Severe Weather continues across Eastern India,Bangladesh while Central India HEATS UP

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER


PENCH NATIONAL PARK,MADHYA PRADESH
8TH APRIL 2012

As was mentioned in the past Friday's update, the ongoing Severe Thunderstorms in the Eastern India and  Bangladesh stretching upto North East India had some severe RADAR signatures today. The Radar products from Agartala clearly depicted violent thunderstorms in the region of India-Bangladesh border prominently with cloud tops over 14kms in height and cloud top temperature ( CTT) over -60C!!
Check the below RADAR image of Agartala as of 1401GMT


The above Max Z product clearly shows violent thunderstorms just West,South-East of Dhaka and many isolated thunderstorms over the Tibetian region in the North of Agartala...


The above CTT imagery shows extreme CB clouds as of 1630UT over North-East India.... The situation has been worst for Bangladesh where already around 17 people have been killed due to severe weather since it began a few days ago

Below is a news report  I found-

DHAKA, Bangladesh (AP) -- News reports say storms with heavy rains and strong winds have killed at least 17 people and injured dozens more in Bangladesh.

Dhaka's Prothom Alo and Janakantha newspapers say Friday's storms damaged mud-and-straw huts and felled trees in 10 of the country's 64 districts.

The reports say most of the deaths occurred from lightning. Some victims were buried under their collapsed houses.

Official confirmation of the reports was not immediately available.

-----

Forecast-

Extreme Thunderstorms will be continuing in a region starting from West Bengal stretching into Bangladesh and North-East India atleast for a week! Favorable conditions including the high instability is the key for such severe weather events!

People in these areas shall remain alert especially precautions must be taken from Lightning,Heavy Rains,Winds and Hailstorm/Tornadoes ( if happen) 

*** SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHALL BE SEVERE AND DAMAGE PRODUCING****

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Central India HEATS UP!!!

*** Wardha,Chandrapur ( Maharashtra) record maximum temperature of 43.1C ( IMD) ON 8TH APRIL 2012 ***

*** NAGPUR RECORDS TEMPERATURE OF 41.1C ( IMD) OR 43C ( PWS) TODAY***

The Summer is in a full swing in Central India as the winds from the west are getting a good scope to bring the dry air as the system of low pressures across India coupled with the anticyclone ( High Pressure) in Arabian Sea continues to pump moisture and boosted winds! The quantum of moisture has reduced for some days but shall increase again after the mid of this week thus bringing more clouds and convective activity in Central India. 

Above- Extraordinary heating over Central India causing the low pressures as shown in the image contine to pull moisture and subsequent heat adding to maximum temperatures

Another western disturbance will affect North India within 24hrs from now

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES---

Severe Thunderstorm grips West Bengal,Bangladesh

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING WEST BENGAL,BANGLADESH***

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As was mentioned on the METD WEATHER FB page, Severe Thunderstorms have fired across West Bengal territory covering Bangladesh also. The thunderstorms intensification began on 5th April with immediate results of rains interrupting the IPL Cricket play at Kolkata yesterday and numerous reports of Thunderstorms with Heavy Rains from Kolkata and other parts of the West Bengal.

Media reports are confirming Water logging in Kolkata. Below is the image obtained from ( Courtesy CNN Network) showing Water Logging in Kolkata.




METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST-

Visit METD WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE for all the updates as time limitations are restricting to put much on the blog!




The 00UTC Thai Map shows the presence of two low pressures ( One across Eastern Madhya Pradesh) and another over West Bengal at the lower levels of atmosphere. Such a combination is often embedded in the upper air Jet-Stream which features like a "Trough" ( Trough of a Transverse Wave) which are often responsible for bringing the energy for convection in the upper air atmosphere. The trough feature can be seen in the below 200mb map as the region across West Bengal,Northern Bay of Bengal where a U shaped wind patter has appeared which is the region of trough.
A Trough feature often enhances the upper level forcing which is required for thunderstorms to grow



At the surface, an area of High pressure offshore Odisha and Low pressure over Bengal is forcing the low level winds to bring more moisture thus elevating the dewpoints over West Bengal,Bangladesh region





Such all ingredients coupled with strong upward lifting and high instability behaves like cyclogenisis and deepens the low pressure in the region.

