Avalanche Warning issued in Kashmir as days of heavy snowfall arrive. Rainfall likely in plains

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Authorities in Kashmir have issued a Medium Danger level warning for Avalanche in some areas in Kashmir due to the very heavy snowfall forecast over the next few days.

"A medium-danger avalanche warning has been sounded by Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) for Gurez, Gugladara, Keran, Machil, Chowkibal and Tangdar in north Kashmir areas close to the Line of Control," said Amar Ali, Coordinator-Disaster Management Cell.

Instructions also have been given that no vehicle other than a 4 wheel drive with chain shall go to Gulmarg from Tangmarg.

FORECASTS-

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND REACHES TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF NORTH INDIA, SEVERE WEATHER WITH WINTER SETUP IS LIKELY IN NORTH INDIA FROM TODAY ( 6TH FEB 2011) AND PARTICULARLY TOMORROW (7TH FEB 2011)

HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY TILL TOMORROW NIGHT IN NORTH INDIA COVERING

SRINAGAR CITY( FOR SOME PERIOD ONLY) , GULMARG,SONAMARG,PEHALGAM,HIGHER REACHES,KARGIL,DRASS,LADAKH

ALL AREAS IN HIMACHAL PRADESH, UTTARANCHAL

NORTHERN PLAINS ( PUNJAB,CHANDIGARH,HARYANA,JAMMU)

WILL RECEIVE LIGHT TO MEDIUM RAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM AND

LIKELY HAILSTORM DUE TO CAPE VALUES REACHING UPTO 2000J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX UPTO -4.0

(Right- PW forecast)

SO FOLL ARE THE WARNINGS-

1] AVALANCHE WARNING FROM NOW TILL 1800HRS (7TH FEB 2011) FROM AUTHORITIES IN SRINAGAR

2] MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS ( METD WEATHER) IN EFFECT FROM NOW TILL 1200HRS (8TH FEB 2011) IN J&K

3] HIMACHAL PRADESH-

MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS TILL 0800HRS (9TH FEB 2011) --- METD WEATHER

SEVERE SNOWFALL LIKELY to hammer North India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- MARK 5 ALERT, PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION(PDS) FOR NORTH INDIA. ( 5TH FEB ONWARDS)

Multiple heavy snowfall events is likely in North India from tomorrow(Feb 03 2011) onwards.

The Western Disturbance which can be seen in the satellite imagery as a gigantic cloud patch at NW of J&K shall precipitate snow in Jammu and Kashmir entire state with rains at lower reaches and

Northern Himachal Pradesh

Below is the estimated snowfall amounts with effects due to it.

I notice two extratropical storms ( WD) embeded in the 300mb jetstream flow

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For Western Disturbance I.

Expected 500 mb height - 564dm

Snowfall from Thu (3rd Feb 2011 ) t0 Sat ( 5th Feb 2011)

Place- 1} Skardu,Gilgit( POK)

RATE AND ACCUMULATION - MODERATE TO HEAVY

2} KASHMIR VALLEY( SRINAGAR CITY,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ZOJI LA,)

RATE AND ACCUMULATION - MODERATE SNOWFALL

EFFECTS- ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE AREAS BY ALL TRANSPORT MEANS.

3] KARGIL VALLEY AND LADAKH ( AREAS BETWEEN KARGIL AND LEH AND AROUND LEH)

RATE - MODERATE IN KARGIL VALLEY

LIGHT IN LADAKH

EFFECTS- ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE AREAS BY ALL TRANSPORT MEANS.

4] HIMACHAL PRADESH -( NORTHERN HP ONLY)

RATE- LIGHT

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the time this Western Disturbance brings snowfall in North India,

As this shortwave trough in the above case precipitates, the western portion of the jet streams shall intensify to jets around 120kt and embeded low pressure ( Second W.d) shall reach North India during 5th Feb

On/After 5th Feb 2011, the eastern extent of this trough shall potentially modify and mature to a shortwave trough which will again bring rains and snowfall in North India

Below is the estimation of it

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For Western Disturbance 2. ( Trailing end of the first shortwave trough)

expected 500mb height - 558dm

Snowfall from 5th Feb (SAT) -----

Snowfall from the previous Western Disturbance shall reduce on 5th but by late hours shall intensify as the next western disturbance stars affecting.

1] Skardu,Gilgit etc....

Rate- VERY HEAVY ( MODERATE TILL AFTERNOON 6TH FEB. VERY HEAVY FROM LATER THAT DAY )

...

