More temp.drop expected

METD ALERT

METD ALERTS FOR SEVERE TEMPERATURE DROP IN NAGPUR IN THIS WEEK

I was busy with studies but was shocked to see the models when I
turned on the computer today

There has been severe snowfall in North india including areas like
srinagar,leh and the highway from srinagar to leh where we 'd probably
go in summer.
This is all due to increase in the activity from the Mediterranean sea.

the lowest temp recorded till now this year in NGP is 11.8 C
But this record is sure to be broken in this week as the cool wave is
approaching

It looks there will be a 9-10 Deg Celcius by Wednesday-thursday
In leh it is -24Celcius and in delhi it is as low as 8 Celcius

Also Argentina will be having tornadoes tomorrow

Akshay

RECORD OF WINDS,CENTRAL PRESSURE AND DAMAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN IN THE ARABIAN SEA.

METD WEATHER STATION
DATA OBSERVATION CENTER
NAGPUR,INDIA

SUBJECT-

OBSERVATIONS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN

DEAR ALL
WE HAVE RECEIVED THE DATAS FROM THE CYCLONE PHYAN LIKE WIND KNOT,CENTRAL PRESSURE, DESTRUCTION ETC

A cyclonic storm, 'Phyan' crossed Maharashtra coast between Alibag and
Mumbai between 1530 and 1630 hrs IST of 11th November, 2009.

Best track Positions and other parameters for cyclonic storm PHYAN over
the Arabian Sea during 09-12 November 2009


THE DATA IS AS FOLLOWS
DD/MM/YY/ TIME/ LAT/LONG/CI.NO/CENTRAL PRESSURE/WIND KNOT/GRADE
--------------------------------------------------------------------

9-11-2009

0900 11.0/72.0 1.5 1000 4 25 D
1200 11.5/71.5 1.5 1000 4 25 D
1800 12.0/71.0 1.5 1000 4 25 D

10-11-2009

0000 12.5/70.5 1.5 998 4 25 D
0300 13.0/70.5 2.0 998 5 30 DD
0600 13.5/70.5 2.0 998 5 30 DD
1200 14.5/71.0 2.0 996 5 30 DD
1800 15.0/71.0 2.5 996 6 35 CS
2100 15.5/71.5 2.5 994 6 35 CS

11-11-2009
0000 16.0/71.5 2.5 992 8 40 CS
0300 17.0/72.0 3.0 990 10 45 CS
0600 17.5/72.5 3.0 988 12 45 CS
0900 19.0/73.0 2.5 992 8 40 CS

The cyclonic storm "PHYAN" crossed Maharashtra coast between Alibag and
Mumbai between 1000 & 1100 UTC of 11th November, 2009.
1200 19.5/73.5 -- 996 5 30 DD
1500 20.0/74.0 -- 998 5 30 DD
1800 20.0/74.0 -- 1000 4 20 D

12-11-2009
0000 The system weakened into a well marked low pressure area over north Madhya Maharashtra.

GRADE INDEX

D : Depression,
DD : Deep depression
CS : Cyclonic Storm

----------------------------------------------------------------------

MUMBAI LOSS

THE CYCLONE WAS A DEEP DEPRESSION WHICH HAD LOST ITS PRECIOUS CORE. IT WAS FILLED WITH WATER AND WINDS ONLY

LANDFALL FOR MUMBAI WAS ON 11TH NOV 09 AT 15:30HRS
WIND KNOTS-
30
CENTRAL PRESSURE
998hPa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

FOR CYCLONGENESIS

Environmental features
The environmental features like sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear
of horizontal wind, mid-tropospheric humidity, low level convergence, upper level
divergence and coriolis force were favourable for cyclogenesis over the southeast
Arabian Sea on 9th. The sea surface temperature was about 28-30 deg. C over
southeast and east central Arabian Sea. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind
was low to moderate (10-20 knots) at 0830 hrs IST of 9th. In addition, the Madden
Julian Oscillation was also favourable, as its active phase lay over west equatorial.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