Forecast-

HEAVY RAINS,STRONG WINDS OVER 60KM/HR AND LIGHTNING ACCOMPANIED BY WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE IN WEST BENGAL,BANGLADESH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS ATLEAST


*** PEOPLE MUST WATCH OUT FROM STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY THE ROOFS OF THEIR HOUSES IN SUCH CASES****


*** ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE HAILS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ( ACCURACY NOT GUARANTEED DUE TO LESS FORECAST MODELS) IN THE REGION PARTICULARLY BANGLADESH AREA

ENSO ( El Nino Southern Oscillation) update

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

After the recent continuous updates on The Superstorm or Dust Storm in Asia, its time to update the people with something new. The aspect of ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation is an old phenomena but less known to the people. In this article, I shall not go much into depth on technical aspects of what ENSO means and other aspects like El Nino or La Nina. There are some articles already which can be accessed by the readers by searching on this page.

The above is a Unisys prepared image comprising of Sea Surface Temperature across oceans of the world. Majority of the people will face problems in reading this so I shall describe it.

You can identify the physical map's continents and countries. Also the oceanic region can be identified easily. Here you see combination of colors in the ocean ( light blue,dark blue,light green,dark green,yellow,purple). What are these???

Its simple, just see the image left portion. There is a scale. The scale represents Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies in degree celsius. Anomaly refers to the abnormal ( greater or less) than the normal SST present at this time.

The bluer shade beginning from dark blue indicates cooler than normal SST in decreasing process. The light blue,green colors indicate nearly normal or slightly normal anomalies ( 0.5C to 2C). Higher colors like Yellow or Red indicate above normal (around +5C) sea surface temperature.

What to look in such maps-
The main region to look for is the Pacific Ocean prominently the areas in Central Pacific Ocean around the equator. The below region shows the division of Equatorial Central Pacific in regions known as Nino with their corresponding numbers. These regions ultimately determine whether a La Nina or El Nino is going on..

And its simple now!

One can clearly see lots of blues in the eq central pacific ocean which indicates the ongoing La Nina. The recent update from Climate Prediction Center shows ( Latest Week)


Region    Temp anomaly

Niño 4       -0.4ºC 
Niño 3.4    -0.5ºC
Niño 3       -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2    0.5ºC


We just see the past datas or the SST during last week when 2012 Summer Forecast for India was released..

NINO 4:        -0.8C
NINO3.4:      -0.6C
NINO 3:        -0.2C
NINO 1+2:     0.4C


Having compared the week variation, one clearly implies that temperatures are rising in Pacific ( EXCEPT Nino 4 region) 





26th Feb and 25th March 2012 SST comparison-






On comparing the SST for Equatorial Pacific, its being observed that the overall volume of cooler SST has increased since Feb 2012! The volume of warmer SST around South America also has decreased!

The above image shall clarify! There has been cooling in the region of RED OVAL as compared to Feb 2012 SST.
Note- The above image is of Mar 2012

Areas in pink show less warm SST.

Forecast-
Looking at the overall 1-month analysis, it appears that ENSO is turning to Neutral Stage but in a slow manner. The overall transition is expected into late April ( CPC) but METD WEATHER suggests things to delay. It may appear that the ENSO neutral shall appear by May mid or end depending on the decay rate!

The Wind anomalies at lower and upper level of atmosphere still indicate the persisting La Nina!

STAY TUNED for UPDATES

DUST IMPACTING INDIA BADLY,SCENARIO NOT TO CHANGE FOR 24HRS

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

*** MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CONDITIONS IN INDIA***
*** DUST STILL SETTLED OVER GUJARAT,RAJASTHAN,CENTRAL INDIA,NORTH INDIA
*** MIDDLE EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING***
*** CONDITIONS NEARLY NORMAL IN SINDH AND OTHER PARTS OF PAKISTAN***


The Superstorm which originated on 17th March and sent plumes of dust towards Indian Sub continent is still maintaining its strength but has weakened a bit thus improving overall visibility over India.
Morning datas indicate that the visibility is still less in much of India. Most of the areas still have "Widespread Dust" present. 

The above surface weather analysis shows the presence of three low pressures over India. The added dust over Saudi Arabia is still arriving in the form of dust plumes. The below color enhanced imagery clearly indicates a stronger plume over the lower Arabian Sea...

The above Color Enhanced imagery indicates a persisting dust plume at central arabian sea. The dust plume is entering India from the Western India mainly across Maharashtra-Goa border. At the same time, a persisting low pressure over South-Western Saudi Arabia is pulling the sand from Oman,South-Eastern Saudi Arabia which is generating the visible dust plume. So the area comprising of Western India,Central India and some parts of North India shall have a continued widespread dust in the atmosphere. 


