Tropical Storm Thane sends moisture towards Central India. Rainfall likely in some areas

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The former tropical cyclone Thane which made a landfall South of Cuddalore at around 0500hrs IST today with a pressure of 985mb created moisture band North of LLCC during its final journey. 

As seen from the above GFS 850mb map, the past cyclone Thane is the anti clockwise whirl at South India while to its North the moisture from Bay of Bengal which was influenced by the system is digging in Central India. 

A High Pressure region  at the Mid levels will be intensifying at North of Bay of Bengal just over West Bengal. This High pressure region will channelize the moisture to spread over Central India with the earlier Northerly winds turning Southernly from tomorrow onwards

As seen from this 72hr i.e of 1st Jan 2012 plot, a much of rainfall is being seen over East Central India especially around Nagpur. 

The rainfall shall be eminent in Madhya Pradesh,Northern Maharashtra on 31st Dec 2011,spreading over a large area on the first fay of New Year!

As a result of the favored moisture and destabilized atmosphere, Rainfall shall be expected in Nagpur on Saturday night period with Mostly Cloudy weather. There will be an upsurge in the min temp to 20C ( +8C) due to this. 

If the GFS is to be believed, the lifting mechanism shall be good on Sunday where some isolated thunderstorm is expected with some rainfall in the city!

Forecast for Nagpur- 

30/12- Mostly Cloudy with convection building

Min temp to be around 19C

31/12- Day shall begin with clear or light clouds but with the reach of convection temperature in afternoon,CB clouds will build and an isolated thunderstorm can be expected in or in the vicinity of Nagpur providing rains

1/1/2012- Expected to be overcast with light rains 

2/1/2012 - Decreasing cloud cover and possible light rains till early morning. Rest mostly cloudy weather

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

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Landfall of Tropical Storm Thane takes place South of Cuddalore

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE LANDFALL OF TROPICAL STORM (INTENSITY DOUBTED) HAS TAKEN PLACE AROUND 0600HRS IST TODAY SOUTH OF CUDDALORE. As seen from this DWR microwave imagery,the eyewall crossed exactly south of Cuddalore where the peak winds reported were around 115km/hr ! The winds are now expected to reverse as the half of the system has crossed

METD WEATHER HAS EXTENDED THE ALERT TOWARDS THE WEST AREAS OF THE PREVIOUSLY ALERTED REGION WHICH WILL BE NOTIFIED SHORTLY AT

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Dangerous Mistake made by Deccan Chronicle on Cyclone Thane

Well, it seems to be a non scientific post but I have pointed a dangerous mistake made by the newspaper Deccan Chronicle in their article on Cyclone Thane

The article can be seen here

Deccan Chronicle reports-

However, the storm surge is expected to be around 1 km in height and not cause much damage.


Well its a sure misguidance especially at a time of emergency like this. So people reading it please note that the correct line will be

However,the storm surge is expected to be around 1-1.5 m in height and not cause much damage

Akshay Deoras
METD WEATHER

CYCLONE THANE BATTERS TAMIL NADU COAST

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Cyclone Thane as being mentioned in today's posts is rapidly approaching the Tamil Nadu coast at a speed of over 11km/hr!


AS OF 0730PM IST,
THANE IS AT 81E,11.8N ABOUT 100KM SOUTH EAST OF CHENNAI

Rainfall associated with it already began in Chennai late yesterday with moderate winds!
As seen from the above IR-NHC spectrum imagery, it appears that the LLCC ( Low Level Cyclonic Circulation Center) is rapidly approaching towards the area between Puducherry and Cuddalore! 

The image on the right hand side is of the Doppler Radar Chennai of 1335UT i.e 0635PM IST which clearly shows the LLCC ( Noted as circular vortex South East of Chennai in the circle of Radius 100km!) is approaching Puducherry for a head on. The radar estimates that the landfall shall be sometime tomorrow ( 30th Dec 2011) morning around 0530hrs IST


Cyclone Thane has been a Cat 1 Cyclone during the landfall which was a bit expected as it didn't had that much space where it could get weak. It shall now start weakening as it is losing the Sea surface contact. 






