VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS TO LASH NAGPUR CITY

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER-

0100hrs,1st July 2010

A MARK II ALERT MEANS THAT THE WEATHER CAN BE HAZARDOUS AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

MARK II ALERT BEGINS FROM 1200HRS,1ST JULY AND WILL CONTINUE TILL 3RD JULY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINS WILL BE OUT IN TODAY'S EVENING SO BE SURE TO CARRY UMBRELLAS WITH YOU AND REMEMBER TO SWITCH OFF AND REMOVE ELECTRIC CONNECTIONS DUE TO LIGHTNING. 

* VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL HIT ON FRIDAY EVENING

* PLEASE KEEP AN UMBRELLA IN EVENING HRS FOR THIS TIME

Concerning- a MARK 2 alert as per SWR <severe Weather risk scale> of METD WEATHER in Nagpur

A strong low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal apx 100km to the East of Tamil Nadu. This low pressure has formed in the lower levels of 850mb and has the anti-cyclonic spic in the mid 500mb level also. Strong convection is taking place in this zone resulting in intense cloud tops both in height and temp which now will be controlled by the 300mb Jet streams. These jets will push this Low level circulation or low pressure inwards to the NE of Maharashtra. This low pressure will pull in the SW monsoon winds which currently are scattered towards it resulting in a very good moisture incursion inwards in Maharashtra and Eastern parts of the country.

As per GFS upto 2nd July, This low pressure which will be a LLC<low level circulation> will be present few hundred kilometers to the South of Kolkata and will influence the Low level jets. 

This all will bring Heavy to Very heavy rains in Nagpur city,Raipur and the districts near to Nagpur in the limit of  200kms away

Rains will be heavy and more drops/minute. First spells will be on 1st July,Thursday in late afternoon to evening hours in the range 4-6PM. They will continue till all the night. They will amount near about 60mm+

On Friday, More rains will be there and timings will be out soon. It will also rain on Saturday

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Hurricane Alex to make a landfall tonight at Mexico coast

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH

 OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH

 OF THE RIO GRANDE

 * THE COAST OF MEXICO 

FROM THE MOUTH OF

 THE RIO GRANDE TO 

LA CRUZ 

 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

 IN IN EFFECT FOR...

 * THE COAST OF TEXAS 

FROM BAFFIN BAY TO 

PORT OCONNOR 

* THE COAST OF MEXICO

 SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO 

CABO ROJO

The first Hurricane of the Atlantic season Hurricane Alex is on its way to make a landfall around SAN FERNANDO in Mexico. This landfall will be along the coast of Mexico to the West of San Fernando and to the South of Matamoros,Mexico by THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. The Rainfall bands are now hiting this area and HEAVY RAINS is being reported from Local weather stations with a high winds gusts...

The Location of Hurricane ALEX as analysed on 100CDT,30th June was--

24.4N,96.2W which is

175KM ENE OF LA PESCA,MEXICO

210KM,SSE OF BROWNSVILLE,TEXAS,USA

THE MAX WINDS ARE 135KM/HR

AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962MB.IT IS MOVING 320DEG OR NW DIR AT 18KM/HR..

ALEX IS APX 151.69 KM FROM EASTERN SHORE OF MEXICO...

THE RAINFALL BANDS ARE NOW CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN MEXICO AREA.

THE EYEWALL WILL ARRIVE IN THIS AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 9-12am LT. BUT HURRICANE FORCED WINDS AND STORM SURGES WILL BE EMINENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 4" ACCUMULATION AS ALEX HEADS..

FORECAST MODELS---

THE RUC,GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SST DATA THAT ALEX WILL INTENSIFY TODAY TO CAT. 2 HURRICANE. ALEX WILL GET GOOD MOISTURE AND WARM WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO INTENSIFY AMIDST LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD OUTFLOW AND LACK OF STRONG AGAINST COOL WINDS TO PUMP COOL AIR IN IT.

ALL MODELS AGREE WITH 6-12" RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND HURRICANE LANDFALL AREAS NEAR SAN FERNANDO. HIGH WINDS of 70km/hr+ are likely with more gusts and Storm surges upto 6FT

ALEX WILL MOVE intensify today evening to CAT. 2 with expected 98mph winds.

LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BY NIGHT HOURS IN 9-12PM LT WITH EYEWALL PASSING THE SAME TIME AND I EXPECT THE LANDFALL WITH A CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 1 ON THE BORDER OF 1 AND 2 ON SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.

TORNADO WATCHES AND FLOODING POTENTIALS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORNADOES at the SE TEXAS mostly at TEXAS-NM coastaline border. Flooding is likely to happen after landfall.

What is causing Monsoon to wait!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The South-West Monsoon has totally halted and no new monsoon current has been recorded in India. So far, What I have concluded is that the direction of SW Monsoon winds is more pointing towards western coasts of India and that flow is not very strong to cause heavy rains or rains in Delhi and northern states. Cyclone Phet which was a Severe Cyclonic storm of Cat. 4 which had formed in Arabian sea has caused a very heavy rains in open waters of Arabian sea and along the western coast, With absolutely no Fresh low pressure or cyclone getting created in the bay

of bengal, the monsoon winds are not regulated as they do in every June

Reasons for Monsoon failure!

