Rains begin due to the low pressure in India

ABOVE- TOP IMAGE IS THE GFS 850MB VALID TILL 12Z,SATURDAY.. YOU CAN NOTICE THE ANTI CIRCULAR SPIN IS THE LOW PRESSURE

BOTTOM IMAGE IS OF 12PM,SAT-12PM SUN.. YOU CAN NOTICE HOW SUDDEN MOISTURE INCREASE OR INCURSION WILL HAPPEN DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DISAPPEARING

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster,

Widespread rainfall has been reported across Northern Maharashtra and parts of Central MP due to the presence of a well marked low pressure area resting over East Madhya Pradesh.

As a result of the first day in interior of India, this low pressure couldn't pull enough moisture resulting in less rains and I bet less rain rate over Northern Maharashtra and MP

Pachmarhi, MP received rainfall accumulating to 40mm which infact lies close to the featured low.

As considered for Akola,MH rainfall reported is near 30mm with a poor show of 12mm in Nagpur as recorded at 10PM

Rainfall amounts and rain rate will surely be on a rise on Saturday as the low pressure is expected to move SW from the current position and with some very rich moisture contents being seen in the 850mb offshore Western coast, this low will significantly pull the moisture thereby increasing the quantum and rain rate..

Depending upon the calculated forecast, I BET for some heavy rains in Nagpur and Northern Maharashtra also in central maharashtra.

5 DAY FORECAST-

NAGPUR-

RAINS WILL BE ON INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN NAGPUR

OVERNIGHT SLIGHT RAINS FROM FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN RATE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD....

RAINS WILL BE ON A DECREASE FROM MONDAY

NORTHERN MAHARASHTRA TO CENTRAL MADHYA PRADESH

HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE

VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND IN NAGPUR AND CENTRAL INDIA

WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVER CENTRAL INDIA WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998MB ONLY... SOME GOOD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN NAGPUR AND OTHER PARTS OF NORTHERN MAHARASHTRA

THE PRESSURE IS NOT THAT STRONG AS WAS EXPECTED SO ONLY IF IT DEEPENS MORE, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...

FRIDAY NIGHT- NAGPUR CITY WILL WITNESS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING ENOUGH TO FORCE TO REMOVE ELECTRIC CONNECTIONS FOR SAFETY

WHILE ITS ALREADY RAINING HEAVILY IN CENTRAL MAHARASHTRA

SATURDAY THE NGP CITY WILL ALSO WITNESS GOOD RAINFALL IF LOW REMAINS STRONG.. I WILL UPDATE ON IT LATER THIS NIGHT AS SOON AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS COME

Low pressure forms on Andhra Pradesh coast

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

The most anticipated Low pressure finally formed in the given 24hr range!! Though this low pressure is very deep,I can say deeper than expected due to formation over the coast which had better atmospheric conditions than what I previously explained.. The location is shifted and the low having a surprising minimal pressure of 994mb centers AP coast

This low pressure is expected to deepen slightly more

As a result, Entire maharashtra particularly northern parts will get good rainfall

I will make a detail update tomorrow

A low pressure area will form in the BOB in next 24hrs

IMAGE-

1] UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE OF UAD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM SLIGHTLY TO SW OF MAX. UAD. SO THIS STORM MIGHT NOT RELEASE SUFFICIENT LATENT HEAT FOR STRENGTHNING

BOTTOM-

THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF LLC IN BOB

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

A widespread unorganized area of convection has formed offshore Karnataka as being depicted by Cloud top temperatures of -60C and the GFS weather models. Since the area is a widespread due to absence of development of a surface low to organize convection, a solid Vorticity is developing around this convection area and given the 15kt lower convergence and organised 20kt upper air divergence feature, this widespread convection will soon organize to an organised area having a LLC or Low level circulation embeded in it in the next 24hrs...

With an expected North-Northwestward propogation, this surface low is not expected to get converted to a significant depression having a central pressure of 995mb or less. The 1000mb Surface pressure models are indicating this feature to have a central pressure of 998mb in next 24hrs but with the northerly movement it might not deepen to a 995mb depression as had happened early this week over central India.

Naturally, this surface low also is expected to help the focus and intensity of SW monsoon winds towards central India and also to pump moisture on the way.. The forecasted path for this low is a path over Central India reaching Central India by the coming Monday,near 2nd August.

As a result, Central India will get good rains by this weekend marking an INCREASE IN RATE of rainfall also..

The intensity of this Surface low or I w'd say a short depression is likely to get affected by the persisting wind shears ranging form 20kt to as max as 40kt just North of the banding feature of this depression. So that will be a short intensified but long lived depression

WEATHER FORECASTS FOR NAGPUR

VALID FOR NEXT 5 days

With the absence of good low level moisture, NGP will receive just a spell of slight showers everyday from Wednesday mostly during afternoon period

Increase in rainfall activity by the end of this weekend

FOR CENTRAL INDIA

More or less similar weather upto this weekend but increase in rainfall at this weekend

Surface Low pressure sweeps away! New might form soon

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster

The 48hr toll- From 00z Sunday till Monday

Madhya Pradesh

Damoh-25.4cm

Jabalpur-16cm

Eastern Maharashtra-

Wardha 65mm

Amravti-4.8

Gondia-4.7

Nagpur- 4.2mm** To be verified

FORECAST FOR NAGPUR OF TUESDAY AND WED

TUE-- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH WARMER AFTERNOON PERIOD

CHANCE OF RAINS DURING THE DAY IS VERY LESS WITH A SPELL OF SLIGHT RAINS TOWARDS NIGHT

WED- WARMER DAY THAN TUE AND NO RAIN

FORECAST FOR EASTERN MAHARASHTRA

DECREASE IN RAINS AND WARMER DAYS

FOR NORTH INDIA-

THERE WILL BE RAINS ON TUESDAY IN NEW DELHI,PUNJAB,HARYANA JK ETC

With the surface low centered over Northern Gujarat as being indicated by the GFS models of 12z,26th July, Central India including Nagpur city has got good amount of rains in the past 48hrs as were expected. The low pressure is expected to travel across Arabian into Gulf countries

With absolutely no significant surface low pressure is expected to build in bay of bengal in the the next few days, dry air is expected to move from SE of India towards NW mainly to settle across South Central India first and then in central Maharashtra,Madhya Pradesh causing a dry air at the crucial 850mb and mid atmospheric levels.This relatively dry air at lower levels will restrict the rainfall in Central and Eastern Maharashtra and also in the South Central India in the coming 2-3 days resulting in warm day with surface moisture or humidity dominant...

On 28th July, GFS is indicating another low pressure area formation offshore Tamil Nadu which is expected to have a 1000mb initial pressure and move West-Northwest wards causing some rains in the same south Central India and parts like Nagpur city

Although this low pressure is not expected to create a miracle which the present did by pumping moisture over Central India and causing good rains, but will be a good for rains

I bet for the decrease in rains till next 3 days due to absence of moisture in Maharashtra but the coasts western part will be getting rains

Good rains reported from Central India after that surface low swept across

A very good rainfall has been measured all across central India with chief amounts in Gadchiroli,Vidarbha apx 131.2mm and 100.2mm in Jabalpur.Where as the regional IMD center recorded near 23mm rains, rains recorded at METD WEATHER,HQ were apx 38mm which has added a good score to July month's lists which is on a 60% deficient for Nagpur.Four gates each of Pujaritola and Kalisarar dams were opened. Uncleaned drains led to water logging in several parts of the city.

Some rains expected in Morning hours in Nagpur

ABOVE- JUST EAST OF MAHARASHTRA STATE THOSE CIRCULAR CLOUDS ARE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CLOUDS... SINCE TRACK IS WESWARDS, SOME RAINS FOR NAGPUR ON THE WAY AND ALSO FOR NORTHERN MAHARASHTRA
METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster

** LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS VIDARBHA AND OTHER NORTHERN DISTRICTS OF MAHARASHTRA

** MORE HEAVY TO MODERATE RAINS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF NAGPUR

** NAGPUR CITY WILL RECEIVE LIGHT SHOWERS AND MODERATE AT TIMES DURING EARLY MORNING

With the West-North westward track of the newly formed low pressure zone in Bay of bengal which is currently resting near Raipur causing a 14mm rainfall as against a giant rainfall depicted by the GFS, some rains are being expected in the city in morning hours.

The Low pressure which is organizing convective clouds of -60C cloud tops to the East of maharashtra is likely to trigger rains as its precipitable core arrives over mainland.

With the last low pressure which had arrived and swept across city causing absolutely NO rains but heavy rains near by, this system is expected to do the same thing and will be a more problem to rural areas instead of Nagpur city. The reason for such a chaotic relation between atmospheric conditions as against the forecasted one seems to be a dominant international aspects like a Upsurge of positive IOD from the negative phase and less SW monsoon winds flow.

I bet the forecast models will have a better performance in the peak August and September when La Nina and Positive IOD will be sufficient to cause active monsoon

Forecast for 25th july 2010,Sunday

With the low pressure tracking West-northwest wards,GFS 12z indicating this convection will reach the peak of maximization of low pressure by the midnight of 24th and move with the moving winds towards Vidarbha and other Northern districts of Maharashtra causing light to moderate rains... At few ISOLATED places the rains will be very heavy and likely cause problems such as water logging

For Nagpur city,

Light rains all the way with one or two spell of slight moderate rains towards early morning is expected.Overall cloudy condition with a cool day. Less chance of rains after AFTERNOON

The rain rate is dependent on amount of moisture associated with this low pressure and also its intensity but considering its performance in eastern states, I don't expect severe rains as being depicted by GFS

Forecast for Monday,26th July

No such significant weather