Existing low in Arabian will be replaced by a new low. This one has chance of becoming a Cyclone

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

MARK II ALERT IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA FROM 6TH DEC 2010

Increased in the vertical shear around the region of the Arabian low pressure has caused a lot of disorganization in the structure of the low pressure. As a result, JTWC has predicted a poor chance of Tropical Cyclone formation in next 24hrs.This Low pressure will DIE FOR SURE WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS.

The latest guidance from GFS is indicating that the ANOTHER low will FORM more westwards ( due to more push from winds from west especially upper level) in the periphery of monsoon trough south of subtropical ridge.

Conditions as depicted by GFS look good again for cyclogenesis from 6-7th Dec 2010 as low moves in a pool of SST of 30C which is very good for intense convection and growth of storm.

If it happens, this low will sweep parallel to western coast of India pulling winds from near High pressure,making the 850mb wind flow in Central and Southern India from South,South West and forsure depositing lot of moisture as well.

As per GFS cyclone models, this low pressure has a good chance to become a Tropical cyclone AFTER 8TH DEC 2010. The path of this cyclone looks very identical to Cyclone Phyan which was a cyclone in Arabian close to India during November 2009. Phyan had dumped lot of rainfall in Maharashtra west.

Right now, it looks that this system will make a

FIRST AND THE STRONGEST LANDFALL OR NEAR LANDFALL IN LAKSHADWEEP ON 9TH DEC 2010.Second landfall during evening of 10th dec 2010 somewhere near North of GOA state. Most likely it will not hit Gujarat and Mumbai also!

I am also attaching a Alert map for this system which will BE UPDATED REGULARLY AS NEW DATAS ARRIVE FROM GFS PREDICTION SYSTEM