The upper air jet stream is expected to amplify and arrive over Oman region by 25th March. This upper level jet shall boost or enhance the upper air wind speed and can help in a bit clearing of the dust. More on that shall be notified later


Forecasts-


Nearly normal conditions with highly reduced suspended dust particles will return from 24th March across the middle east. At the same time parts of Saudi Arabia and Oman will get some widespread dust but improving visibility conditions from today onwards. Across Sindh, conditions shall return to normal from 24th onwards with improved visibility and very less suspended particles

Across India, slight improvement in the conditions are expected but the scenario won't change much till 24th March. The forecasted dust shall continue to maintain the levels and hence we expect the scenario to be similar.


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

DUST ENTERS NAGPUR,MAINTAINS INTENSITY IN INDIA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

***WIDESPREAD DUST ARRIVES IN NAGPUR*****
***VISIBILITY DIPS TO 1.5KM FROM 6KM IN JUST FEW HOURS***
***INTENSITY MAINTAINED IN MOST OF THE PART OF INDIA***


*** CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER IN THE MIDDLE EAST***


***** RAW ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DUST HAS SPREAD IN THE ENTIRE INDIA INCLUDING SOUTHERN INDIA******


MAJOR SCENARIO UNFURLING NOW*******

Above- Mr.Sampath Iyengar from Mumbai sends the above photos taken on 21st March 2012 from Lokhandwala area Mumbai. 

Above- I took some photos of the Dust covered streets of Nagpur,India today at around 1030PM IST. The visibility is continuously at 1.5km since early morning with " Haze" conditions..




THE HISTORIC SUPERSTORM SENT DUST WHICH HAS GRIPPED WESTERN,NORTHERN,CENTRAL INDIA ENTERED IN NAGPUR TODAY MORNING. 
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AND THE VISIBILITY PARAMETERS PRESENT AT THE AIRPORT WHICH SHOWED A SHARP DIP AS FOLLOWS-  

ABOVE-  THE WUNDERGROUND DATA OF NAGPUR AIRPORT SHOWS A DIP IN THE VISIBILITY FROM 0310AM TODAY WITH HAZE CONDITIONS. THE PRESENT VISIBILITY IS AROUND 1.5KM HERE

HOWEVER, THE CONDITIONS HERE ARE NOT AS SEVERE AS THEY WERE IN MUMABI OR OTHER AREAS TILL NOW BUT WITH THE INCREASING PERIOD, I DO EXPECT THE VISIBILITY TO DIP FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD

PEOPLE DRIVING VEHICLES MUST WATCH OUT FOR LOW VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL INDIA***********

DUST SPREADS IN INDIA!

AS SEEN FROM THE ABOVE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE ENTIRE INDIA ALMOST IS COVERED UNDER THE DUST. THE MORE IMPACTS ARE IN CENTRAL INDIA AND RAJASTHAN. 

NOTE- ANALYSIS OF THE ACTIVITIES FROM MIDDLE EAST SHALL COME SOON AS ITS DARK THERE AROUND MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY TO APPEAR

DUST STORM MAINTAINS STRENGTH IN INDIA, NEW PLUMES VISIBLE IN NORTH AFRICA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

*** WIDESPREAD DUST CONTINUES IN INDIA*****


*** REPORTS FROM MULTIPLE AREAS STILL INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD DUST***


*** NEW DUST PLUMES VISIBLE OVER NORTH-AFRICA***

THE SAND BLOWING TOWARDS INDIA AS ON 20TH MARCH 2012
COURTESY-NASA MODIS

THE HISTORICAL DUST STORM/SUPERSTORM HAS IMPACTED THE CITIES OF INDIA ON A VERY LARGE SCALE. THE WIDESPREAD DUST HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN MANY AREAS LIKE GUJARAT,RAJASTHAN,PUNJAB,BHOPAL,OTHER PARTS OF MADHYA PRADESH,MUMBAI ALSO.

Above- Mr.Kanishka Raj Rathore from Bhopal,Madhya Pradesh sends the photo to METD WEATHER. The photo is of Bhopal City in Central India and taken at 1240PM IST. 




Realtime Conditions and Forecasts- 


Right now, conditions are further improving across the Gulf countries. Today's reports show lesser reports of Blowing Sand or Widespread Dust across the areas such as UAE,Saudi Arabia,Oman and vicinity. Visibility is further improving as was estimated for the regions. However minor suspended dust particles are still going to be present in the atmosphere atleast on 22nd March also where majority of clearing is expected


Conditions are highly improving across Sindh and other parts of Pakistan. Some areas today got very good visibility and lesser suspended dust particles! 


