Double trouble heading for Jammu and Kashmir

BLOG EDITION- http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/double-trouble-heading-jammu-and-kashmir

*** THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION *** 

*** Considering the approaching rainfall event, we advise the people to suspend their travel to ‪#‎Srinagar‬, ‪#‎Kashmir‬ till April 6th *** 

*** This is a brief pause of rains. People should not get misguided by it and ignore warnings as similar weather conditions will start from Wednesday, 1st April 2015*** 

After a brief pause, heavy rains will resume on Wednesday

March started with a bang. It will also end with a bang. More rains are on the way for Jammu and Kashmir. The anticipated western disturbance and upper air trough have produced heavy rainfall in the state, particularly in the Kashmir valley and in and around Jammu.

In the past 24 hours (till 8:30 am IST on March 30), Katra had received heavy rainfall, measuring 139 mm. It was followed by 124 mm at Batote in Ramban district, 98.1 mm in Jammu, 72 mm in Banihal, 70 mm in Qazigund, 58 mm (precipitation) in Pahalgam, 50.6 mm in Srinagar, 40.1 mm in Gulmarg and 65.8 mm in Bhaderwah in Doda district . While the absolute amounts seem too low to trigger floods, the topography of the state makes it more vulnerable to flooding.Urbanisation has led to the collapse of natural drainage systems in Srinagar, causing an increase in water logging.

Reports of floods are emerging from Srinagar and other areas. Many areas in Jammu have been waterlogged due to rains. Mudslides have been reported from areas like Budgam and the state government has declared a flood. Two teams of 100 personnel of the National Disaster Response Force have been sent to Srinagar and hundreds of people have already been evacuated. Landslides have also been reported on the Jammu-Srinagar highway. It has remained shut today for the third day in a row. To make the things worse, Jhelum river has started swelling due to heavy rains. On Monday morning, it had crossed the danger level in Srinagar and Sangam areas of south Kashmir, as per reports. Schools have been closed for two days and board and university exams have been postponed. 

The effect of western disturbance is, however, receding. At the time of writing this post, Srinagar and Jammu were reporting a partly cloudy weather. As per the GFS weather model, the weather in the state will continue to remain a little cloudy on Monday and Tuesday. Light rains or drizzle can be expected in the state. This brief pause in rainfall will help in the receding of water from places like Srinagar.  Even the water level of Jhelum will decrease a little due to the absence of rains.

But come Wednesday and rains will once again commence in the currently affected areas. Rainfall will continue in periods till April 6. According to current estimates, western Jammu and Kashmir will witness heavy rains on Wednesday and Friday. Rains will decrease from April 4. 

This will likely bring back water logging and cause an upsurge in the water level of the Jhelum. As the river is already seeing an upsurge, even a little rainfall is likely to make the river exceed the danger level again. The authorities claim that, after last year’s flood, they strengthened the embankments and no breaches have been reported so far.

There will also be heavy snowfall in the higher reaches, causing landslides and avalanches in prone areas. This will keep the Jammu-Srinagar highway closed during the period from April 1 to 6. Srinagar airport may also see disruptions during this period due to water logging.

People living in these areas must stay alert. Following are the precautions people must follow: 

• Keep with you water (at least a 5-day supply), food (at least a 5-day supply of non-perishable, easy-to-prepare food), flashlight, battery-powered radio, extra batteries, first aid kit, medications (7-day supply), cell phone with chargers, family and emergency contact information, extra cash, emergency blanket, tools/supplies for securing your home, extra clothing, hat and sturdy shoes and rain gear.
• Listen to area radio and television stations for authentic details. 
• Be prepared to evacuate at a moment’s notice. Stay away from landslide- and avalanche-prone zones. 
• When a flood or flash flood warning is issued for your area, head for higher ground and stay there.
• Stay away from floodwaters and the river Jhelum. If you come upon a flowing stream where water is above your ankles, stop, turn around and go another way. Six inches of swiftly moving water can sweep you off of your feet.
• If you come upon a flooded road while driving, turn around and go another way. If you are caught on a flooded road and waters are rising rapidly around you, get out of the car quickly and move to higher ground. Most cars can be swept away by less than two feet of moving water.
• Keep children out of the water. They are curious and often lack judgment about running water or contaminated water.
• Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognise flood danger.

Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster

Disturbance from West ceases, mercury set to rise

BLOG EDITION- http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/disturbance-west-ceases-mercury-set-rise

Relief in sight for states in the grip of swine flu

State-wise rainfall in India between March 1 and March 11, 2015 (courtesy IMD)

Latest data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms what most Indians already know from experience. The data shows rainfall received between March 1 and 13 in most areas (coloured blue in the India map) has been in excess of 20 per cent or more. In this period, India normally receives about 9.8mm rain but this time it has received 33.2 mm rain.

The figures in the map may not appear alarming but it’s important to note that these are the weighted average values (weighted mean). In this method of averaging, proper numerical weights (numbers) are assigned to every observation and then their weighted mean is calculated. Rainfall measurement is done in a similar manner as explained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US. As per this technique, India reported a strong 239 per cent departure (from normal) in rainfall in this period. The weather eventwhich lasted between February 28 and March 3 has been the major contributor in this rainfall amount.

Swine flu’s link to weather events 
These back to back rainfall events not only damaged the crops but also kept a lid on the maximum temperatures at many places. Such a condition is usually favourable for the swine flu virus which has been causing a havoc in India. Maximum impact of swine flu is being reported from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat. State-wise per cent rainfall departures (March 1 to March 11) in these states are astonishing. The per cent rainfall departures (from normal) in Gujarat is 42,811;  2,757 for Rajasthan; 932 for Madhya Pradesh; 1,240 for Delhi; 720 for Telangana; 1,554 for Maharashtra and 750 for Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall amounts will be even more when the data from past week weather outbreak is considered.

District rainfall departure map for north-west India for the period March1-March 11 (courtesy IMD)

After these havoc-causing events in the initial two weeks, weather in India has started to stabilise. Going by the projection of weather models like Global Forecast System (GFS), it looks like some significant heating is possible over the next couple of days. This is likely to kick off the summer season in India. The meteorological seasons in India, as defined by IMD, are pretty strange. According to its definition, India has a winter season which lasts between January and February but it doesn’t have a summer season. Most of India (except for parts of southern India) witnesses winter conditions mostly from November. IMD defines the October- December period as a post monsoon period. It calls the period of March to May (when India sweats due to significant heating) as the pre-monsoon season.

As per GFS, no western disturbance is expected in India for (at least) one week. Plus, the upper air is also expected to remain stable as no trough is expected over India in the next few days. Hence, the weather is likely going to stay clear at most of the places which would be an important factor in increasing the heat and hence the temperatures--maximum and minimum. Even the swine flu-affected states are going to witness significant heating which would likely result in a drop in the number of swine flu cases.

Expected mean surface temperature in India over the next few days (courtesy: IGES/COLA)The above image gives an idea of the expected heating. Top map shows the expected mean surface temperature (in degree Celsius) between March 18 and 26, 2015. The scale is given to the left side. Bottom image shows the expected temperature anomaly (in degree Celsius). The long range forecast (March 26 to April 3) given in the middle image may not be that reliable right now but it is possible that the heating will continue in April first week also. Reddish regions in much of India indicate higher than normal temperatures. Below is what can be expected till March 26, 2015.

Initially, places in Rajasthan would be getting a maximum temperature around 35°C and it may rise even further in the next week. Maximum temperature in Jaipur is expected to remain near 32-33°C in this period. Gujarat is also going to get higher maximum temperatures in the coming days. Significant heating is possible due to which maximum temperatures will likely stay in the 35-40°C range. Maximum temperatures at places like Vidarbha in Maharashtra are likely to near 40°C. Other places like Marathwada will also witness maximum temperatures around 35°C in the coming period. Mumbai should be staying at around 35°C. Delhi, too, will start experiencing heating as maximum temperatures will touch 30°C initially and then will rise above 30°C in the coming period. Places in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh will also be warm. Many places in Telangana are already reporting a maximum temperature of around 35°C. The weather is likely to be similar in the coming period.

Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster

Severe western disturbance to hit North India

BLOG EDITION: (http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/severe-western-disturbance-hit-north-india)

Heavy rains and snowfall predicted in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh

Western disturbances or the areas of "disturbed air pressure" travelling to India from the west are a regular feature through the winter season. These are basically "extra-tropical storms" or low pressure systems originating outside the tropical regions. The rain and snow they bring in their wake to north India and neighbouring regions is formed from the moisture they carry from the Atlantic Ocean or the Mediterranean Sea.

This winter season's most powerful western disturbance is all set to hit north India from this Wednesday (January 21). The countdown for its arrival has already started.

Expected impacts

Monday afternoon's infrared satellite image from India Meteorological Department shows the approach of the western disturbance.

Every western disturbance is different from the previous one due to the differences in intensity. Following is what can be expected from this system.

Tuesday, January 20: Clouds due to this western disturbance will start arriving (mostly from evening) in Jammu and Kashmir and western Punjab. No severe weather threat expected on this day.

Wednesday, January 21: Western disturbance will start impacting north India. Increasing cloud cover will be seen in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and in the plains of north India. Rains or snow will start in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh; it will turn heavy from evening onwards.

Up to four feet (1.22 metre) of snow (snow depth) is expected to accumulate in eastern Kashmir valley (Pahalgam included) on this day. About 14 inch (36 cm) of snowfall is expected in northern Himachal Pradesh; remote areas likely to get cut off.

Rainfall is also expected in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, southern Gujarat and eastern Rajasthan. Overnight rains possible in Delhi-NCR with reduction in fog from Wednesday due to increasing cloud cover.

Thursday, January 22: A wet and cool day for almost entire north India. Rains expected to cover more parts of north India plains. Heavy snowfall will continue in the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on this day. Srinagar is likely to receive the first snowfall of the season in the early morning hours of Thursday. Freezing rain shall continue in the later hours of Thursday. Moderate snowfall for Ladakh forecast on this day.

Due to snow accumulations, Jammu-Srinagar highway may get closed on this day along with minor disruptions in the flight schedules at Srinagar and Leh. Disruptions expected in the rail traffic in Jammu and Kashmir.

Reduction in the rain/snow from late night hours, but it will give way to extreme cold weather in these areas.

Friday, January 23: Light snowfall can be expected in higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Dense fog expected to return to the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi-NCR and Uttar Pradesh.

The weather will clear up after this.

Some tips on how people in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh can make themselves weather ready:

• Store sufficient heating fuel. Store a good supply of dry, seasoned wood for your fireplace or wood-burning stove.
• Keep adequate dry clothing and blankets, stock of medicines and food.
• Bring pets/companion animals inside during winter weather. Move other animals or livestock to sheltered areas with non-frozen drinking water.
• * Minimise travel and stay indoors in this period.
• * Follow the warnings issued by local government agencies.

Refer this link http://www.ready.gov/winter-weather for more tips regarding how to prepare from this western disturbance.

Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster

Proposal on improving the weather forecasting system of India

METD WEATHER submitted a proposal to the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, MoES on Friday,21st Nov 2014 with the support of Centre for Science and Environment (CSE),New Delhi. This proposal identifies several issues in the existing forecasting system of India and includes suggestions to them to make India a "Weather Ready" nation in the near-future.

The proposal has been titled as "Re-engineering weather forecasting in India: an agenda for an increasingly climate insecure world" 

The proposal was submitted to Dr Shailesh Nayak-Secretary of MoES & Chairman of Earth Commission and Dr M Rajeevan, Scientist "G"/Advisor of MoES and forwarded to Shri Narendra Modi, Hon'ble Prime Minister of India.

