Joint Typhoon Warning Centre upgrades the system to a Tropical Cyclone.

HEAVY RAINS,GALE WARNING FOR PAKISTAN SOUTHERN COAST IS CANCELLED

ROUGH STATE OF SEA CONTINUES IN THE AREA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre had earlier issued Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ( Check out last post)

The centre again picked up the system today by mentioning it as Tropical Cyclone 1 or Cyclone Keila

However as per JTWC the winds are around 35kt at centre 65KM/HR.

LOCATIONS -

19.9N,71.7E BASED ON DATA REPORTED AT 1200HRS GMT

FORECAST-

*** THE CENTRE OF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM

*** SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND LACK OF SYMMETRICAL SHAPE

*** UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR INDIAN COASTS

*** THE CLOUDING REMAINS DETACHED TO WEST OF LOW

*** THE LOW PRESSURE SHALL TRAVEL NORTH-NORTH WEST STRIKING SOUTHERN COAST OF GUJARAT IN NEXT 24HRS

*** MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHALL TRAVEL THROUGH ADJOINING COASTS OF WEST GUJARAT TOMORROW EVENING TO NIGHT HOURS

*** GALE WINDS,HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COAST OF GUJARAT

*** HEAVY RAINS WITH STRONG WINDS SHALL HIT SOUTHERN,SOUTH-WESTERN AND WESTERN GUJARAT

*** ALL THIS TO HAPPEN ON SUNDAY,12TH JUNE 2011 NIGHT

AFTER 6PM *** FOR SOUTHERN GUJARAT

*** WEST CENTRAL GUJARAT DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 13TH JUNE 2011**

*** LOW SHALL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR PRESENT IN NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND SO I DON'T FORSEE IT TURNING TO INTENSE CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING INDIA

*** OMAN IS SAFE AS OF NOW FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WATCH CONTINUES

*** PAKISTAN SOUTHERN COASTS ALSO ARE BEING MONITORED***

********** PEOPLE ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN BEACHES ALONG SOUTHERN GUJARAT,WESTERN GUJARAT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TILL MONDAY AFTERNOON******

****** FISHERMAN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN THE SEAS

******* REFER METD WEATHER WARNING MAP

CHECK METD WEATHER ALERT MAP ALREADY POSTED AND FOLLOW @

www.facebook.com/deorasakshay

Tropical Storm Keila forms in the Arabian Sea

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

"" TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT""

FOR INSTANT UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS-

JOIN US ON FACEBOOK HERE

The much Anticipated and Puzzling Cyclone " Keila" has finally formed with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center ( JTWC) officially confirming its formation.

In an update provided by the JTWC, as of 2230hrs( 8th June) JTWC has mentioned Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

at 18.7N,69.8E 180NM West of Mumbai

METD WEATHER HAD ISSUED A HIGH RISK YESTERDAY ONLY FOR FORMATION OF CYCLONE IN NEXT 24HRS!

FORECAST-

THE AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED AT 18.7N,69.8E AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FEW ALERTS HAS ORGANIZED. VISIBLE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROBUST CONVECTION HAPPENING WITHIN THE SYSTEM SITUATED IN A POOL OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER 30C

THE IR-BD IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

RAINBANDS ALSO HAVE ORGANIZED IN LAST 12HRS GIVING A MORE SYMMETRIC SHAPE TO THE TROPICAL STORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER 40KT!

WITH SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENCE AS THE UPPER DIVERGENT WINDS ARE OVER 40KT, THE SYSTEM HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIALS FOR INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24HRS.THE WIND SHEARS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE WEAK FOR NEXT 24HRS!

WITH A PRESSURE OF AROUND 998MB, KEILA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM WITH PEAK WINDS OF 61KM/HR ( APX)

WHERE WILL IT GO?

CHECK THE ALERT MAP FOR DETAILS