WIND HISTORY

The maximum wind (Kmph) reported at observatory stations of IMD at the
time of land fall are given below:
Pune : 68,
Goa 63,
Colaba,MUMBAI- 56.
However, according to Newspaper report, maximum surface wind was about
75 kmph along Maharashtra coast at the time of landfall.
The wind speed predicted at the time was 65--75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph
along and off Maharashtra and Goa coast based on 0830 IST observation of 10th
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Damage:

According to Newspaper report, the cyclone 'Phyan' caused damage to lives,
crops and properties in Goa and Konkan region especially in Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg,
Raigad and Thane districts. About 1000 houses in these districts suffered damages.
Seven persons died and 44 are missing due to cyclone 'Phyan'.
----------------------------------------------------------------------




METD WEATHER STATION
AKSHAY DEORAS

CYCLONE PHYAN BY-PASSES MUMBAI

CYCLONE PHYAN PASSES THROUGH MUMBAI

CYCLONE PHYAN HAS PASSED MUMBAI RECENTLY ONE HOUR BEFORE TIME PREDICTED BY METD

THE CYCLONE PASSED MUMBAI RAPIDLY WITH LESS DISTRUCTION THAN EXPECTED.

THE DATAS FROM THIS PASSBY WOULD BE LOADED SOON ON METD

AKSHAY

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN CHANGES PATH. TO HIT MUMBAI EVENING

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN CHANGES ITS PATH

THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED ITS PATH NOW.

THE CYCLONE EARLIER WAS TARGETED TO MOVE TO GUJRAT THROUGH ARABIAN SEA BUT NOW IT WILL MAKE A LANDFALL VERY SOON

THE WORST NEWS IS THAT THE LANDFALL WOULD BE HALF DISTANCE BETWEEN MUMBAI AND DAPOLI AT ABOUT 05:30PM TODAY<11TH NOV 09>

THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE NORTH TO GETTING OVER AMBARNATH AND MISSING MUMBAI BY 131-135 KMS. IT WOULD HEAD NORTH AND MISS NASHIK.

THE EXPECTED FIGURES AT THE LANDFALL WOULD BE ABOUT WINDS OF 63MPH GUSTING TO 81MPH. AT 18.3 N AND 73E.THIS WOULD BE THE MAXIMUM AND THEN IT WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. 

ALERT FOR

 

RASAYANI,AMBARNATH FOR THE LANDFALL AT NOV 11 2009 AT 05:30PM

HIGH WINDS IN MUMBAI ABOUT 63MPH. 

HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI.

ALERT.... 

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

ALERT FOR CYCLONE LANDFALL AT GUJRAT,RAJASTHAN DURING NOV 11-12 2009

METD WEATHER

ALERT DEPT

FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM FOUR IN THE ARABIAN SEA

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL STORM GUSTING ABOUT 43MPH

THE TROPICAL STORM WAS FORMED LATE NIGHT. THE WARM TEMP, MOISTURE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA AND LOW WIND SHEAR ALL CAME TOGETHER AND FORMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE EARLIER WERE EXPECTING FOR A CONVERSION INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONLY. 

THIS CENTER OF CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 200 MILES TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF GOA. THERE ARE MANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONE AS WELL.

AHEAD OF THIS SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TO THE EAST OF TAMIL NADU

CYCLONE-FOUR PATH

THE CYCLONES PATH IS NOW LOOKING CERTAIN. THE PREVIOUS MODEL SHOWED THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE EAST. BUT NOW IT IS LOOKING THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARDS GUJARAT.

AS THE EVENING FALLS DOWN AND NIGHT ARRIVES,THE MORE MOISTURE RELEASED FROM THE SEA WILL AGGREGATE THE CYCLONE MORE AND THE WINDS WOULD TURN PROBABLY TO 63MPH AND GUSTING TO 81MPH. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MAXIMUM WE CAN DEDUCE FROM THIS CYCLONE AFTER WHICH IT WOULD DISINTEGRATE.

