TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

NOW SUPERCELLS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF 2000J/KG MLCAPE IN NE AND CENTRAL LA AND SRN MISSISSIPPI

60% RISK OF TORNADOES AND 40% RISK OF EF2+ TORNADOES AS PER SPC....

PEOPLE IN THIS AREA MUST REMAIN ALERT!

Major Tornado event unfurling in Missouri and Illinois!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

TOP PHOTO-

THE TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE TOWN OF CINCINNATI

CONDITIONS WERE/ARE SIMILAR TO A MODERATE RISK TYPE SETUP

An Insane trough of 140kt is digging in South Central states of USA bringing tremendous risk of Severe Weather with tornadoes widely in Missouri and Illinois.

The threat began when the perfectly destabilized atmosphere over North Eastern Oklahoma-Arkansas border produced supercells in the 2000J/Kg CAPE,Dewpoints upto 55- 60F and blend of low level shears for rotations.

***The tornado in Cincinnati in Arkansas was the killer tornado with unconfirmed reports of around 4 fatalities killing an old couple aged 88 and 78 years old,another old man aged 78 who was a dairy farmer who was milking the cows in the morning***

Reaching an area of Low level jets nearing to 50kt and classic shears,

The Squall line thunderstorm dropped more tornadoes over Robertsville,MO,BYRNES Mill,MO , Sunset Hills also where the tornado caused damage to houses and business.

Recent Tornado 2SW of Petersburg,IL has uprooted large trees and roof tops also!

Weather alerts are being issued on the the blog at the top and the related warning also

( Attached image ( top one) is of the rainwrapped tornado as seen on radar 4 miles NW of Waterloo around 1800hrs GMT

Latest warnings at

www.spc.noaa.gov

SNOWFALL IN INDIA FINALLY!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As per the forecast text and alerted graphic, HEAVY snowfall was reported at multiple places in India especially Kashmir valley and Himachal Pradesh

As per the data recorded

QAZIGUND IN J&K RECORDED A SNOWFALL OF 80CM

SRINAGAR RECORDED A SNOWFALL OF 30CM

GULMARG RECORDED SNOWFALL OF 44CM

PAHALGAM - 40CM

Entire Valley was cut off as flight cancellations were there and the Jammu-Srinagar highway was also non operative due to heavy snowfall

I am not in a mood of writing more on these datas as these pictures ( COURTESY- NDTV) Are really beautiful.

Severe Weather conditions likely in North India on Thursday(30th Dec 2010)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Anticipated Western Disturbance currently forming over a wide area NW of Pakistan

is soon expected to bring lots of Severe Weather over North India starting from 29th Dec 2010

Very Heavy snowfall is expected from 29th Dec 2010 till 31st Dec 2010 over a wide area in Jammu and Kashmir in entire Kashmir valley i.e Sonmarg,Gulmarg,Pahalgam,Zojila pass Stretching to Drass,Kargil

Less intensity snowfall in Ladakh also

* ENTIRE HIGHER REACHES OF HIMACHAL PRADESH like Manali,Rohtang,Kyelong,Baralacha pass other higher passes also

Shimla might get some snowflakes but chance of rains is higher than snowfall as Temperatures in Shimla are still above freezing point!

CONSIDERING SUCH DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH, METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK II ALERT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 1000HRS,29TH DEC 2010 TILL 2300HRS,31ST DEC 2010

HEAVY RAINFALL,HAILS,THUNDERSTOR

As all ingredients are coming in place over Northern Plains ( Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh), very heavy rainfall is likely in these areas.Light rains will begin from evening to night period on 29th Dec 2010 but rainfall will be heavy on 30th Dec 2010

A strong Thunderstorm also expected with chance of HAILS ALSO in these regions as a perfect destabilized atmosphere is in forecast on 30th dec 2010 due to strong low level,mid level vortex system,CAPE and a blend of moisture to support intense convection.

Lightning also possible in these areas so PEOPLE IN PUNJAB,HARYANA,CHANDIGARH MUST TAKE CARE

AND TO THOSE NEAR HILLS ( SITUATED ON SLOPES ESP IN HIMACHAL PRADESH LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR ) PEOPLE MUST WATCHOUT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAINS.

CENTRAL INDIA

Increase in cloud cover with chance of rains is possible in Central India( esp around Vidarbha,Nagpur) from 30th Dec late period and on 31ST DEC 2010 when chance of rainfall persists in Nagpur

( Check FACEBOOK page of METD WEATHER for more details)

So Its going to be SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR IN NORTH INDIA

Extreme Fog in Delhi causing chaos!

(ABOVE- Flight landing at IGI airport Delhi is covered by FOG)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Past 48 hr ( 25th,26th Dec) maximum temperature in New Delhi has been below 20C with maximum temperature recorded on 25th Dec at 16C from 1430hrs to 1630hrs and 17C today at 3PM

Dense,Light for has been there in New Delhi continuously since last 48hrs with very moist air

Min humidity ( Relative) around 70% and max as high as 100%.