2} KASHMIR VALLEY( SRINAGAR, CITY,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ZOJI LA) &

KARGIL VALLEY AND LADAKH

RATE AND ACCUMULATION -

ON SAT(5TH) - LIGHT TO MODERATE

** FROM 6TH FEB TO 8TH FEB 2011 - VERY VERY HEAVY.. HIGH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD PARTICULARLY ON 7TH FEB 2011

EFFECTS- TOTAL DISRUPTION OF LIFE,TRANSPORT ETC..

ALERTS-

METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS FOR THIS AREA STARTING FROM 1500HRS ON SATURDAY (5TH FEB 2011) TILL 1200 HRS ON TUESDAY ( 8TH FEB 2011)

3] HIMACHAL PRADESH ( ALL STATE HIGHER REACHES)

RATE- LIGHT ON 5TH FEB

MODERATE ON 6TH FEB

HEAVY ON LATE PERIOD OF 6TH FEB, ON 7TH FEB

LIGHT ON 8TH FEB 2011

EFFECTS- TOTAL DISRUPTION OF LIFE,TRANSPORT ETC...

ALERTS- MARK 5 ALERT FROM 0800HRS 6TH FEB TILL 0800HRS 9TH FEB 2011

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2011020306_ASA_GFS_300_HGT_WINDS

Animation showing the 300mb winds

Cat.5 cyclone Yasi makes landfall at Mission Beach,Queensland

LATEST IR IMAGE OF CYCLONE YASI

1432UTC

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Cyclone Yasi which was a Cat.4 cyclone intensified to a Cat.5 level has made a landfall near the Mission Beach just sometime before writing this post.

(Right and Bottom images of 1332UTC,around an hour before landfall)

Cyclone Yasi's large core remains centered between Cardwell and Innisfail as seen in the satellite imagery.

The Bureau of Meteorology,Australia has made the following update

YASI CROSSED THE COAST NEAR MISSION BEACH DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH THE LARGE DESTRUCTIVE CORE AROUND THE EYE EXTENDING BETWEEN INNISFAIL AND CARDWELL.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will weaken only slowly as it continues to move in a west-southwesterly direction towards the Georgetown area during the morning.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WAVES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES tides exceeding the high water mark will continue between Cairns and Proserpine until at least the morning high tide.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h between Cairns and Ingham and the adjacent ranges will extend inland and gradually weaken.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of the cyclone will take up to 4 hours to pass.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and Ayr will spread inland overnight.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas between Cape Flattery and Proserpine, and are forecast to extend through to Mt Isa during Thursday.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday morning.

FLOODING RAINS between Port Douglas and Proserpine will gradually extend inland.

People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Proserpine and extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Details:

	Time (EST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am February 3	5	18.0S	146.0E	20
+6hr	7 am February 3	3	18.6S	144.3E	55
+12hr	1 pm February 3	2	19.3S	142.7E	85
+18hr	7 pm February 3	1	19.9S	141.2E	110
+24hr	1 am February 4	1	20.5S	139.9E	140
+36hr	1 pm February 4	tropical low	21.6S	137.5E	205
+48hr	1 am February 5	tropical low	22.5S	135.8E	260

Major Typhoon Yasi talking aim on Queensland territory.

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Major Typhoon in the Pacific Yasi is heading towards the Queensland Territory and is heading for a landfall between Calms and Cardwell by 1AM on Feb 3 2011

Yasi is in the region of light vertical shear and hence is expected NOT TO WEAKEN before the landfall.

Since I don't have that much time to make a detailed analysis,

I am hereby posting message from the Bureau of Meteorology,Australia- ( BOM)

YASI IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The Cyclone will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction during today, and may intensify slightly.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands
later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above 200 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend onto the coastal ranges including the Atherton Tablelands this evening.

As the centre approaches and crosses the coast SEA LEVELS between Cairns and Townsville will rise significantly above the normal tide with DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low lying areas in coastal parts.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and then extend inland overnight.

People between Cape Melville to Sarina, extending inland to east of Croydon to Hughenden should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Lockhart River to Cape Melville, and in the tropical interior north of Winton to Sarina should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Details:

	Time (EST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am February 2	4	15.3S	152.5E	30
+6hr	7 am February 2	4	15.9S	150.8E	85
+12hr	1 pm February 2	4	16.4S	149.0E	95
+18hr	7 pm February 2	4	16.9S	147.2E	120
+24hr	1 am February 3	4	17.5S	145.5E	150
+36hr	1 pm February 3	1	18.8S	142.3E	205
+48hr	1 am February 4	tropical low	20.0S	139.6E	240

Massive Weather Chaos in USA!!

