Strong western disturbance to impact many states of India

FROM THE BLOG EDITION: http://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/strong-western-disturbance-to-impact-many-states-of-india-53136

PUBLISHED 10TH MARCH 2016

Strong western disturbance to impact many states of India

Akshay Deoras  

 @akshaydeoras

 | 

Thursday 10 March 2016

Wet and stormy weather is in store for many states

A change of weather in northern, central and eastern India is expected as winter ends and pre-monsoon season commences, with the start of March. An upper air trough (also known as western disturbance) will reach India by Friday, March 11 and destabilise weather till Monday, March 14.

Unlike last year, the start of pre-monsoon season in 2016 has been sluggish. In the first nine days of March, only parts of Maharashtra, Rajasthan and eastern Madhya Pradesh have received excess rainfall. The rainfall in other areas has been below normal.

Lack of strong western disturbances and a strong El Niño have kept India's winter warm and dry this season. As per India Meteorological Department (IMD), January to February is classified as winter season whereas March to May is pre-monsoon period. In January and February 2016, Jammu and Kashmir received just 78.8mm rainfall as against the normal of 212.9mm (strong departure of -63 per cent). India as a whole has received 17.9mm rainfall as against the normal 41.4mm (departure of -57 per cent). Region wise, rainfall departures in northwest India is -68 per cent whereas that in central India is -49 per cent. All subdivisions in north India have received scanty rainfall.

Lack of clouds and rain have kept temperatures high in otherwise cold states like Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Between December 2015 and early March 2016, these states have witnessed maximum temperatures that were 2-4°C above normal.

As the western disturbance hits India, here's what can be expected.

All India rainfall between 1st January and 29th February 2016 (India Meteorological Department)

Friday, March 11

Effect of western disturbance will commence in India. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in western parts of Jammu and Kashmir (including Kashmir valley). As a result, Srinagar will receive rainfall too. Rain, coupled with cloudy weather will keep daytime temperatures low. Srinagar's maximum temperature on March 9 was 7°C above normal. Hence, some respite from the heat is anticipated. Higher reaches of the state (such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam where temperatures are still below freezing at night time) will get snowfall.

Risks of water logging and flooding remain in Kashmir valley due to the rainfall forecast. Last year also, series of active western disturbances coupled with warmer weather caused a lot of rain and flooding in the state. People in low-lying areas of the state need to stay alert. 

Thunderstorms along with rainfall are expected in western parts of Punjab and Rajasthan. There is also a possibility of hailstorm in the region bordering Pakistan. Over the night, light rain can be expected in north-western parts of Madhya Pradesh and western Maharashtra. 

Saturday, March 12

Effect of the western disturbance will be the highest on this day. Heavy rainfall is expected in western Jammu and Kashmir. On this day as well, the risk of water logging/flooding continues. Considering the rainfall forecast, rivers like Jhelum can swell-up and hence people living nearby must take precautions, in addition other residents of low-lying areas. Snowfall will continue in the higher regions. Areas in Himachal Pradesh (tourist places like Manali, Shimla, Kullu) will get rain and have an higher risk of landslides.

Thunderstorms (some severe) are possible in north Indian plains including Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, New Delhi, adjoining parts of Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh and northern parts of Madhya Pradesh. Hailstorms may also be witnessed in these areas due to atmospheric instability (particularly in western UP and adjoining parts of Rajasthan). 

Rain/thunderstorms are expected in parts of Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra (Marathwada and Vidarbha).

Over the night, rainfall can be expected to spread in parts of Jharkhand and Bihar. 

Sunday, March 13

The effect of western disturbance in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh will start retreating. Chances of thunderstorms in north Indian plains continue because of atmospheric instability. Some thunderstorms will be severe and are expected to bring hail (especially in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana). Jharkhand, Bihar and Chhattisgarh will also receive some showers. There is chance of rain in Vidarbha. 

Monday, March 14

Thunderstorm/rain activity will move towards east India and weather will normalise in northern and central parts of the country. If present weather models are to be believed, rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms (some severe) will be seen in Bihar, Jharkhand and eastern Uttar Pradesh, northern Chhattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

Expected impacts

Apart from potential flooding in Jammu and Kashmir, this round of rainfall/thunderstorm will impact horticulture and crops in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra (Vidarbha and Marathwada) and eastern states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar. Most Rabi crops are in their maturity phase and some have been harvested. Hence, rains can damage the harvested produce if not stored in dry places. Hailstorms will also have the potential of damaging the crops/orchards if hail nets are not used. 