1. Cyclone Phet

Cyclone phet has affected the monsoon. Phet had formed within the monsoon trough and marched Westwards towards Oman first and then towards Pakistan. This path had consumed the moisture in arabian sea which is pushed by monsoon winds as flow of winds becomes SW. From the Weather models of 850mb and surface winds, its clear that all the moisture in India points towards North and remains at Western Coast and doesn't move inwards due to

Winds surging from South instead of SW.

Cyclone Phet has caused heaviest rains in open waters of Arabian sea more than 600mm.

Phet is still causing more rains in sea than on land

RIGHT- NASA TRMM SATELLITE SEES RAINFALL IN OPEN WATERS OF ARABIAN SEA. THIS IMAGE IS A COLLECTION FROM MAY 31 TILL JUNE 6 WHICH WAS PHET'S LIFE DURATION.

2.Monsoon winds

AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS CREATED IN NORTHERN PLAINS, The winds at lower levels flow in a more northerly pattern than westerly pattern. This is preventing Eastern Maharashtra and Eastern states from receiving the monsoon

3. WEAK MJO AND NEGATIVE IOD

The third main reason for Weak monsoon is Weak MJO and Negative IOD

Madden Jullian Osscilation is a patch of rainfall anomaly travelling from East to West. The MJO negative phase means more rains than usual and positive means less rains than usual. The MJO current forecast see here is showing a positive cell near India which means relatively less rains then normal

II. Indian Ocean Dipole is a phenomena similar to El Nino and La Nina but happening in the pool of Indian Ocean. IOD has dipped to -0.8 in June and is expected to be in a negative phase until July end to July mid. When IOD is positive, it means comparitively warm water is present with more rains in Western Indian Ocean than in Eastern Indian ocean.

Historic Forecasts for IOD see here clearly shows a negative DMI in 2009 and it was a deficient rainfall in 2009. DMI however will rise by August and causing a normal August rainfall for 2010....

4. No Formation of significant low pressure in Bay of Bengal

Once cyclone Laila had formed in BOB which was weaker than Phet. Absence of Low pressure in BOB means no direction of Monsoon winds towards Interior India. If a strong low pressure happens in BOB and if it moves towards Kolkata, then monsoon winds will be steered to Interior India instead of coastal west..

So far, there is no chance of such formation as MJO tends positive and forecasts for MJO not showing any signs.Also broad convection happening in BOB....

Based on all this analysis, Monsoon is delayed by apx. 7 days and in some area by 10 days.

Its a summer condition in Northern India and also in Vidarbha area...

New dates of monsoon onset will be announced in the next post

DELAY! DELAY! DELAY!

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS,

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

The SW monsoon in 2010 hasn't been that good as In most of the country, Monsoon is running late and behind the normal. In the last week, Monsoon marked good strength along the western coast particularly in Mumbai city area. Unfortunately SW Monsoon didn't progress towards Interior Maharashtra and also towards Northern plains.

The current pattern of Monsoon and amount of precipitation in Nagpur and surroundings have made it clear that few rains which had lashed in Nagpur some days back were Pre-Monsoon showers as had been predicted by METD WEATHER. Monsoon,unfortunately has failed to mark the 26th June 2010 target of METD WEATHER due to many reasons and now is likely for a delay.

AS per present situations, monsoon is running behind the schedule by a week almost. It hasn't advanced inwards in India and is just bountiful for Western Coast only. It looks like Monsoon is on a week delay.

NEW DATES-

Monsoon onset in Nagpur- 4th July 2010

Monsoon onset in Delhi- 7th July 2010 or LATE

For Jammu and Kashmir- 14th July 2010 or LATE

For July, DEFICIENT RAINFALL is eminent as being depicted by few models of Indian Ocean DIpole and MJO oscillations. I am revising a 70% rainfall this year and will be more in August and NOT SEPTEMBER AS PER IMD

Chance of Rainfall and Thunderstorm tonight in Nagpur

There is a good chance of rainfall with thunderstorm tonight,25th June
2010 in Nagpur. The Pre-Monsoon shower-3 will conclude today and
Monsoon is expected to hit tomorrow 26th June as per METD WEATHER.
The atmosphere is moderately moist increasing RH after evening and
allowing thunderstorm due to CAPE. Rainfall had happened the last time
I mailed all in Eastern Nagpur but not in Pratap
Nagar,Dharampeth,Civil Lines etc.
Tonight from 9PM, clouds will build in sky favouring for a
Thunderstorm which will force to remove Electric connections followed
by rainfall in the range 10-11PM tonight

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Chance of Rainfall with Thunderstorm today!

There is a high chance of thunderstorm with rainfall today. The GFS weather models are showing some convection will build across Eastern India and the upper winds will carry towards Nagpur from South East. High CAPE over 2500J/Kg which was distinguished by heavy thunderstorms on Sunday and yesterday night which led to lightning is possible tonight also. Rainfall also is possible with heavy rains at times. Lightning will begin by 7PM followed by Rains from 8PM onwards. Heavy rains will likely lash by 9PM and I will advice to remove Tv and other electrical connections due to lightning strikes

Rainfall- From 8PM

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Pre-Monsoon shower-1 is now over in Nagpur

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The first phase of Pre-Monsoon shower is now over in Nagpur. As per the datas recorded from headquarter total rainfall neared to 50mm in the last 3 days. For the coming days the weather will be dry and warm with less or no chance of rainfall happening. 

Next round of Pre-Monsoon showers will strike mostly on 24th with some convective rainfall happening in between which will be informed separately. Monsoon is all set to strike on 26th June 2010 in the city

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055