In India, Widespread Dust also is being reported. Reports from Gujarat like Rajkot,Ahmedabad still indicate presence of Widespread Dust or Blowing Sand with very low moisture and RH over 5% at minimum. The visibility has improved a bit in Rajkot since afternoon but people are informing that still dust is occupying on their cars etc.. 


Reports from Central India particularly Bhopal are impressive for Widespread Dust and VERY LOW VISIBILITY 1km in the area
The moisture has significantly dropped today due to the persisting dust. 


In Amritsar, BLOWING SAND continued today also in the afternoon period.. 


In Mumbai,Our fellow friend Rajeshbhai Kapadia of Vagaries of Weather (rajesh26.blogspot.com) mentioned visibility dropping to 900m at 0230PM


Forecasts-


To begin with, There appears another Dust Plume over North-Eastern Africa i.e Egypt and vicinity. 

The above imagery of Visible Spectrum clearly shows New Dust Plume over North-Eastern Africa. The area is around Egypt.After cross checking with the weather stations of Egypt, its clear that there has been some Dust Activity around Asyut,Egypt this afternoon. Blowing Sand was reported in fact at that location. There has been NO REPORT of any Dust activity in that area


My estimates do suggests that the suspected region is DUST. The Infrared Spectrum shows no reflection from the region which normally clouds do. This area is being watched by METD WEATHER and Vagaries of Weather closely. 
Any updates shall follow soon!

On comparison of the two images, its a clear thing that other clouds are being seen as it is in the Infrared spectrum except that region-

The above Surface Weather analysis from Kuwait Weather Dept. shows the moving Low Pressure "L" over Southern Saudi Arabia with the cold front trailing behind.

If this holds true, we can expect the dust plume to slowly enter or move towards Iraq,Saudi Arabia areas on 22nd March 2012. The persisting Low pressure and Jet streams shall help in doing so

If this comes true, Weather shall again turn Dusy in Iraq,Saudi Arabia,UAE,Qatar etc.. and likely in Oman on 22nd March 2012 which will entirely depend whether my estimates are true or not. However an eye must be kept on the event happening no matter if it doesn't happen

Sindh-
Conditions shall improve further in next 12-24hrs with lesser suspended air particles in the region.

India-
Conditions are now expected to improve slowly in Gujarat,Rajasthan,Central India,Northern India. Though Nagpur didn't receive any dust which was being expected but still the northerly or westerly winds can advance some dust tomorrow so the possibility can't be RULED OUT

Mumbai- Things will turn to normal from tomorrow as the dust shall not cause any effect tomorrow!

DUST COVERED MUMBAI!!!!!!!!!!!


KELLI CLOGSTON THEXTON from Mumbai sends this wonderful photo taken from the expressway in Mumbai at 0430PM today. 

Kelli's location was here on the Western Expressway


http://maps.google.co.in/?ll=19.042992%2C72.831974&spn=0.011663%2C0.01929&hnear=Mumbai%2C+Maharashtra&t=h&z=16


i.e on the express way. Kelli writes- 


This is taken from the Western Expressway. You should normally see the Worli Sealink and high rises across the bay!. 



 It was taken at 4:30 p.m. on March 21. The "ridge" you see just above the sea wall is about 1 football field away. It is probably .25 miles across the bay and it is shocking that you can't even see the high rises or the sea link!



Most of the people will not notice anything in the photo due to the extra-ordinary Dust present. So I processed the photo in iPhoto and after adjusting the exposure,contrast one can now see what Kelli meant-

One can clearly see the rocks to the left and right side of the image. Those areas perhaps are of Mahim and the Mahim Fort in vicinity!

Courtesy- IBN LIVE




STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!!

DUST STORM DEEPENS IN INDIA,SPREADS IN CENTRAL INDIA ALSO

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER



CHECK THE LATEST ON THE BLOG!!


MAJOR SITUATION UNFURLING! 
*** DUST REACHES CENTRAL INDIA,GRIPS MUMBAI ALSO*****

SHAN FASTIAN SENDS THIS WONDERFUL PHOTO FROM ISLAMABAD,PAKISTAN . THE PHOTO WAS TAKEN AT 04PM LT,20TH MARCH 2012. 

