SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL USA ON THURSDAY

Severe Weather in Central plains of USA by thursday.

The current 84 hr forecasts of GFS show potential for storms in the central plains of USA.

analysis

The pacific North-west trough is expected to shatter near central plains. This trough will show some spins widely over Kansas.

The 850mb wind shows a clear area of rotation around central USA including states from Oklahoma-North Dakota.

A key feature of Instability represented by cape will be present over Oklahoma which will be 2500J/kg.

Moisture content is good with dewpoints of 70F. Storm Prediction Center has issued SEVERE warning for thursday by covering areas from Arkansas to some parts of south Dakota.   

The weather will start to pick up moderate since wednesday only

stay tuned for updates. A good weather for thunderstorms...

Mostly at the hour it seems there will be squall lines..

METD 

Akshay

 

 

 

Slight Weather risk for sunday. Interesting Feature to dig in

Slight Threat On sunday in upper USA

 

The Cut of flow is expected to Join the Main Stream Across west-east USA.

The areas where the trough is expected to remain will be near the Lakes area in Usa

 

Ahead of this feature,Little Instability is present in the upper atmosphere which might generate some thunderstorms.SPC SAYS 15% risk in the lake area,

 

another Unique feature will be seen on sunday morning when the pacific north west trough will dig in the Central Plains of USA. the atlantic south-east trough is also expected to enter the east coasts of USA. A similar Trough setup of tornadoes is there but there is poor moisture and instablity in the atmosphere, so Less scope for tornadoes and some scope for thunderstorms around the lake area.

 

 

METD

Akshay

 

 

Thunderstorm Watch no 742

Squall Line cells at oklahoma East,Arkansas,Missourie

As forecasted weather of thunderstorms is currently hovering over Arkansas with some part in Oklahoma.

Total 66 reports have been received from SPC.

42 reports are about hails and the remaining 24 about high winds.

SPC has issued two thunderstorms Watches. 

the Squall line is currently over South East Oklahoma,north west Arkansas and south,south west Mississippi.

the speed of Squall line is about 25-30 knots.

SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for Severe Thunderstorms..

Stay tuned for updates. many Storm Chasers are chasing today

METD ALERT DEPARTMENT

Akshay

Show Begins

And the First Phase of the show begins

As seen in this Radar image from SPC,The Cells have Started to form in Topeka,Kansas.

current cells are Near Manhattan,Kansas.

The Trough is over state of Nebraska and all is moving like thought of!!

The chance of Weather Deterioration for Monday also there. SPC has reduced threat for Severe weather by Wednesday

METD

Akshay

Weather Deterioration less for Monday in Western us. Good in Ok,Kansas

Chance of Weather deterioration for monday quiet less in Western Usa

The North-west Pacific trough is expected to enter the North-Central Parts of USA Sunday night <usa time>

this trough has low chance of creating weather disturbances in the western parts as the cold fronts from the north will cover areas.

This will aggravate the Trough and when it will reach the central plains they are likely to get detached from the Main pacific trough.

The temperatures in the central USA for monday morning,monday night<us time> is Warm 60 F quiet favourable for storms

Ahead of this the chance of squall lines is more. A squall line is a line of severe thunderstorms that can form along and/or ahead of a cold front.

so Nebraska has good scope for weather severe.Circular motions of troughs is already approaching

Oklahoma East and kansas east have rising 0-1000m EHI's

tornado probability prevalent 

METD

Akshay

New Threats in the Atlantic

NHC has given three convective zones in the atlantic ocean.One of this convection has a medium chance of developing into a TD Over the next day and later into a tropical storm as it moves west-northwest.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED

 

The other two convective systems have a slight chance of development in the next 2 days

 

 

Stay Tuned

METD

Chance of Severe weather outbreak reduces

The current GFS 48hr shows that the pacific north-west trough will come to the central USA ON monday but instantly will get detached from its main source.

This will surely reduce the Weather Threat but Some threats for thunderstorms is prevalent.

There are rains and high winds likely with hails at proper updrafts. 

The GFS 300mb for monday shows circular rotation in the upper atmosphere which will move the trough in a circular manner

the areas will be the states to the west of oklahoma with powerful storms in texas,nebraska

Stay Tuned for updates

METD WEATHER

Akshay

Weather Turn over on monday

Possible Weather outbreak on Monday 21st sept 09

The Troughs from the pacific north-west in USA will advance towards south-central us covering areas such as Oklahoma south east,Kansas East and especially over Kansas-Arkansas Border,East Nebraska,extending to south-east of south Dakota

The GFC FORECAST MODELS INDICATE good Values for 200 millibar,500 millibar Winds and Heights.

A 60-70 Degree F temperatures are likely on monday in this region

There will Be circular rotation over Missourie Valley. 

So hails and thunderstorms are possible in this area with chance of precipitation! 