*** On Tuesday, 25th Nov 2014, the proposal was forwarded by Dr M Rajeevan to Dr L.S Rathore, Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for further consideration ***

Dr M Rajeevan's letter to Ms Sunita Narain informing that the proposal has been forwarded to IMD

Ms Sunita Narain, Director General CSE signed the covering letters to Dr Rajeevan and Dr Nayak.

Earlier on Sunday, 23rd Nov 2014- Dr M Rajeevan sent an e-mail to Akshay Deoras 

Thank you, Akshay. I have received the letter from Dr Sunita Narain including your proposal. We shall do the needful for reviewing it. Thanks.

Rajeevan

1) The proposal can be read here- https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B07h4h1YtF4uZE9YUDhiZ2tsaEk/view

*** OR Click HERE  to read*** 

*** CLICK HERE TO SEE A PRESENTATION ON IT*** 

2) The covering letter to Dr Shailesh Nayak can be seen here- https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B07h4h1YtF4uY2lhdGJMc25ZekE/view?usp=sharing

To Dr Rajeevan can be seen here- https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B07h4h1YtF4ueFhTNzJlTm5Ianc/view?usp=sharing

Letter sent to Hon'ble Prime Minister of India- Shri Narendra Modi on 24th Nov 2014

Earlier on 9th September 2014, METD WEATHER's Akshay Deoras had met Dr Shailesh Nayak and Dr Rajeevan at MoES, New Delhi. Several issues related to the forecasting system were discussed in these meetings.

Akshay Deoras (left) after meeting Dr Shailesh Nayak (right) at MoES, New Delhi on 9th September 2014.

Akshay Deoras (left) after meeting Dr M Rajeevan (right) at MoES,New Delhi on 9th September 2014.

"We believe that the people of India can give even better ideas on improving the weather forecasting system of India. Hence I request the readers to share their thoughts/ideas/suggestions on how to make India a "Weather Ready" nation in the near future through e-mail. Readers can send the email to akshaydeoras@hotmail.com  " Due credit will be given to the readers who suggest good and pragmatic ideas. These ideas will be sent to MoES in the coming days"

~Akshay Deoras

Special thanks to Mr D.P Thombre for his help in this proposal. 

2014 MONSOON ONSET FORECAST BY METD WEATHER (INDIMO)

UPDATE AT 2000HRS,26TH MAY 2014

METD WEATHER expects 90% rainfall in India (About 10% less than normal)...

North-East India getting EXCESS rainfall, East India getting NORMAL rainfall and Gujarat,Maharashtra and some parts of Madhya Pradesh getting 85-90% NORMAL (10-15% LESS THAN NORMAL)

MUCH OF NORTH INDIA WILL BE GETTING ON AND AVERAGE 90% RAINFALL...

The crucial SW Monsoon seems to be in a hurry this time as its practically racing towards India with the monsoon limit now in the Central Bay of Bengal as can be seen from this IMD Monsoon Onset map- The monsoon reached Andaman & Nicobar Islands two days before the scheduled date. 

 Based on METD WEATHER's norms, its very clear that the monsoon will be hitting Kerala on time and should be covering the state by 2nd-3rd June as per the forecast


KEEP FOLLOWING METD WEATHER'S FACEBOOK PAGE BY CLICKING HERE......

"Cyclone Lehar" ingests dry air, weakens as per the expectation

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

***UPDATED***

0928am IST,28th Nov 2013- Former Cyclone Lehar weakens to a Tropical Depression and shall be striking AP as a weak Tropical Depression........ 

It turned out to be a a very major day for Cyclone Lehar as it behaved completely against the forecasts...however obeyed METD WEATHER's forecast. The dry air which it pulled from Eastern India finally started showing its effect from yesterday night as it put a lid on the intensity of the cyclone. Cyclone Lehar's central core became very unstable since last night which continued till today afternoon where the CDO (Central Dense Overcast) feature vanished which allowed the LLCC (Low Level Circulation Centre) to appear in some of the IR satellite images obtained today morning. As of now, we are waiting for JTWC update on the max winds of Cyclone Lehar which shall be a Tropical Storm Lehar now given the fact that its maximum sustained winds should be on the borderline of Tropical Storm and Category 1 as per the Saffir Simpson Scale where from 64kt onwards (119km/hr), systems are rated as Category 1 and below that till 35kt (63km/hr), the system is a Tropical Storm...

