Saturday, September 29, 2012

Announcing the "2012 Winter Forecast for India" on 14th Oct 2012

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster


The 2012 Winter forecast for India will be issued on Sunday,14th Oct 2012 at 1000hrs IST ( 0430hrs GMT). The Winter Forecast will be issued on the blog and the facebook page followed by a Scribd edition. 

This year's winter forecast will contain two parts. One will be a technical forecast for weather forecasters and the other will be a public version. A related graphic map also will be published!

Meanwhile, METD WEATHER declared the Monsoon withdrawal from Central India with it continuing across Western Maharashtra,Southern India and NE India. Some interesting weather is happening/going to happen in India. 

The Surface thai maps indicate a region of MSLP of 1004mb. The IR satellite imagery also shows extensive clouding across Eastern parts of Southern India especially across Andhra Pradesh ( over Hyderabad). The 850mb map shows that at the 850mb level,a low pressure will develop offshore Goa and vicinity coast. As this happens, till 4th Oct, heavy rains will occur across Northern AP,Northern Karnataka, Central and Southern Maharashtra. 

The parent 850mb low pressure will continue to remain offshore South Eastern India due to which an upsurge in the moisture level will happen across Central India. With better energetic conditions and moisture arriving, convective activity will trigger in these areas with thunderstorm rainfall expected in Nagpur in the afternoon hours till 4th Oct especially around 1-3 Oct. 

Stay tuned for the updates! 

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