METD 

AKSHAY

Super Typhoon, Choi-wan in the pacific

Super Typhoon Choi-wan,

After a Drop on cyclones the last week, we are now back!

A Cat. 5 Typhoon Choi-wan with extremely high wind gusts round this time is moving 17.9N.145E

The storms motion is drifting towards northern side. It is expected that its gusts will increase and become at the most of 195mph.

It's moving in the sufficiently warm pacific ocean with some hot bands on its way.

It was created with a tropical depression on september 12.

Its quiet symmetrical and the center organized as well

Stay tuned for updates

Akshay

Notice

DEAR ALL
DUE TO SOME MAINTANENCE WORK,AKSHAY'S GYAAN AND METD WEATHER STATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE FOR 6 DAYS. THE OFFICE WILL CLOSE FROM TOMORROW MORNING,08 SEPTEMBER 09 TO 13 SEPTEMBER 09.METD AND AKSHAY'S GYAAN WILL REOPEN ON MONDAY,14TH SEPTEMBER 09.THIS IS DUE TO MAINTANENCE AND OFF- WORK LOAD HOURS. AKSHAY'S GYAAN WILL BE BACK WITH FRESH ARTICLES THE NEXT WEEK
INCOVENIENCE IS DEEPLY REGRETTED
AKSHAY

MIXED WEATHER IN US

MIXED WEATHER IN US FOR THE COMING DAYS

IT WILL BE WET IN MID WEST,NORTH WEST,SOUTH

CURRENTLY A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF USA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAINS IN THE MID WEST AND CAN BRING SNOW IN THE NORTH-WEST HIGH ELEVATION AREAS BECAUSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

Talking about East

East Usa has potential for rains.

AKSHAY

IMAGE CREDIT-  www.weather.com 

AERIAL VIEW FROM PLANE!!

DEAR ALL

PLEASE SEE THIS VIDEO TAKEN BY ME FROM 34000FT ON MY WAY TO THE CAPITAL OF INDIA

SNOW CLADED MOUNTAINS ALL THE WAY IN THIS VIDEO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN BAY OF BENGAL WITH KNOTS OF 25-30MPH

LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPES IN CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

A LOW PRESSURE AREA, LW-14 HAS BEEN FORMED AT THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF BAY OF BENGAL

current location for maximum rotation of winds

20,54N 88,38E

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ORISSA COAST . YESTERDAY'S TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHWEST BAY TO CENTRAL BAY NOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRE OF LOW PRESSURE AREA TO EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL . SOUTHWEST MONSOON STRONG TO VIGOROUS OVER SOUTHEAST BAY AND ANDAMAN SEA; STRONG OVER NORTHEAST BAY , WESTCENTRAL BAY AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

this area has cyclonic knots of about 25-30. As per Saffir-simpson scale it is considered in the category of tropical depression.The SST indicates value of 28Degree Celcius.

Areas such as puri in orrisa and the entire east coast of orrisa will receive severe rains and especially thunderstorms.

The TD will Move northwards a little and is expected to bring thunderstorms in Kolkata Very soon.

The CLoud motion vectors are indicating an eastward turn for this td.

This will weaken much due to direction change in the coming days

image on the right shows the development of this TD

warning for-

Orrisa, Southern West Bengal,Bangladesh,Raipur

SEVERE RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGIONS.

FISHERMEN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO ENTER BAY OF BENGAL FOR NEXT 48-52 HOURS

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

METD WEATHER INVESTIGATIOR

AKSHAY DEORAS

TROPICAL STORM ERICA FORMS

TROPICAL STORM ERICA FORMS

Tropical Storm Erica has been formed. it is expected to hit antiqua barbuda,puerto rico with winds 70-80 kmph.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

METD AKSHAY

HURRICANE JIMENA-THE FIRST CAT 5 HURRICANE OF THIS SEASON

HURRICANE JIMENA CROSES THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE 5.

JIMENA HURRICANE WAS CAT 5 HURRICANE YESTERDAY 1ST SEPTEMBER.

JIMENA'S RECORDED SPEED WAS WINDS 155MPH

WITH THE PRSSURE 931MB

JIMENA IS HEADING TOWARDS GURRERO NEGRO.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL GET CONVERTED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TILL IT ARRIVES IN GURRERO NEGRO.

here is a public advisiory from National Hurricane Center

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULAFROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANEWARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHEREWITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECTLIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THEBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIAON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTAON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICALSTORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIAPENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THEWEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOSANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THATTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OFMAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INNORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITEDSTATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEEDIS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THECORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THESOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THECENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT JIMENAIS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES INLAND.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO140 MILES...220 KM.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONSOF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLEISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCELIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERINGWAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJACALIFORNIA PENINSULA....SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...LOCATION...24.5N 112.1WMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPHPRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPHMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MBTHE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

METD

AKSHAY