Lets have a look at how dry air killed/chocked the system: Category 1 Cyclone LEHAR

Above image is the CIMSS TPW (Total Precipitable Water) image of yesterday which clearly shows how much the dry air had increased around the western quadrant of Cyclone Lehar. Due to some reasons, this dry air wasn't entering the circulation centre which actually is the thermal engine driving the entire system.

Above is the IR NHC image of yesterday morning which showed how stable the centre was in comparison with the below image of today afternoon when the system started showing first signs of weakening on rapid scale. Below image clearly shows a rapid warming of the central core- a typical indicator of increasing cloud top temperature (Present peak cloud top temperature is about -40/-50C as against -70/-80C which was today morning/yesterday)... Dry air ingestion does such thing causing temperature inversion which ultimately inhibtis the growth of CB clouds and weakens the system.

Below is the latest IR NHC CIMSS image of supposed Tropical Storm Lehar as CIMSS is showing. Now comparing the above and below image, one can infer how rapidly the system is disintegrating..

Dry air ingestion/wrapping around the system can be seen from this latest TPW image. Notice how the dry air is wrapping around most of the system and its thermal content has decreased (has become less shaded brown)... In the coming period, dry air will wrap more, ingest more and practically it will completely disintegrate the system

So what will happen now? 

As a Tropical Storm, Lehar will hit Andhra Pradesh coast around Machilipatnam tomorrow,28th Nov 2013 morning period- stretching to afternoon also. Given the disintegration rate, it seems Lehar will hit the coast at a max sustained winds of 45-50kt around 90km/hr... gusting to around 100km/hr or so.. The landfall zone shall stretch between Machilipatnam and Kalipatnam (AP) 

Heavy rains will be witnessed in these areas and probably the storm surge will be around 3-4feet. 

HERE IS WHAT PEOPLE MUST DO (Via BOM,Australia) 

When a cyclone warning is issued (For Andhra Pradesh coastal areas) 

Depending on official advice provided by your local authorities as the event evolves; the following actions may be warranted.

• If requested by local authorities, collect children from school or childcare centre and go home.
• Park vehicles under solid shelter (hand brake on and in gear).
• Put wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in your pool or inside with other loose items.
• Close shutters or board-up or heavily tape all windows. Draw curtains and lock doors.
• Pack an evacuation kit of warm clothes, essential medications, baby formula, nappies,
  valuables, important papers, photos and mementos in waterproof bags to be taken with
  your emergency kit. Large/heavy valuables could be protected in a strong cupboard.
• Remain indoors (with your pets). Stay tuned to your local radio/TV for further information.

On warning of local evacuation (Near landfall area, around Machilipatnam)

Based on predicted wind speeds and storm surge heights, evacuation may be necessary.
Official advice will be given on local radio/TV regarding safe routes and when to move.

• Wear strong shoes (not thongs) and tough clothing for protection.
• Lock doors; turn off power, gas, and water; take your evacuation and emergency kits.
• If evacuating inland (out of town), take pets and leave early to avoid heavy traffic, flooding and wind hazards.
• If evacuating to a public shelter or higher location, follow police and State/Territory Emergency Services directions.
• If going to a public shelter, take bedding needs and books or games for children.
• Leave pets protected and with food and water.

When the cyclone strikes 

• Disconnect all electrical appliances. Listen to your battery radio for updates.
• Stay inside and shelter {well clear of windows) in the strongest part of the building,
  i.e. cellar, internal hallway or bathroom. Keep evacuation and emergency kits with you.
• If the building starts to break up, protect yourself with mattresses, rugs or blankets under a
  strong table or bench or hold onto a solid fixture, e.g. a water pipe.
• Beware the calm 'eye'. If the wind drops, don't assume the cyclone is over; violent winds
  will soon resume from another direction. Wait for the official 'all clear'.
• If driving, stop (handbrake on and in gear) - but well away from the sea and clear of trees,
  power lines and streams. Stay in the vehicle.

