METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Concerning- Possible ONSET of Winter 2010 in Central India esp Nagpur
Most of this month ( NOV) had minimum temperature above 20C except the very first day when minimum temperature was 16C in Nagpur.
The reason for such a warm winter was the moisture that was deposited by a Bay low which had swept across central India few days back. Usually, low pressure area sweeps away towards the west carrying away moisture after 3-4 days. This low swept away very quickly but a HP( High Pressure region) has been in the state of formation and development since last 2 weeks resulting in less displacement of moisture!
As much of the air in Central India was containing moisture and the low winds were not directed NORTH-SOUTH( Winds are from North to South after North-East Monsoon season gets over permitting winter), cloudy days were there in the city.
Cooling has already begun in the North India with almost daily snowfall activity at Srinagar-Leh highway leading to closure of NH 1D from Nov 26,Friday till 6 months!!! Minimum temperatures at North India non hilly region is around 13-10C...
As moisture containing air was present in Central India with non directed winds, cool air was unable to penetrate in Central India which was the cause of WARM NOVEMBER
CURRENT FORECAST-
The forecast models are finally indicating the withdrawal of the deposited moisture over Central India from Wednesday-Thursday onwards. The 850mb winds also will be having a Northerly,Northwesterly flow and shall permit temperatures to drop in Central India including Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh western,Central and Northern Maharashtra,Nagpur also
For Western coasts and Pune city, moisture is still holding good and cooling shall begin by 10dec or so. Occasional cool days are very likely in Pune when temperature can drop to 15C when previous night min was around 19C due to strong cool mountain influenced winds.
Nagpur Temperature forecast
I must admit that people in Nagpur NOW must wash their winter clothes and keep in open to dry them!
EXPECTED MIN TEMPERATURE IN NAGPUR
Tuesday- 18C
1/12- 17C
2/12- 17C
3/12- 16C
4/12- 16C
5/12- 15C
** FORECAST SUBJECTED TO MOISTURE WITHDRAWAL
BELOW IS THE UPDATED 2010 WINTER FORECAST FOR INDIA PREPARED BY METD WEATHER
FIRST IMAGE-
MAP PREPARED BY METD WEATHER DEPICTING EXPECTED AIR TEMP ANOMALY IN INDIA SHOWING VERY COOL CONDITIONS IN MAHARASHTRA ESP AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR
METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
METD Weather's 2010
Winter Outlook of India is out!
METD WEATHER forecasts for a cooler than normal winter in most of the areas in India.
Reasons-
1] Due to La Nina ( Phenomena when the Sea surface temp in Central Pacific cool down) the jet streams are expected to intensify more across the world
2] Blocking High Pressure over Tibet
3] More southward flow of Jet streams than normal.
1] LA NINA
The Second phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is La Nina. La Niña refers
to a period when the Sea Surface Temp in Equatorial pacific cool down by 3-5C as the east ward moving oceanic waves from South America bring more colder water towards equatorial pacific.
La Nina is followed by El Nino which concluded in Mid 2010. La Nina is now in a near full swing.
La Nina has opposite consequence as that of El Nino
La Nina also strengthens the Jet streams.
2] Blocking high pressure over Tibet
As cooler temperature builds in Tibet, a high pressure area builds over Northern India and also in Tibet, Right now the air pressure is as high as 1040mb. The Jet streams flowing from west to east are blocked by this air pressure so the jet stream splits into two branches or mostly jet stream digs South instead of North
As the high pressure blocks the jet stream, jet stream digs southwards in India covering areas of Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra and much of the North-Central India.
The Jet rarely flows over Jammu and Kashmir ( except for Western Disturbance).
So more cool air digs southwards than normal during La Nina.
The intensity of the high pressure over Tibet and North India is related to the La Nina phenomena.
(IMAGE AT LEFT- TEMP IMPACTS FROM LA NINA SHOWING COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF INDIA EXCEPT J&K.COLD EPISODES MEANS THIS PERIOD)
3] As mentioned above,
This year more cool air is going to flow over Central and North Central India. This meansCENTRAL INDIA,NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA(EXCEPT JAMMU AND KASHMIR) AND SOUTHERN INDIA WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER
REGIONAL FORECAST
1] JAMMU AND KASHMIR-
THE STATE IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A WARMER WINTER THIS YEAR. NOTE WARMER MEANS COMPARITIVELY WARMER AND DOESN'T MEAN TEMPERATURES 10C ABOVE NORMAL! IT WILL BE AROUND (0.5+C) THAN AVERAGE
WHENEVER THERE WILL BE WESTERN DISTURBANCE, THEY WILL BE SEVERE AND I EXPECT 2-3 SEVERE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN 2010-11 EARLY PERIOD IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH
2] PUNJAB,CHANDIGARH,HARAYANA,DELHI
THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS (0.3-0.5 C) LESS THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
THIS FIGURE IS SMALL ITS A SIGNIFICANT FROM METEOROLOGY ASPECT.
THIS MEANS EVERYDAY THE TEMPERATURE MIGHT BE AROUND 1C LESS THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY.
3] MADHYA PRADESH,MAHARASHTRA,UTTAR PRADESH,BIHAR,JHARKHAND
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WITNESS VERY COOLER WINTER. TEMP WILL BE LESS THAN (1C) THAN AVERAGE****
THIS MEANS RECORDED TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY WILL BE LESS THAN
1C THAN RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY
** THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING MOST OF THE TIME IN WINTER. SOME PERIODS MIGHT WITNESS DIFFERENT VARIATIONS ACCORDING TO WEATHER CONDITIONS.
4] SOUTHERN INDIA
SOUTHERN INDIA WILL WITNESS A COOLER AND WETTER WINTER PERIOD BELONGING TO COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA
RIGHT-
THE PREDICTED MAP BY NOAA SHOWING WET CONDITIONS IN COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA ( NOV-FEB)
gh pressure area (1030mb) got formed over Baltic states. This happens during the winters and had happened last year.. Multiple low pressure systems were created in Southern and South Eastern Europe. As Winds blow from high pressure area to low pressure area,westerly winds have turned to North-westerly winds and have brought cool arctic air over mainland of Europe. As seen from this attached Surface plot and the jet streams, jets have been blocked due to high pressure. They are now moving through the southern areas carrying moisture from Atlantic and Cool arctic air from the north.