As some thunderstorms will be severe, the associated threat from strong winds and lightning strikes would also be there in this period. 

Western disturbance to bring rainfall, snow in north India

FROM THE NEWS EDITION: http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/western-disturbance-to-bring-rainfall-snow-in-north-india-52632

Western disturbance to bring rainfall, snow in north India

Barring north India, other parts of the country will witness warm weather

A western disturbance approaching India will bring fresh bout of rainfall and snowfall in the northern part of the country.

This is good news for tourists visiting Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh where a thick blanket of snow will greet them.

However, due to possibility of landslides the Jammu-Srinagar highway can witness disruptions from January 28 to 30. Besides, some high-altitude villages in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh may be cut-off due to heavy snowfall.

The interesting thing this year is that parts of central and eastern India (where rainfall chances are generally slim during winter) have received normal to excess rainfall.

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The map shows excess rainfall in central and eastern India between January 14 and 20 January, 2016 Courtesy: India Meteorological Department

This was the result of an upper air trough around mid January which brought rainfall in these parts. Jharkhand and the eastern region of Madhya Pradesh have already received heavy rainfall.

Snowfall, rains in north

The effect of the western disturbance will be felt in northern India from Thursday onwards. Cloud cover is expected in western Jammu and Kashmir, the western part of Punjab and Chandigarh. Light rainfall is expected in parts of Jammu and Kashmir.

The minimum temperature is likely to rise by a couple of degrees in these areas due to cloud cover.

On Friday, the impact of the western disturbance will be the maximum. Rainfall is expected in Jammu. Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in the Kashmir Valley (Gulmarg, Sonamarg and other hill stations). Srinagar is likely to receive both rainfall and snowfall. Snowfall is also expected in Kargil and Ladakh.

The higher reaches of Himachal Pradesh will also get moderate to heavy snowfall on Friday. This includes places like Manali, Keylong and areas in Lahaul and Spiti valley.

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The map shows scanty rainfall in areas (marked in yellow ) in north India between January 1 and January 20, 2016 Courtesy: India Meteorological Department

Like Srinagar, a mixture of rains and snowfall is expected in Shimla too. High altitude places in Uttarakhand will receive light snowfall.

Coming to the plains, rainfall is expected in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Chandigarh and other adjacent areas.

As a result of cloud cover, rainfall and snowfall, maximum temperatures will plunge in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab and remain below normal.

Rainfall and snow will continue on Saturday in the early hours, but from the afternoon, the effect of the western disturbance will wane.

As per current weather models, it looks like the western disturbance will fail to bring any rainfall in Delhi and adjacent areas. But with increase in the moisture level, foggy conditions may be expected between January 29 and January 31.

Barring north India, other parts of the country will witness warm weather. During the weekend, an anti-cyclone (a high pressure region) in the lower levels of the troposphere will move over western India.

This will cause warm conditions in Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka (coastal areas), particularly between January 28 and February 1.

Awaiting showers

The wait for widespread rainfall and snowfall in north India is on as dry weather continues to affect agriculture and tourism.

In the National Capital Region, proper "natural cleansing" of air could not take place due to poor rainfall.

Haryana, Chandigarh and New Delhi have not received any rainfall this year. Rajasthan, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand have received scanty rainfall (60 to 99 per cent below normal) till now.

Going by data, the rainfall scenario is poor in certain places after the withdrawal of last year's summer monsoon.

Between October 1, 2015 and January 27, 2016, New Delhi has received just 1.6 mm rainfall. This is just 5 per cent of normal rainfall when considered over a three-month period.

Article on Maharashtra's drought (marathi language)

Published in Tarun Bharat newspaper Asamant supplement, 17th January 2016

Link- http://goo.gl/i8Ydxl

India is experiencing a warmer winter

FROM THE NEWS EDITION: http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/india-is-experiencing-a-warmer-winter-52435

DATE OF UPLOAD: 13TH JANUARY 2016

Persistent above normal temperatures have been recorded in many regions of the country

After the monsoon, it's the winter season which has played truant with India. More than half of the winter season has passed, but the characteristic chill felt in many parts is missing due to persistent above normal temperatures.