METD WEATHER HAS ISSUED A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS FOR 
METD WEATHER PDS AND MARK 5 ALERT FOR THE BELOW AREAS VALID TILL 1900hrs,30th Dec 2011 

Chennai,Mamallapuram,Pondicherry,Chidambaram,Kanchipuram,Neyveli,Cuddalore,KARAIKAL,NAGAPATTINAM,THANJAVUR,TIRUCHCHIRAPALLI AND SURROUNDINGS

RIGHT- 
This is a classical example of Doppler Effect with a Tropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere. 
A cyclone due to coriolis force of earth's rotation rotates ANTICLOCKWISE in Northern Hemisphere. Thus the winds in the Northern half of center are anticlockwise i.e during such landfall from East the winds move towards the land( DENOTED BY BLUE COLOR IN THE IMAGE) and in the Southern Half ( RED COLOR) means winds are moving away!
























Thus PEOPLE ARE BEING INFORMED TO STAY AWAY FROM DAMAGES ESP FROM HIGH WINDS,RAINS AND STORM SURGES


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Eyewall of Tropical Cyclone BOB D1(Thane) 150km SE of Chennai

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE LANDFALL PROCESS OF CYCLONE THANE HAS BEGUN FEW HOURS AGO RESULTING IN RAIN AND STRONG WINDS IN CHENNAI.HOWEVER THE EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR TO PUDUCHCHERRY IN PONDICHERRY TONIGHT.AS A RESULT VERY HEAVY RAINS,WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALSO

MAJOR FLOODING ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STORM SURGE
THE ATTACHED IMAGE IS OF THE DOPPLER RADAR OF CHENNAI WHERE THE EYEWALL CAN BE SEEN AS A CIRCLE AROUND 150KM SE OF CHENNAI...

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TS Thane is now a Category 1

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
Severe Weather Forecaster

Well, Category 1 Cyclone BOB D1 ( Thane) definitely intensified a bit in the last 12hrs unlike expected by METD WEATHER but since it was near the transition of Cat 1 from Tropical Storm on Saffir Simpson scale the strengthening isn't that significant

Right now the system has really gained tremendous convection momentum

The next post shall be on 29th Dec 2011 morning till then METD WEATHER EXPECTS THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ATLEAST A BIT

ALERTS- 

METD WEATHER ISSUES A PDS AND MARK 5 ALERT FOR THE REGION ABOVE MENTIONED IN RED AND BLUE..


ALERT HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND EXPIRES 0800HRS IST,1ST JAN 2012

Tropical Cyclone BOB D1 (Thane) in the final stages of intensification,Expected to weaken now

METD WEATHER 

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The much anticipated and quasi-stationary cyclone BOB D1 ( Thane) as expected is in the very FINAL STAGE of intensification. 

The Microwave imagery coupled with the PW spectrum imagery shows a phenomenal decrease in the available moisture around the system clearly depicting and confirmed by JTWC that Thane has exited its "Intensification Region" where there was ample of moisture to sustain robust convection!

Further the system has entered a region of much cooler SST of the order of 26-27C as against the past HIGH SST. 

The above imagery from NRL of the Brightness temp indicates the system's environment is much colder than previous and brighter convection is ongoing in the South Eastern periphery of the LLCC. 

A confirmation to the decrease in the moisture environment is depicted below from two images of 27th Dec and 28th Dec respective order. There has been a classic decrease in the PW.

The LLCC also has shrunk today unlike the broad nature of yesterday given the lacking low level convergence. Robust convection continues in the LLCC given the Poleward Outflow of 20kt. 

The overall symmetry of TS Thane indicates a peak convection cloud top temp of -70C at the LLCC aloft,two outflow channels have also developed at the North East and South Western periphery of the system… 

The banding feature also has weakened around the system!

Forecast ( Valid +12hrs 0600GMT,28th Dec)

The system is expected to WEAKEN henceforth considering the cut off from abundant moisture field,encountering cooler SST and lack of lower convergence. A marginal possibility ( IMD) of further intensification in the next 12hrs which METD WEATHER rules out. 

The system is expected to cross the Indian coast near Chennai on 29th Dec 2011 late period! 

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

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