WIDESPREAD DUST REPORTED IN BHOPAL,MADHYA PRADESH**************


THE SUPER DUST STORM OF THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH GRIPPED SINDH,GUJARAT,RAJASTHAN AND SOME PARTS OF NORTH INDIA STRETCHING AS FAR AS SRINAGAR HAS REACHED CENTRAL INDIA TODAY AS THE DRAMATIC DUST PLUME CHANGED ITS PATH. 


WIDESPREAD DUST HAS BEEN REPORTED SINCE EARLY MORNING TODAY IN MADHYA PRADESH WHICH IS BEING CONFIRMED BY THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE COLOUR COMPOSITE SPECTRUM ALSO







AS SEEN FROM THE ABOVE COLOR COMPOSITE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE MAJOR DUST PLUME WHICH CAN BE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ORIGINATING FROM LOWER SAUDI ARABIA HAS GRIPPED CENTRAL INDIA,WESTERN INDIA AND NORTHERN INDIA ALSO..


REPORTS AND FORECASTS-

As was expected, the conditions are IMPROVING FURTHER FOR MIDDLE EAST I.E GULF COUNTRIES,OMAN. THE PAST 7-8 HOURS OF DATA SHOWS IMPROVING VISIBILITY AND LESS REPORTS OF WIDESPREAD DUST~ HOWEVER AS WAS EXPECTED, THERE ARE STILL SOME SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES IN THE AIR FAR LESS THAN WHAT WAS ON 19TH AND 20TH MARCH

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO IMPROVING IN RIYADH AND OTHER SAUDI ARABIA REGION.

SINDH-
THE INTENSITY OF DUST HAS REDUCED IN SINDH REGION AND OTHER PARTS OF PAKISTAN. HOWEVER THE DATAS ARRIVING STILL INDICATE A MODERATE TO MINOR DUST PRESENT WITH REPORTS OF BLOWING SAND ALSO

INDIA-


THE DUST HAS GRIPPED SEVERELY IN GUJARAT,RAJASTHAN AREAS. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE LARGE PLUME OVER THESE AREAS


THE DUST PLUME HAS ALSO MIGRATED TOWARDS MADHYA PRADESH REACHING BHOPAL


AS OF 0430GMT, THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF DUST PLUME IS FEW KILOMETERS SOUTH-WEST OF BHOPAL CITY AND IS PROGRESSING SOUTH. 


FORECAST- 

Right now, 
A cold front is being driven across Saudi Arabia which is confirmed from the cloud pattern. The Cold Front is expected to advance further south-east. A Widespread dust is still present over Saudi Arabia. If this cold front happens to advance further, it will kick off the dust in the Arabian Sea which may result into the upsurge in the amount of dust over Arabian Sea. 


In India, a system of two low pressures is pulling the wind and subsequently the dust plume. One low pressure is offshore Goa-Karnataka border while the other one is somewhere over the North-East part of Central India which has caused the perpendicular shape of the plume and advancement of the plume in Central India


***MIDDLE EAST,OMAN 
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FURTHER WITH SOME SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES TODAY. 


*** IN MUMBAI WHERE THE DUST IS STILL BEING REPORTED CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE ADJACENT PLUME MAKES ITS ENTRY. 
SOME OBSCURING VIEWS ARE VERY LIKELY WITH MINOR DIP IN THE VISIBILITY THIS NOON 


*** THE SYSTEM OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THE DUST FURTHER SOUTHWARDS AND THE DUST WILL BE ENTERING MAHARASHTRA THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIOD. 


VOLUME WILL BE LESS BUT AREAS LIKE NAGPUR AND VICINITY SHALL GET TO SEE A TRAILOR OF THE EVENT WITH OBSCURED VIEWS OF THE AIR,ATMOSPHERE


*** FOR SINDH, CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TODAY. HOWEVER SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES WILL BE THERE IN ATMOSPHERE ATLEAST TODAY


INDIA- 


*** THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FOR CENTRAL INDIA PARTICULARLY IF THE LOW PRESSURES MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH. IT MAY RESULT IN PULLING OF THE DUST FROM WESTERN PARTS TO CENTRAL PARTS


THE CONDITIONS IN GUJARAT AND RAJASTHAN ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. HOWEVER SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES WILL BE THERE CAUSING ANOTHER DAY COVERED WITH DUST


*** NAGPUR-


THE CITY MAY ENCOUNTER THE DUST TODAY EVENING. 


********** IF THE DUST OVER CENTRAL INDIA WEAKENS THEN NAGPUR WILL NOT RECEIVE THE DUST AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE**************


SHORTLY UPDATING ON IT




STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES-