Sunday, February 7, 2010

Possible Hail outbreak over North-Western India

METD Weather
Akshay Deoras


To predict hails for USA has become easy but for India,it is challenging. Thanks to the NCEP weather models which have the facility of showing the CAPE models
Hails come from Severe thunderstorm when sufficient instability is present in the atmosphere and atmosphere is cool enough to form ice.
usually in USA Hails start at 750J/Kg onwards and as CAPE increases LARGE HAILS come from supercells. Hails are considered as an indicator for Tornado touchdowns as hails fall down when the strong Updrafts blow up the hails upto the cloud and updraft disappears when hail falls down . Similar to tornado. 

For north india, Tuesday will be a stormy day as as being seen in the Models a strong thunderstorm will smash North. this storm system will be pumping the moisture all the way from the arabian and CAPE will be abt 750-1000J/Kg round in pakistan. This will be pushed to North India on 9th Feb and simultaneously a a large trough will arrive with strong positive vorticities and it will react with T.storms. THE PRESENT MODEL RUN shows that a strong CAPE of  1500J/Kg will be present over central Jammu and Kashmir and some parts of himachal Pradesh. if we see the 500mb forecast some intense thunderstorm will be present
I call it a 20% chance of HAIL at the areas of Centrl J&k and some parts of Himachal

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