT 500MB LEVEL WHICH SAYS THERE WILL BE A RIDEG IN NAGPUR. 
AN UPPER LEVEL FORECASTING IS SURE FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN NAGPUR THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY
THE UPPER ZONE WILL MEET THE SURFACE LEVEL BY AFTERNOON<2-3PM> THIS MEANS THE ONSET OF RAINFALL. I CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE FOR RAINS BY 3PM AS THE TWO CONSECUTIVE MODELS SHOW UPGRADATION OF THE THE ZONE OF LESS TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE ZONE.
AN INSTABILITY OF 100-200J/KG WILL CREATE STRENGTHINING. 30MM WATER WILL BE PRESENT AT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR RAINS ON THE GROUND

MONDAY, 3PM 
RAINS WILL START AND CONTINUE TILL NIGHT.
TUESDAY,
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLY MORNING ITSELF AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM BY EVENING
WEDNESDAY- CLEAR

TOTAL RAINFALL EXP 4-5MM/DAY
MAX WIND TO BE 11KM/HR

HOURLY OBSERVATIONS WILL BE ISSUED BY ME AFTER OBSERVING THE CLOUDS AND THEIR DECEND.

STAY SAFE AND ENJOY A LITTLE DIP IN TEMP 

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