Palam in New Delhi witnessed a maximum temperature of 25.7°C on January 12, 2016, which was 6°C above normal. Minimum temperature in this region on the morning of January 13 was 13.9°C, 7°C above normal. Srinagar, which is in the middle of Chilai Kalan (40-day harsh winter period), witnessed minimum temperature of -2.5°C on January 13, which is still 5°C above normal. Most places in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, western Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra witnessed maximum temperatures which were 2-5°C above normal on January 12. 

This warm weather might be good news for those who don't like the winter, but such weather and temperature fluctuations adversely impact the growth of winter crops. Apples of Himachal Pradesh and strawberries of Maharashtra have been affected by the warm and dry weather.

Generally, during winter, temperatures often fluctuate but never stay above or below normal for extended periods. This means that a few days during winter may not experience cold conditions. People living in northern Indian states observe this rise in temperatures whenever the weather turns cloudy due to arrival of a western disturbance. But once the western disturbance passes, temperatures return to normal or many times fall below normal. 

But this winter season (October 2015 onwards), the number of such warm days appears to be high. More importantly, anomalies in the maximum temperatures have been higher than those in the minimum temperatures. This means the days have been quite warm. This weather data will give us an idea of how warm the winter has been.

Temperature anomalies in various cities 

Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monitors city temperatures in many parts of the world, including India. Below data represents temperature anomalies between October 10, 2015 and January 10, 2016. For example, Srinagar 1.01°C means temperature in Srinagar during the period was 1.01°C above normal. It must be noted that this data is preliminary and official data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) may differ. 

Aurangabad (Maharashtra)  3.05°C

Bhuj (Gujarat)  2.88°C 

Solapur (Maharashtra) 2.86°C

Hyderabad 2.67°C

Kurnool (Andhra Pradesh) 2.27°C

Gwalior  2.16°C

Veraval (Gujarat) 2.09°C

Dehradun  2.04°C

Pune 1.85°C

Nagpur  1.68°C

Jaipur  1.6°C

Patiala  1.43°C

Panaji  1.41°C

Jodhpur  1.27°C

Patna  1.27°C

Surat  1.2°C

Bengaluru 1.18°C

Safdarjung (Delhi) 1.15°C

Ahmedabad  1.09°C

Dumdum (Kolkata) 1.08°C

Srinagar  1.01°C

Trivandrum  0.98°C

Amritsar  0.79°C

Mumbai  0.68°C

Chennai  0.64°C

The range -0.5°C to +0.5°C of normal is considered as the normal range. But anything more than +0.5°C is considered as a positive anomaly (warmer than normal). Numerically, the above figures might appear small (such as 0.7°C), but they are significant in the case of temperature anomalies, especially in the case of Aurangabad which was quite warm. 

Temperature departures from October-December 2015

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October to December maximum temperature departure from normal (Image Credit: World Ag Weather)

 

Monsoon withdraws from most of India in October and it's after that the temperatures start falling. That's why the period from October is important for analysis of temperatures. IMD calls October to December the post-monsoon period and January to February the winter period. Usually, meteorologists consider December to February as the winter period in the northern hemisphere, but it's better to consider temperature data of October to February for the purpose of analysis. 

Above image shows maximum temperature departures between October and December 2015. The scale used is in degree Celsius. Most of India has been shaded in yellow, orange and red colours which suggest above normal maximum temperatures. Grey areas represent normal temperatures whereas blue areas represent below normal temperatures. 

This image clearly shows that central India has been the warmest (highest anomaly) as compared to other parts of India. Parts of Maharashtra have seen significant above normal maximum temperatures (1.5-3°C above normal) with that in Marathwada being 2-3°C above normal. Eastern Madhya Pradesh is 1.5-2°C above normal, Gujarat 1-1.5°C, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh 0.5C-2°C, Delhi-NCR 1.5-2°C, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana 2-3°C. In northeastern states and Tamil Nadu, the temperature anomaly is 0.5-1°C. In most of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and some parts of Rajasthan, maximum temperatures have been in the normal zone. 

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October to December minimum temperature departures from normal (Image credit: World Ag Weather)

Talking about minimum temperature anomalies, once again the highest impact is seen in Maharashtra, especially Marathwada where minimum temperatures have been 2-3°C above normal in the crucial winter period. In southern India, anomalies have been lower, in the 0.5°C-1°C range. In parts of Delhi-NCR, they are in the 1°C-1.5°C range. Temperatures were below normal in eastern Sikkim, western Assam and adjoining West Bengal in this period.  