                      NOVEMBER 11 2009

1]   THE CYCLONE WOULD MAKE A LANDFALL AT 60KM AWAY FROM MAHUVA WHICH IS ON NH 8E ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 5:30 AM IST

2]  THEN IT WOULD GO TO NORTH AND WILL COME IN BHANDANA ON NH 8E JUST AFTER FEW HOURS.

3]  THEN IT WOULD BE ABOUT 19KMS AWAY FROM CITY OF BHAVNAGAR ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 07:00 AM IST

<   BHAVNAGAR WOULD HAVE A DISTANCE OF 19-21KMS AWAY FROM THIS CYCLONE AND THE SPEED OF WIND IN THIS CITY WOULD BE ABOUT 62KM/HR>

NOVEMBER 12 2009

THE CYCLONE WILL RECEIVE RESISTANCE FROM THE JET STREAMS SO IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL REACH PALI IN RAJASTHAN. 

THE DISTANCE WOULD BE 37KM FROM THE CITY AND THE WINDS WOULD BE ABOUT 55KM/HR

CYCLONE WOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW

THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE ON NOV 12 2009 AT 05:30PM IST

JODHPUR WOULD BE IN ITS WIND RADIUS.......

THEN IT WOULD MOVE TO NORTH AND WOULD BRING WINDS  ONLY

THERE WOULD BE RAINS TODAY AT NAGPUR AS WELL AS TOMORROW...

PLEASE MAIL THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR DEAR ONES LIVING IN RAJASTHAN,GUJARAT

NEXT UPDATE-

18:00 HRS IST ON NOV 10 2009

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

NAGPUR

 

IDA LOSING STRENGTH. VERY CLOSE TO THE LANDFALL

TROPICAL STORM IDA HAS STARTED LOSING ITS STRENGTH

IDA,WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY DOMINATING BY CAT 2 FORMAT IS NOW A CAT-1 HURRICANE.

AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING, IDA HAS LOST ITS CENTER OF AXIS THAT IS THE "EYE"

This is a sign of losing its organized and symmetric structure. The winds of ida are now round 80mph with the central pressure of 993mb.

Its current location is 

25.8N   88.2W

NHC has issued hurricane watch for most of the southern coasts from 

PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

Ida would surely rise the water level of the sea near its landfall by 4-6 above the ground level...

already it is struggling with a lot of dry air present around it. After the landfall, a close upper level trough <low pressure> will damp cold air in it and the hurricane will disintegrate...

The moisture from Ida would be present in the landfall areas after it disappears as it had happened in the case of hurricane Fred.

Ida's journey has been exciting!!

METD 

Akshay

SNOW REPORTS FROM NORTH INDIA.

SNOWFALL IN UPPER-REACHES OF NORTH INDIA

A HUGE JET WHICH IS SET OVER NORTHERN INDIA HAS BROUGHT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR

THE REPORTS RECEIVED ARE FROM 

1]GULMARG,55 KMS AWAY FROM SRINAGAR

2]Farkian Gali, Sadna Top, Razdan pass, Tulail and Gurez along the Line of Control also experienced mild to heavy snowfall

3]MANALI AND ROHTANG PASS

4]DISTRICT HQ OF LAHAUL,SPITI -  KYELONG RECEIVED SNOWFALL AS WELL..

SNOW WAS ABOUT 3 INCHES

ALSO AREAS LIKE

5] Gumri and Matian near Zojilla Pass in Kargil and Khardungla in Leh were lashed by the snow. RECEIVED HEAVY SNOWFALL

6] Pahalgam belt Sheeshnag and Panjtarni 

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MORE IN THE NEXT few HOURS

AKSHAY DEORAS

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING SOUTH. WILL TURN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING IN THE SOUTH.


