INDIA
CONCERNING HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH AN BLIZZARD WARNING
THE PRESENT GFS MODEL RUN OF 4TH FEB IS IMPRESSIVE FOR A FINAL WRITE-UP OF THE WARNING. ONCE MORE TIME IN 15 DAYS HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALL SET TO HAPPEN IN NORTH INDIA
A BLIZZARD IS A CONDITION WHERE THERE ARE HIGH WINDS AND STORNG BLOWING SNOW FOR MORE THAN 3HRS WITH LOW VISIBILITY.THE WIND HAS TO BE MORE THAN 40KM/HR<AS PER CANADA>
INDIA IS GOING TO HAVE MANY BLIZZARDS...
BLIZZARD WARNING...........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FROM SUN,MON,TUE
1[ SNOWFALL WILL START RIGHT FROM MORNING OF FRIDAY AND WILL INCREASE.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY WILL WITNESS T.STORM WITH HIGH WINDS
2] PEOPLE ARE INFORMED TO MAKE WHATEVER PREPARATIONS TOMORROW ONLY FOR PREPARING HEVY TO VERY HEAVY SNOW FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT
3] WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 32KM/HR DURING THE HIGH TIME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVERYWHERE
SPECIAL FOR DRAS WHERE THE WINDS BE 40KM/HR ON TUEDAY
4] SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HALT FOR SOMETIME ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN BACK ON TUESDAY
5] LANDSLIDES WARNING....
MODEL RUNS
4TH FEB
THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAPPEN ABOVE MEDITERRANEAN SEA CAUSING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ADVANCE MORE AND SPREAD NORTH-SOUTH WARDS WITH A DROP OF ABOUT 42DAM FOR THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT THE 500MB LEVEL.
5TH FEB
THE TROUGH WILL POSITION SOUTHWARDS AND WILL TEND TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
ON THE SAME DAY,A GOOD NEGATIVE VORTICITY SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT OVER NORTH EAST TO EASTERN STATES LIKE HIMACHAL PRADESH AND SURE TO CAUSE SNOW IN MANALI,ROHTANG PASS,KYELONG WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT TO CONVERT RAIN TO SNOW.
THE FIRST WARNING FOR LIGHT SNOW IS 5TH FEB 2010 FOR MANALI,KYELONG,DRAS,BARALACHA PASS,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PEHALGAM AND ADJOINING AREAS OF LOW TEMPERATURE COUPLED BY MODERATE WINDS OF 21KM/HR
6TH FEB 2010,
SATURDAY
THE TROUGH COMES CLOSER TO INDIA AND A SEPARATE CHANNEL OF TROUGH STARTS FORMING. THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD SNOWFALL ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN AT THE ABOVE AREAS.
THE RATE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TILL MONDAY
WARNING FOR MODERATE SNOW IS 6TH FEB 2010 FOR MANALI,KYELONG,DRAS,BARALACHA PASS,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PEHALGAM AND ADJOINING AREAS OF LOW TEMPERATURE COUPLED BY MODERATE WINDS OF 18KM/HR
SRINAGAR TOO WILL WITNESS SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURE DIPS MORE
7TH FEB 2010
SUNDAY
BLIZZARD WARNING
THE SUNDAY MODELS NATURALLY WILL BE BETTER
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 5-6MM CAUSING ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW. SUNDAY INCLUDES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORNING
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IS 7TH FEB 2010 FOR MANALI,KYELONG,DRAS,BARALACHA PASS,GULMARG,SONMARG,PEHALGAM AND ADJOINING AREAS OF LOW TEMPERATURE COUPLED BY MODERATE WINDS OF 21KM/HR.
ON 7TH ANOTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER AFGHANISTHAN CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BE AMPLIFIED MORE
8TH FEB 2010
BLIZZARD WARNING
MONDAY
MONDAY IS THE REAL SHOW WITH ALL THE PARAMETERS EXCEEDING THE LIMITS
AS EXPECTED, MANALI WILL RECEIVE SNOW<WATER EQUIVALENCE OF 26.95MM
ALL THE ABOVE AREAS ONCE MORE ALERTED FOR HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
THE REAL SHOW WILL BE HIMACHAL PRADESH AND JAMMU AND KASHMIR
MONDAY MORNING IT IS SURELY GOING TO SNOW VERY HEAVILY WITH HIGH WINDS OF 25KM/HR ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE THUNDERSTORM WILL ARRIVE IN J&K AND HIMACHAL CAUSING LIGHTNING,WIND AND RAINS. THIS WILL HALT THE SNOWFALL AS WHEN CENTER OF THE CORE IS A NON PRECIPITABLE AREA.
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DECREASE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY BUT A NEW TROUGH FORMED DUE TO THIS MAIN ZONE WILL CAUSE ANOTHER SNOW DAY ACROSS EVERYWHERE FROM J&K TO HIMACHAL.
AGAIN IT WILL BE A MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGH WINDS
9TH FEB TUESDAY
BLIZZARD WARNING SLIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL WITNESS MODERATE SNOWFALL AND HIGH WINDS
SOME WILL BE 40KM/HR AT DRAS AND SIMILAR FOR KYELONG
STAT SAFE
AS THIS IS GOING TO BE INSANE!!!!!