Many parts of India had witnessed mini-summer like conditions in October. The Marathwada-Telangana- northeastern Karnataka belt had received very poor monsoon rainfall and now, temperatures in this belt have been above normal. This is likely to cause a significant impact on agriculture in these areas.

Temperature departures in December 2015

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December maximum temperature departure from normal (Image credit: World Ag Weather)

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December minimum temperature departure from normal (Image credit: World Ag Weather)

An interesting temperature pattern can be observed in the above images. Most of the areas below the Tropic of Cancer were warmer than normal as compared to areas above it. Temperatures were sort of normal in most of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. But maximum temperatures were above normal in many areas of Rajasthan whereas minimum temperatures were below normal (blue). Over eastern India, maximum temperatures were normal but minimum temperatures were slightly above normal in December 2015. 

What is causing this pattern? 

Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean are being held responsible but the mechanism through which El Niño is impacting India's winter isn't clear yet. At first glance, the problem seems to be more local than global. 

After the southwest monsoon withdraws, north-westerly winds (winds blowing from the northwest direction) set over India in the lower levels of the troposphere. We know that winds blow from a high pressure region to a low pressure region. During post-monsoon months, the air pressure is higher in northern parts (higher latitudes) than that in southern parts (lower latitudes). This is mainly because of reduction in surface heating in the high latitude areas. 

As a result, India gets these north-westerly winds which are responsible for bringing northern cold air to various parts of India. 

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Normal v anomalous wind pattern at 5,000 feet above ground (Credit: NCEP)

While the left side of the image above represents the climatology (the usual pattern) of winds at an altitude of 5,000 feet between November and January, the right side shows anomaly (variations) in these winds observed between November 2015 and January 10, 2016. Anomalous winds from the western and southwestern directions were present during this period (shown by arrows). This implies that these anomalous winds didn't allow the penetration of cold air from higher latitudes which kept central and southern India warm (at least during the nights). 

Weaker and a lower number of western disturbances are responsible for less cold weather in north India and also in other parts of India. A western disturbance is not only a source of rain or snow but also of cold air. Frequent, stronger and lower latitude western disturbances keep on supplying cold air which is mandatory for proper winter conditions. 

The biggest question now is why these western disturbances have been weak and less in number this time. Some research has been done in the past on the relationship between western disturbances and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The research says that western disturbances tend to intensify over northwest India under El Niño conditions. However, we are seeing the opposite occur and, hence, need to understand the reasons behind this trend.

Key weather phenomena to follow in 2016

FROM THE BLOG EDITION: http://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/key-weather-phenomena-to-follow-in-2016-52260

DATE OF PUBLISHING: 31ST DECEMBER 2015

From western disturbances to the monsoon, a look at possibilities of various weather phenomena in India

Right from unprecedented episodes of "unseasonal" rain and hailstorms in early summer to severe floods in the late monsoon, 2015's weather kept everyone on their toes. Most of these events didn't occur out of the blue but the way they impacted us (for instance the March floods of Kashmir) showed a lack of preparedness. The impact of 2015's weather phenomena like the poor monsoon is so severe that sustaining lives in parched areas like Marathwada of Maharashtra, Bundelkhand of Uttar Pradesh and numerous villages of Madhya Pradesh till the next monsoon is going to be very difficult. Agriculture is the worst-hit in these regions and water levels are critically low (especially in parts of Maharashtra). Eventhough summer is months away, a large number of tankers are already being used to provide water, which shows the severity of the drought. 

As 2015 was the second consecutive year of below normal monsoon rainfall, all eyes will be on the monsoon of 2016. But other meteorological phenomena will occur too, which should not be underestimated as they would have the potential to take a heavy toll. The interesting thing is that these annual weather phenomena are set to occur in India in 2016 but no one knows how strong or weak they would be. This is because of the inability of weather models to give precise information of the weather over a time scale of many months. The intensity of weather events generally doesn't repeat on yearly scales. For example it isn't necessary for 2016 to be a below-normal monsoon rain year just because 2014 and 2015 were. But learning from past weather events definitely helps in preparing better for the next impacts. 

El Niño nearing peak intensity

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IMAGE 1: Weekly Sea Surface Temperature anomalies showing domination of El Niño (black dotted circle). Red colour indicates significant above normal sea surface temperatures

Courtesy: NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Before we look at the aforementioned meteorological phenomena, it is important to take a look at the present status of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. It is pretty strong and is already producing significant global impacts such as recent flooding in the United Kingdom and globally high temperatures. But data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Central Pacific Ocean suggests El Niño nearing its peak intensity or perhaps it has already peaked and henceforth, will start decaying. It is likely that this El Niño will be placed in the top three strong El Niño events (1997-98, 1982-83) ever recorded since 1950. El Niño conditions will definitely continue for some period in 2016. 

Behaviour of Western Disturbances till monsoon of 2016 

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IMAGE 2: Rainfall in India between October 1 and December 23, 2015. India has received 20 per cent below normal rainfall in this period. 

Courtesy: India Meteorological Department 

Frequency and intensity of western disturbances impacting North India have been lower in 2015 (i.e October onwards). Stronger western disturbances often produce effect (i.e rain) on the plains of North India which is beneficial for proper growth of winter crops. But, as India is yet to witness such a powerful system, the post-monsoon rainfall situation in the plains of North India remains grim. Between October 1 and December 23, Delhi got just 5 per cent of its normal rainfall. More observations suggest that between October 1 and December 29 2015, Palam has got just 2mm rain (27mm less than normal), Safdarjung just 1mm (39mm less than normal), Chandigarh 19mm rain (40mm less than normal). Interestingly, Jammu and Kashmir has got excess rainfall as the western disturbances have been highly localised until now.  

The first thing to look at in 2016 would be the frequency and intensity of western disturbances when they strike North India. Their strength in January and February will be a deciding factor for states like Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Jammu and Kashmir's water reservoirs largely depend on snow streams and net snowfall/rainfall determines the state of agriculture, flora-fauna, tourism etc. Any prolonged dry spell or irregular precipitation patterns in these months will have the potential to affect these states. In the plains of North India (particularly Delhi-NCR), improper rainfall patterns or scanty rainfall in these two winter months will not be of any help in cleaning the air i.e reducing the air pollution. 

Mid-February onwards, temperatures in the hilly areas start increasing and rise above the freezing point in many regions. March witnesses warmer days and hence, snowfall gets converted to rainfall in these areas. Due to this rain, flooding potentials increase considerably in rivers like the Jhelum and subsequently in cities like Srinagar which was observed in March 2015. An increased and intense western disturbance activity in March 2015 flooded Srinagar and parts of the Kashmir valley, causing heavy damage. Thus, the behaviour of western disturbances in these months needs to be closely followed.  

Summer season thunderstorms

Here, summer refers to the months of March, April and May. In India, the transition from winter to summer takes places in March and that is why, this month is a bit unstable in terms of weather. The weather in these months is very vital for agriculture as Rabi crops mature and are harvested around this period. So, any widespread rainfall or hailstorm event damages these crops as well as horticulture. That is why, the best way to safeguard these crops would be effective implementation of the crop insurance scheme and making sure all varieties of crops (including horticulture) come under it. Farmers must keep harvested crops in dry places without waiting for any advisories. 

Since the past few years, India is witnessing multiple days of severe thunderstorms (including hailstorms) in these months. The hailstorm event of 2014 and "unseasonal" rain event of 2015 significantly impacted India's agriculture which broke the backbone of the farmers. Increased interference of western disturbance was the main reason behind these severe weather events. Thus, any such event in 2016 will prove to be catastrophic, especially in those areas where agriculture distress is at its peak. But if such thunderstorms occur in drought-hit villages such as those of Maharashtra or Madhya Pradesh, the associated rain would bring temporary relief. Under a strong thunderstorm season, effects of ongoing drought could also reduce. 

Not to forget, these thunderstorms, along with associated lightning strikes, have been a major killer in India. They have killed more than 2,500 people in India in 2014. Hence, the behaviour of western disturbances and thunderstorms in March-May 2016 also needs to be closely followed. 

Temperatures and duration of summer season 

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IMAGE 3: Temperature anomalies during March-May 2014 and 2015. Yellow to red shades indicate warmer than normal temperatures whereas bluish shades indicate cooler than normal temperatures. 

