North-Northwesterly Winds in India to cool Central India!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The multi directional flow of the low to mid level winds in India shall be regulated as a Monodirectional or Uni-directional flow in the coming period due to the development of a broad cyclonic low pressure in the Southern Bay of Bengal.

GFS models indicate that the low pressure shall intensity to a marked low pressure or a broad low pressure having intense convection and minor banding features which shall trigger heavy rains in Sri Lanka by coming Sunday(13th March)

As the winds always blow from High Pressure TOWARDS low pressure area, North to North Westerly shall set up due to permanent high in North India and this low.

The winds shall become more symmetrically oriented as the low aims Sri-Lanka

What effect expected in India?

In the last week, for Central India,Western India the winds were from the West which led to severe rise in temperatures at Max and Min at many places with Nagpur at 37C.

Now as the wind direction change, winds will be from North. AT evening and night period when the air cools off due to absence of heating from sun, such winds are capable of reducing the temperatures and giving a breezy pleasant outlook.

Similar feature is expected to happen WHICH CAUSED MIN AT PUNE AND NASHIK 11C AND JALGAON AT 12C

(Temp courtesy-Rajesh Kapadia)

Min temp in Cent India shall be in 20-25C range with Max temp to be steady or 1C rise.

This temp drop(Min) shall continue till Mon (14th Feb) and shall minimize when low disappears.

Space Shuttle Discovery is "GO" for landing

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

NASA AND METD WEATHER has given a GO for landing of Space Shuttle Discovery

The De-orbit BURN has been given a GREEN SIGNAL as the Winds are within the limits for landing

Windy at Kennedy Space Center,FL

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

STS 133 ground weather forecast

0955AM EST Weather report from Kennedy Space Center,FL

Temp - 25C

Humidity is 65%

Wind - 28km/hr from SSE

Gust- 46km/hr (over 24kt)

Visibility- 16.1km

The Winds are reaching the permissible limit which stands for Max of 25kt as Tailwind and Headwind

Decision from METD WEATHER for Go/NO for launch remains ON HOLD.

Tornadoes to AIM Southern States of USA. SPC UPGRADES TO MODERATE RISK

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

There is a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across Louisiana,SW Mississippi.

Massive upper trough having discrete jet streaks amplifying into Texas-Oklahoma shall bring some severe weather down south.

Severe weather shall erupt into a wide area stretching from Eastern,SE Oklahoma into Central and East Central Texas in afternoon period. Intense convection is likely into SE and Central TX due to presence of CAPE reaching upto 2000J/Kg in the area of 60F dewpoint East of the Dryline.

Threat for Afternoon tornado is less but threat increases later period with the progression of dryline westward and presence of Low Level Jets. ( Evening to night hours)

The primary threat looks for Western Louisiana border around Marshall,TX

Evening storms shall be capable for producing isolated thunderstorms with hails which shall modify amidst 1000J/KG CAPE and Light to Moderate SHEARS for tornadoes.

Main threat lies across Louisiana and SW Mississippi into overnight.

Moderate Risk upgrade

Developing storms will progress into LA,Mississippi into evening to night hours with the progress of warm front, supercell formations shall enhance and produce some tornadoes. There is a CAP though in this region.

Heavy Rains also expected due to HP supercells.

Widespread wind damage also possible

My tornado target lies close to Marshall,TX for late afternoon period.

Nocturnal long time tornadoes possible in LA,Mississippi

Permissible weather at Kennedy Space Center for Landing of Space Shuttle Discovery

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post, weather at kennedy space center was expected to be around 80-85% permissible with primary concern of cloud ceiling height

Guidance from latest model runs of GFS and NAM agree that the Lifted Condensation Level ( LCL) which determines the height of base of clouds shall remain within the limit

Cloud Cover shall be around 40% during/before launch with light clouds expected.

Since the rule permits light cloud cover less than 50%, the parameter is been given a GREEN SIGNAL

Winds shall be light in intensity and permissible in all ranges and forms.

No Precipitation/lightning is expected on deorbit 202 at 1157 hrsEST,1657 hrsUTC,2227hrs IST

METD WEATHER GIVES a Green Signal or "GO" for Landing of Space Shuttle Discovery on Wednesday,9th March 2011 at Shuttle Landing Facility,KSC

STS 133 landing forecast for Kennedy Space Center,FL

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

STS 133 Ground Weather Forecast-

Forecast for Wednesday,9th March 2011- TARGETED LANDING DAY FOR SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

Space Shuttle Discovery is expected to land at the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility on 9th March, Wed at 1158EST (16:58 UTC) 2228hrs IST on the orbit 202.

Below are the conditions acceptable for landing of a shuttle as prescribed by the Space Flight Meteorology group

Space Shuttle Landing Weather Criteria
Simplified Daylight End-of-Mission (EOM) Landing at the Kennedy Space Center

---

Weather Parameter and Their Limits

Cloud ceiling height	>= 8,000 ft
Visibility	>= 5 statute miles
Crosswind	<= 15 knots
Headwind	<= 25 knots
Tailwind	<= 15 knots (peak) <= 10 knots (2 minute average)
Precipitation and thunderstorms	Not allowed within 30 nautical miles of the landing runway.
Turbulence	<= Moderate

Additional Requirements

1.  No detached non-transparent thunderstorm anvil clouds (less than 3 hours old) 

within 20 nautical miles of the       landing runway.  2.  Peak winds may not exceed the

 average wind speed by more than 10 knots.  

Forecast by METD WEATHER of 9th Mar 2011 for Kennedy Space Center,FL

On Wednesday, 9th March 2011 weather is expected to be CALM around the Kennedy Space Center,FL with a high pressure area in SW of Florida

Technical aspects-

Cloud Ceiling Height-

Cloud Ceiling height has been a primary concern for the landing day Wednesday.

The previous few model RUNS of GFS and NAM were showing low height of Lifted Condensation Level ( LCL) indicating that cloud bases ( ceiling) to be less than 8,000ft which is the prescribed limit by Space Flight Meteorology Group

However, recent model analysis have shown that cloud ceiling shall be unlimited to high level with 30% cloud cover on Wednesday. Cloud Cover of 50% is not permissible with nature of clouds to be Convective.

Thus cloud cover on Wednesday shall be less with very high cloud ceiling

This parameter is "ON HOLD" AS PER METD WEATHER SINCE MORE CONVINCING PRODUCTS ARE REQUIRED TO ACCEPT THE FACT.

2] Winds-

Permissible tail wind has to be less than 15kt.

Tail wind during landing time is expected to be around 7kt

This parameter is "GO" as the cross wind is also light with head wind.

3] Precipitation and Thunderstorms not allowed within 30nm of runway

No Thunderstorm/Precipitation is expected on 9th March morning period around KSC so this parameter is "GO"

4] Weak turbulence.Parameter is "GO"

Thus the weather forecast stands for "GO" with primary concern of Cloud Ceiling thus making 80% Acceptable conditions.

Weather forecast is GO for Edward AFB and White sands for Wed

Weather Forecast is NO GO for KSC on Thu ( 10th March 2011) due to possible thunderstorms and lightning.

Next report-

0500hrs GMT,8th March 2011

Heavy Snowfall expected in North India 2-5th March 2011

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A Western Disturbance shall be effective over North India from tomorrow giving Heavy Rain and Snow in North India,Himachal Pradesh till 6th Mar 2011.

Likely Avalanche warning and closure of transport
--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

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