FIRST IMAGE-
MAP PREPARED BY METD WEATHER DEPICTING EXPECTED AIR TEMP ANOMALY IN INDIA SHOWING VERY COOL CONDITIONS IN MAHARASHTRA ESP AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR
METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
METD Weather's 2010
Winter Outlook of India is out!
METD WEATHER forecasts for a cooler than normal winter in most of the areas in India.
Reasons-
1] Due to La Nina ( Phenomena when the Sea surface temp in Central Pacific cool down) the jet streams are expected to intensify more across the world
2] Blocking High Pressure over Tibet
3] More southward flow of Jet streams than normal.
1] LA NINA
The Second phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is La Nina. La Niña refers
to a period when the Sea Surface Temp in Equatorial pacific cool down by 3-5C as the east ward moving oceanic waves from South America bring more colder water towards equatorial pacific.
La Nina is followed by El Nino which concluded in Mid 2010. La Nina is now in a near full swing.
La Nina has opposite consequence as that of El Nino
La Nina also strengthens the Jet streams.
2] Blocking high pressure over Tibet
As cooler temperature builds in Tibet, a high pressure area builds over Northern India and also in Tibet, Right now the air pressure is as high as 1040mb. The Jet streams flowing from west to east are blocked by this air pressure so the jet stream splits into two branches or mostly jet stream digs South instead of North
As the high pressure blocks the jet stream, jet stream digs southwards in India covering areas of Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra and much of the North-Central India.
The Jet rarely flows over Jammu and Kashmir ( except for Western Disturbance).
So more cool air digs southwards than normal during La Nina.
The intensity of the high pressure over Tibet and North India is related to the La Nina phenomena.
(IMAGE AT LEFT- TEMP IMPACTS FROM LA NINA SHOWING COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF INDIA EXCEPT J&K.COLD EPISODES MEANS THIS PERIOD)
3] As mentioned above,
This year more cool air is going to flow over Central and North Central India. This means CENTRAL INDIA,NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA(EXCEPT JAMMU AND KASHMIR) AND SOUTHERN INDIA WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER
REGIONAL FORECAST
1] JAMMU AND KASHMIR-
THE STATE IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A WARMER WINTER THIS YEAR. NOTE WARMER MEANS COMPARITIVELY WARMER AND DOESN'T MEAN TEMPERATURES 10C ABOVE NORMAL! IT WILL BE AROUND (0.5+C) THAN AVERAGE
WHENEVER THERE WILL BE WESTERN DISTURBANCE, THEY WILL BE SEVERE AND I EXPECT 2-3 SEVERE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN 2010-11 EARLY PERIOD IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH
2] PUNJAB,CHANDIGARH,HARAYANA,DELHI
THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS (0.3-0.5 C) LESS THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
THIS FIGURE IS SMALL ITS A SIGNIFICANT FROM METEOROLOGY ASPECT.
THIS MEANS EVERYDAY THE TEMPERATURE MIGHT BE AROUND 1C LESS THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY.
3] MADHYA PRADESH,MAHARASHTRA,UTTAR PRADESH,BIHAR,JHARKHAND
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WITNESS VERY COOLER WINTER. TEMP WILL BE LESS THAN (1C) THAN AVERAGE****
THIS MEANS RECORDED TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY WILL BE LESS THAN
1C THAN RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY
** THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING MOST OF THE TIME IN WINTER. SOME PERIODS MIGHT WITNESS DIFFERENT VARIATIONS ACCORDING TO WEATHER CONDITIONS.
4] SOUTHERN INDIA
SOUTHERN INDIA WILL WITNESS A COOLER AND WETTER WINTER PERIOD BELONGING TO COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA
RIGHT-
THE PREDICTED MAP BY NOAA SHOWING WET CONDITIONS IN COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA ( NOV-FEB)
good forecast Akshay.
ReplyDeleteTend to agree with your views in all parameters.
Only I feel there will be a few more W.D.s than normal in the North.(La-Nina signs).
Meaning, more precipitations in North.
Certainly! As I wrote that when there will be WD then they will be very strong
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