EXTREME CHAOS HAPPENING IN USA DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER

ITS INDEED THE WINTER STORM OF THE CENTURY!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

"PEOPLE IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREAS AND AREAS WHERE RISK OF ICE ACCUMULATION,FREEZING FOG SHALL AVOID TRAVEL ATLEAST TILL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS)"""

"" ALL MEANS OF TRAVEL ARE GOING TO BE AFFECTED IN THE SNOW/ICE HIT REGIONS

Massive Weather Chaos is happening right now in US with two types of weather happening

As mentioned in the previous post,

A Classic Winter Storm has matured into the rockies and now is bursting into the plains and already started precipitating at many areas with a blast of cold air driving south

Blizzard conditions have started coming as a result of which the National Weather Service has issued Blizzard Warning in NE Oklahoma,East and SE of Kansas,Central NE Eastern Missouri,

Eastern IOWA,SE Iowa,Central-Western-Northern Illinois,Southern & South-Eastern,Western Wisconsin,Northern Indiana,NorthWest Ohio at the present time.!!

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO CEL. IN ALL THE AREAS WITH GAGE,OKLAHOMA HAVING CURRENT TEMP OF -17C (0853CST) 1ST FEB 2011 WITH WINDCHILL OF -29C!!!

-17.8C IN ENID,OK

(temp map in DEGREES F)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS PARTICULARLY MENTIONED

...MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION TODAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

WHILE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW,BLOWING SNOW AND ICE PELLETS AT SOME PLACES CONTINUE,

TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE SOUTH

SQUALL LINE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY MATURING DUE TO THE CAPE AROUND 500-1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AROUND LOUISIANA,NEW ORLEANS and AREA RICH OF LOW LEVEL JETS AND HELICITY FOR ROTATIONS, TORNADO WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

DAMAGING HAILS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AND TORNADO WATCH # 9 HAS BEEN ISSUED

THAT SOON SHALL CONVERT TO TORNADO WARNING GIVEN THE EXCELLENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINETIC CONDITIONS REQUIRED

THE RADAR SEGMENT SHOWING MASSIVE REFLECTIVITY FROM SW OF LOUISIANA WHERE A TORNADO THREAT EXISTS NOW. CONDITIONS SHALL BE SIMILAR TO SOUTH COASTAL LOUISIANA SHORTLY AROUND NEW ORLEANS WHERE MY TORNADO TARGET REMAINS N- WEST OF NEW ORLEANS

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tornado Watch 9 remains in effect until 300 PM CST for the
following locations


La
. Louisiana parishes included are

Acadia Allen Ascension
Assumption Avoyelles Beauregard
Bienville Calcasieu Caldwell
Cameron Catahoula Concordia
East Baton Rouge East Feliciana Evangeline
Franklin Grant Iberia
Iberville Jackson Jefferson
Jefferson Davis Lafayette Lafourche
La Salle Livingston Madison
Natchitoches Orleans Ouachita
Plaquemines Pointe Coupee Rapides
Richland St. Bernard St. Charles
St. Helena St. James St. John The Baptist
St. Landry St. Martin St. Mary
St. Tammany Tangipahoa Tensas
Terrebonne Vermilion Vernon
Washington West Baton Rouge West Feliciana
Winn

  MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE    

    ADAMS                AMITE           

    CLAIBORNE               COPIAH        

       FRANKLIN            HINDS          

         JEFFERSON            JEFFERSON DAVIS  

   LAWRENCE                LINCOLN           

   MADISON             MARION            

      PIKE                 RANKIN        

      SIMPSON                 WALTHALL    

         WARREN              WILKINSON     

CRIPPLING WINTER STORM LIKELY IN CENTRAL USA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IN CENTRAL USA

A powerful trough moving from West will intensify into the rockies and hammer the Central states of USA

The GFS maps are showing that the trough will intensify to a classic 120kt jet South-Westerly flow from today evening onwards and producing first snowfall North-East of New Mexico around North of Santa Fe,NM from tonight ( around 9PM) informs of Snow Showers!

Snow Accumulation shall add to upto 6inch!!!!

WINTER WARNING IN SANTA FE TILL 11AM MST WEDNESDAY..