Courtesy: NASA GISS

We know that 2014 is the warmest year (so far) recorded since 1880 but 2015 is likely going to take this position as per World Meteorological Organisation. "The global average surface temperature in 2015 is likely to be the warmest on record and to reach the symbolic and significant milestone of 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era. This is due to a combination of a strong El Niño and human-induced global warming" according to a release of World Meteorological Organization 

Despite some heatwaves and overall global heating, India didn't witness any significant heating in the March-May period of 2014 and 2015 as can be seen from above image. In fact, some cooling signs (white to light blue shade suggesting negative temperature anomalies) are visible in these periods, which are likely due to a plethora of clouds and rain. In any summer season, the skies need to remain clear for temperatures to increase but frequent clouding and rain episodes cause cooling and hence reduction of summer season. We may dislike the summer but proper heating of the Indian Subcontinent is vital for various ecosystems. It is believed that because of this summer heating, a low pressure establishes over Pakistan-North-West India which anchors the south-west monsoon winds. But, a milder summer season can be a boon for parched areas as lesser the temperatures, lesser will be the evaporation of water from water resources. Sustaining lives under such a scenario will be comparatively easy. 

Hence, in a background of global warming and devolving El Niño, temperature anomalies during 2016's summer will play a major role in India's weather. 

South-West and North-East Monsoon Season 

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IMAGE 4: Normal VS actual performance of South-West Monsoon of 2015. Red shading in right side image shows areas which have received very low monsoon rainfall. 

Courtesy: India Meteorological Department 

Undoubtedly, the South-West Monsoon of 2016 would be the most important and highly-followed weather event of 2016. This can be understood from the fact that it is many months away but guesswork on how it would be, has already started on the internet. Already, mixed reactions are coming from various people/agencies which usually start coming after April when the India Meteorological Department issues its first stage monsoon forecast. 

The key debate at present is on "El Niño or La Niña" during the next monsoon. Present estimates (of course all estimates are subjected to change) from Climate Prediction Centre of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest that El Niño conditions will persist till late spring or early summer of 2016 (i.e around June-July) following which, a transition will take place to neutral conditions (known as ENSO Neutral). El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists in two modes: El Niño (bad for monsoon) and La Niña (good for monsoon).  But, when both are absent (i.e Pacific Ocean has normal sea surface temperatures) then it is called ENSO neutral. 

The latest update of the second version of Climate Forecast System model (which is popularly used in ENSO forecasting) expects El Niño to continue through June-August 2016. The Bureau of Meteorology of Australia doesn't expect the end of El Niño to happen at least till autumn of 2016. Moreover, the present forecast of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) doesn't indicate any positive IOD event during next year's monsoon. A positive IOD tends to be favourable for monsoon. Thus, at present, there is a sort of disagreement between the models and agencies which will likely continue in the coming period given the mischievous nature of ENSO and IOD. 

So, if El Niño persists through the early monsoon of 2016, the million dollar question would be whether it will remain that strong to influence the monsoon. It is definitely going to be challenging for monsoon prediction models to give a precise forecast of India's monsoon in 2016. 

Amidst all this, we certainly know one thing, which is monsoon's intra-seasonal variability which affects the distribution of rain over space and time. The above image clearly shows monsoon rainfall variation. In 2015's monsoon, eastern Madhya Pradesh got very less rain as compared to the western part. An increase in extreme wet and dry spells of monsoon is very well documented in parts of India like Central India. So, authorities need to monitor such spells (particularly those occurring in sowing months like June) more carefully to avoid any 2015-like situation (in which sowing took place speedily but then, the rain disappeared). 

India badly needs a proper and well-distributed monsoon rainfall in 2016 but any irregularities will be capable of impacting the Kharif season and worsening of the drought scenario. Likewise, the North-East monsoon season will also be a thing to watch for South India. 

Tropical Cyclones 

2015's cyclone season for India was relatively quiet as compared to previous years. Excluding Cyclonic Storm Komen (July 26-August 2), no tropical cyclone hit the mainland of India. The most interesting thing was that this year, the Arabian Sea was more productive than the Bay of Bengal (the situation is usually reverse) and Komen was one of the few cyclones to have formed in the peak monsoon season. As a result of low cyclone activity in India, damage due to them has also been less. But, under a warming Indian Ocean scenario, it will be interesting to see how many cyclones form and where they head.