Visibility has been widely affected at the New Delhi International airport with extreme flight delays and cancellations

AS PER REPORTS FROM 9PM YESTERDAY TO 12PM TODAY, 50 FLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AND MANY DELAYED.

RAILWAY TIME TABLE ALSO AFFECTED WITH MANY TRAINS DELAYED DUE TO DENSE FOG IN NEW DELHI.

Minimum temperature today was 7C in the capital

Forecast-

FOG WILL CONTINUE for next 24hrs atleast in New Delhi

Northern India LOWS

As Delhi settled at minimum of 7C,

Min.temp recorded on 26th Dec 2010

Shimla at 3.1C

Amritsar at 2.5C

Ludhiana and Bathinda at 4.2C

Patiala at 4.5C

Pathankot at 4.6C

Haryana-

Narnaul at 3.1C

Ambala at 4C

Karnal at 5.4C

Rohtak at 6.1C

Hisar at 6.7C

FORECAST-

HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE REGION ON 29TH NIGHT AND 30TH DEC!

J&K

Leh at -12.6C ( IT WAS -16.4C THE PREVIOUS NIGHT)

KARGIL AT -10C

SRINAGAR-2.1C

PAHALGAM-5.2C

GULMARG-5.8C

FOG IN SRINAGAR ALSO

FORECAST-

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN J&K ON 29TH DEC AND 30TH DEC.

EXPECTED AMOUNT IS MORE TOWARDS KASHMIR VALLEY THAN LADAKH

First SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN INDIA BY 30TH DEC 2010

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Snowfall of the year is in range now for J&K,Himachal Pradesh and higher reaches as a Western Disturbance will bring plenty of rain and snowfall in this region on 29th,30th Dec 2010 (WED-THU).

All ingredients will be coming together between Europe and Asia from Saturday as a large scale mid level trough forms with negative vorticity from the low pressure pulse from Mediterranean sea - typical Western Disturbance.

FORECAST

From Saturday, band of low pressure will initiate over North of Iran at the upper level first. ( SEE LAST IMAGE OR FIRST FROM BOTTOM SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE INITIATING NORTH EAST OF J&K AS SEEN FROM CONCENTRIC CIRCLES IN THE UNSHADED VAST AREA)

As conditions come together for intensification of the low at mid and aloft, A trough will form as air cols down more and more due to lifting process and resulting into a dense parcel of air noted at the 300mb,850mb,500mb plots(SEE FIRST IMAGE FROM TOP) as regions with lower potential heights ( In Northern Hemisphere) For this system, the 500 mb height shall be around 564mb out of 570mb in the same longitude zone.

Amplification of trough will continue resulting in the formation of a well marked Western Disturbance landing at the North India region by 29th Dec 2010 (WED). (SEE SECOND IMAGE FROM TOP. SHAPE SIMILAR TO A TROUGH AT 500MB)

Rainfall in plain regions and SNOWFALL IN HILLY REGIONS LIKE ( SEE THIRD IMAGE FROM TOP)

KASHMIR VALLEY,SRINAGAR CITY,KARGIL DIST,LADAKH AND ENTIRE NORTHERN JAMMU AND KASHMIR WILL RECEIVE GOOD SNOWFALL AND HEAVY AS PER THE PRESENT FORECAST.

THIS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SNOWFALL THAT THESE AREAS GET DURING WINTER

IN HIMACHAL PRADESH ALSO,SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN ON Wednesday LATER PERIOD ,THURSDAY ( DURATION APPLIES TO J&K ALSO)

SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORM IN PLAINS

NORTHERN PLAINS LIKE PUNJAB,HARYANA,DELHI AND OTHER PLACES WILL GET RAINFALL MOSTLY FROM 29TH DEC LATE PERIOD AND ON 30 TH DEC 2010. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS THEY AIR AS THE AIR AT 850MB DOESN'T SHOW ANY MOISTURE HOLDING CAPACITY ( MEANING DRYNESS IN AIR.

Snowfall likely in Ladakh and Kashmir valley on Thursday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A possible Western Disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmir from today late period to Thursday mainly and some period on Friday

the GFS weather models are indicating that a western disturbance or extratropical cyclone( low pressures) originating in the Mediterranean sea which are carried by Jet streams will cause precipitation in the form of Snow in much of J&K

The Snow-Rain line indicator of the 850mb map is slipping southwards covering areas around Kargil Valley,Kashmir valley and some areas around Leh and NE of J&K

Snowfall is likely on Thursday in areas prominently Gulmarg,Sonamarg,Pahalgam,Kargil,Dras,

and Leh area.So KASHMIR VALLEY WILL BE GETTING SOME SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY INTENSE COLD IN THE REGION

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS POST, A SPECIAL FREEZE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR J&K AS TEMP ARE EXPECTED TO BE -6 TO -8C IN SRINAGAR AND UPTO -21C IN LADAKH ESP LEH

** SNOWFALL ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGHER REACHES OF J&K and POSSIBLE TRACE AMOUNT IN SRINAGAR CITY. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN SRINAGAR