After the cyclone

• Don't go outside until officially advised it is safe.
• Check for gas leaks. Don't use electric appliances if wet.
• Listen to local radio for official warnings and advice.
• If you have to evacuate, or did so earlier, don't return until advised. Use a recommended route and don't rush.
• Beware of damaged power lines, bridges, buildings, trees, and don't enter floodwaters.
• Heed all warnings and don't go sightseeing. Check/help neighbours instead.
• Don't make unnecessary telephone calls.

Note: Managers of resorts, hotels, motels, and caravan parks should take steps to ensure visitors are aware of the dangers and know what to do in the event of a cyclone. Free Protecting Caravans information is available from your State/Territory Emergency Service.

CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE LEHAR WRAPPING IN DRY AIR?

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster,

Today afternoon, Tropical Storm LEHAR intensified to a Category 1 Cyclone as its max sustained winds reached 65 Kt and as of this post continue to be at 65Kt as the cyclone tracked west-northwest at around 07Kt (13km/hr) in the Bay of Bengal about 965km SE of Vizag,1100km east-south east of Machilipatnam,1050km east - south east of Kakinada,Andhra Pradesh and having tracked 200km from Port Blair after bringing heavy rains and winds in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. However I am personally not convinced with the latest image of the system and some more observations, lets have a look here

Dry Air-

Like mentioned in yesterday's blog post, the amount of dry air entering the Bay of Bengal from East/North East India is increasing every hour as Cyclone LEHAR continues to act like a magnet doing this job. A 24hr comparison of the CIMSS Total Precipitable Water (TPW)clearly shows an increase in the spread of dry air which even now seems to be wrapping around the system in its northern periphery.

The topmost image shows TPW as of yesterday and the below image shows the latest precipitable water. One can see that blue,green region has moved further down (southward) as the Cyclone LEHAR presently at 12.5N,91.0E continues to move NW. Possibly the dry air is interacting with the outer rainbands- Northern and North-Western rainbands of LEHAR as can be possibly inferred from this latest IR-NHC imagery via CIMSS

The 1330UTC obtained NHC enhancement image shows a more or less oval structure of the CDO (Central Dense Overcast) feature which continues to obscure the LLCC. An animation of the IR imagery shows the centre is losing the convergence. It also indicated a possible exposed LLCC (although for a short time) and that the convection is possibly re-organising around a new centre marked by a very favoured wind field as can be seen in this image

The above IR BD image has contours of lower air convergence imposed on it. An increasingly favourable 30Kt region is developing coupled by an excellent poleward flow of 40Kt peak.
SST continues to be very favourable, in the 29C range which is overpowering the moderate 20kt wind shear in the region.

An analysis of all indicates that dry air has likely collided with the outer northern rainbands of Cyclone LEHAR and the convection is re-organising around a new centre and the system is overall maintaining its intensity. Over the next 12hrs, Cyclone LEHAR shall intensify gradually although I don't expect a Rapid Intensification yet considering the fact that wind shear are forecasted to remain moderate all the time in LEHAR's journey. Dry air wrapping shall be a factor to watch out and hence still I don't expect it to intensify beyond Category 2 which shall happen later tomorrow,26th Nov.

Given the fact that dry air interaction will act as a barrier and the SST will be decreasing beyond  36hrs from now ( morning of 27th Nov 2013), LEHAR shall make a landfall as a Category 2 cyclone close to Kakinada,Andhra Pradesh on the morning of Thursday,28th Nov 2013. The state of sea in the Bay of Bengal shall remain ROUGH in this period and hence fishermen shouldn't venture out in the sea till Friday,29th Nov 2013.


More details are awaited like potential damage to Andhra Pradesh coast which will enable to put the graphic map so STAY TUNED!!!