DEAR ALL,
IT IS CLOUDY NOW FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS BECAUSE OF THE IMPACT OF THE GIANT
THUNDERSTORM WHICH HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF INDIA.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS CREATED FROM A THUNDERSTORM CELL FROM EAST ASIA.
IT CAME IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND AS THE EL-NINO IS STRENGTHENING MORE
MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN THIS STORM. THE SST ARE WARN ENOUGH WITH A
PATCH OF 32DEG CELCIUS WHICH IS GOOD FOR STRENGTHENING.
AT THE PRESENT MODELS, I CAN SURELY SAY IT WILL AGGREGATE..
IT IS GOING TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ATLEAST WHICH HAS GUSTS
ABOUT 35-39 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO NORTH IN NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
WHEN IT DOES SO.IT WILL START WEAKENING AND SOME COOL AIR FROM NORTH
WILL DAMP COOL AIR IN IT MAINLY OVER M.P

HOWEVER,IT MAY SWING TO NORTH INDIA WITH A THUNDERSTORM IF IT GAINS
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SURVIVE THE COOL WINDS AND JETS FROM NORTH-WEST




HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY IN  KERELA AND MAHARASHTRA.
PANAJI,GOA MIGHT FALL AT THE CENTER OF IT VERY SOON

NAGPUR WEATHER-

CLOUDY FOR TODAY<09 NOV>
INCREASE IN RAINS<10 NOV>
THUNDERSTORM <11 NOV>***************

*********  ---       SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION

STAY ALERT AND I WILL LET YOU KNOW IF THERE IS ANYTHING



METD ALERT DEPT
AKSHAY

IDA Strengthening

Hurricane Ida has strengthened

Hurricane ida has strengthened now. It is moving with cat 1 format. 

The hurricane has more potential of turning into cat 2 very soon.The SST on the way and the moisture will add more to the storm.

Infrared images shows  that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere.The wind shear is moderate and the Cape is less which is very favorable for intensification. 

It would intensify till sunday afternoon. Then a low pressure system moving from Western USA will dump cool air in it. It will disintensify and will also move in cool  SST. 

we will update later

TROPICAL STORM IDA

TROPICAL STORM IDA

 

Tropical Storm Ida has emerged in to the western Caribbean and has regained tropical storm status.

As of 7 AM EST, Ida was moving to the north at 8 mph into the western Caribbean with top winds of 45 mph. Ida is located about 280 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has now been issued for Grand Cayman Island.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen northward to San Felipe Mexico.

The government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the Province of Del Rio.

The system is expected to slowly move northward toward the Yucatan Channel and then into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as it strengthens back to a moderate to strong Tropical Storm.

Residents along the Yucatan need to monitor Ida closely for strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Beyond this weekend mariners and residents of the northeast Gulf of Mexico will need to monitor the progress of Ida as it heads slowly northward.

Ida will combine with a strong High Pressure area to the north to bring a strong pressure gradient that will result in gusty winds all across eastern Florida down into the Keys and Gulf of Mexico.

High Surf and Dangerous Rip Currents will persist for days and boaters and swimmers are urged to use extreme caution. If you are not a good swimmer you don't want to press your luck and take on the waves you could lose your life.

Stay tuned all weekend to The Weather Channel with frequent updates on Tropical Storm Ida with Tropical Expert Dr Steve Lyons and Weather.Com.

On average, about one tropical storm develops every two years during the month of November and every three years a hurricane develops. The southwest Caribbean is the most favored location for this to occur.

The last season with a named storm in November was 2008 when Paloma developed and impacted the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

METD LOOKING TO FORECAST TORNADOES IN SOUTH AMERICA THIS YEAR

TIme for some more action!

Well,My friend Reed Timmer might be heading to South America to
Argentina for catching some tornadoes. This time of the year, Areas of
Argentina receive tornadoes.
Outside USA,Argentina and Bangladesh have high tornadoes risks.
Even,METD is looking forward for Forecasting the springs of Argentina
to catch some tornadoes at least not personally but through a RADAR.
We'd Let you know soon whether we are going to forecast tornadoes in
argentina or not

Akshay Deoras

20 TORNADOES IN USA ON 29TH OCT 09

Tornado reports for USA for 29/10/09

The huge trough was a dangerous one. It created 20 tornadoes mainly in Louisiana,some parts of texas,Arkansas,one in Oklahoma

Now It is seeming that there are clear days ahead with high pressure systems. 

METD 

Akshay