Then snowfall shall begin around Tuesday early morning around Lubbock,TX and shall accumulate to 5inch here.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDCHILL WATCH SHALL CONTINUE TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDCHILL SHALL DROP TEMP TO -5C LOW!

WICHITA FALLS IN TEXAS WILL RECEIVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING AROUND 6INCH! FROM TUESDAY MORNING HOURS

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY TO 6PM TUESDAY CST

As the arctic cold air drives South and the powerful coastal storm system matures into rockies, due to moisture of Gulf of Mexico being driven into NE of Oklahoma due to developing LLJ of 40kt from coastal SE Texas, A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL START THE IMPACT!

AREAS FROM WICHITA FALLS,TX TO MIAMI,OK ( DIAGONAL FIGURE ON MAP)

SHALL GET VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW DUE TO 30 MILES WINDS!

BLIZZARDIC CONDITION IS POSSIBLE HERE

SNOW WILL START FROM MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6PM CST TODAY EVENING TO 6PM CST TUESDAY.

AREAS AFFECTED- OKLAHOMA

LAWTON,NORMAN,OKLAHOMA CITY,TULSA,

EFFECT- TRAVELLING WILL BECOME IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY.

ACCUMULATION- SNOW ACCUMULATION SHALL EXCEED 15INCH ACROSS NE OF OKLAHOMA AND SHALL REACH MORE THAN 24INCH AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON

LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS LIKELY HERE INCLUDING JOPLIN,MISSOURI,SPRINGFIELD,MISSOURI AS THE LLJ PICKS UP TO MORE THAN 50KT NE OF OKLAHOMA AS A POWERFUL LOW DEVELOPS IN NW ARKANSAS!

2} MISSOURI,ILLINOIS,INDIANA,OHIO..... - ICE ACCUMULATION mostly

As the surface low pressure strengthens to 1000mb SE of Missouri, massive and rapid intensification of Low level jets ice light snow showers first shall begin and then accumulation Shall begin in Central Missouri,Illinois,Indiana by evening of Tuesday into early wednesday as the air above surface is at light freezing temperature.

PEAK IMPACTS ON TUESDAY

Areas affected- Fort Smith,St.Louis,Indianapolis.... New York

THUS THE ENTIRE WINTER EVENT SHALL CAUSE LOT OF PROBLEMS TO PEOPLE IN OKLAHOMA,MISSOURI AND OTHER STATES....

II. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH!

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY IN COASTAL EASTERN TEXAS,ALABAMA,LOUISIANA,

areas- HOUSTON,JACKSON(MS),MOBILE,NEW ORLEANS ETC

Multiple Weather Events likely in India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Multiple Weather events in India over the next few days which includes

1) Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 ( some period on 30th Jan 2011)

2) Chance of formation of a Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal( Already present but intensification by 30th)

3) Possible another snowfall event by 3-4th Feb 2011 in North India

1} Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 and some periods on 30th Jan 2011

A loosely bound western disturbance( Extra-Tropical Cyclone) is situated West-North West of Pakistan as depicted the by decrease in the 500mb height indicating presence of storm at mid levels. GFS 12z runs are in agreement for further intensification of the low pressure and to become a classic shortwave trough over Pakistan-India border sometime tomorrow morning to afternoon.

This Shortwave trough is likely to precipitate snow/rain in N India.

Snowfall is expected in Kashmir valley,Kargil area,Ladakh from now onwards( applicable for Central j&K) whereas for Kashmir valley,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal snowfall shall begin tomorrow afternoon to evening hours and shall be very heavy in Kashmir Valley,Northern Himachal Pradesh and some higher reaches in Uttaranchal.

Lower regions will get rainfall. However light rainfall may happen in Northern Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh but chance with a mild thunderstorm ( Probability of hails also ) at the post evening to night hours and continue on Sunday morning also.

2} Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal

The recent water vapor satellite is indicating a weakly organised convection area to the south of subtropical ridge having cloud tops over -50C. The computer models are indicating that the system shall become more symmetrical ( intensify) in an area of minimum vertical shear( 10kt around) and expected 24hrs nature of decreasing.

Already in the pool of warm SST with favorable upper divergence to permit convection,

if a low level convergence builds up in next 24hrs, then system shall have a well defined structure and possibility of a Depression in next 24hrs.

It depends on Low level convergence, thats why JTWC has not made any update on it

3} Possibility of another snowfall in North India by 3-4th Feb 2011

Well, right now there seems to be a possibility of another western disturbance landing on North India by 3-4th FEb

More details on it later as situation unfurls