MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN USA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN PARTS OF MO-IL

VIA STORM PREDICTION CENTER, FORECAST DISCUSSION

SPC AC 301631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
VALLEY...WRN GREAT LAKES...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS...

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
AN MCS CURRENTLY OVER NCNTRL MO WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO NCNTRL IL
THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE MCS ACROSS SCNTRL
MO AND AR WILL RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S F. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...INITIATING NUMEROUS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WRN EDGE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ECNTRL MO SSWWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LINE OF STORMS IN NW MO WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND SE IA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WRN IL EARLY THIS EVENING. A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS MOVING INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 50 KT AT 850 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO A UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE STRONG LINEAR DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN IL SWD ACROSS ECNTRL MO
EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. A 45 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED FROM NRN IL SWWD ACROSS MOST OF ECNTRL
MO.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SERN MO AND AR...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK WHERE INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN NRN AR...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN
DISCRETE BUT THE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR SHOW SFC WINDS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS
COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
POSSIBLY VERY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS AR SWWD INTO NE TX WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST.

TIME VERIFICATION OF RAINFALL IN NAGPUR ON 30TH APRIL

METD WEATHER,INDIA

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

The latest guidance of 00zGFS is showing a weak chance of rainfall in Nagpur. It is showing some chance of little rain and at time can turn ENORMOUS with a thunderstorm at night. I have been misguided many times by these models. I will issue a POSTPONE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN

THE ALERT NOW BEGINS AT 8PM,FRIDAY

THE RAINFALL MIGHT OCCUR BY 9PM TODAY SO I GIVE A TIME SLOT--

RAIN TIME SLOT- 8:30-9:30PM. THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME ONLY. ITS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM AS NO CAPE IS AVAILABLE. 

I WILL DEFINATELY KEEP TRACKING THIS WEATHER. BE ALERT AFTER 6PM AND THE ALERT STARTS AT 8PM-12AM.

FOR 4-6PM TIME SLOT AN ALERT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED, THAT WILL BE EMAILED

I AM POSITIVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH RAINS MIGHT BE LESS CAN BE STRONG AS THE WEATHER MODELS ARE BOUNCY!

RAINFALL ALERT ISSUED FOR NAGPUR ON FRIDAY,30TH APRIL

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

Concerning- Rains and thunderstorm in Nagpur on Friday,30th April 2010

AS per 12z,GFS RUN AND FORECAST METEOGRAM-

All Models have agreed with rainfall in Nagpur on Friday with a chance of thunderstorm building over Nagpur into late night hours. 

METD WEATHER  has issued a RAINFALL ALERT as per designated schedule on 12:00AM,30th april 2010

THE ALERT BEGINS AT 4:30PM WITH FIRST WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. THE WIND ADVISORY MEANS A WEATHER CONDITION IN WHICH HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW AT ABOUT 4:30-5PM WINDS UPTO 25.2KM/HR WSW WINDS WHICH is more or less the same as were on THU at 06:10PM will EXIST. 

RAINS WILL START between 4:30-5:30PM and more likely by 5PM. <FINAL TIME WILL BE RE-VERIFIED VIA EMAILS AND SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES BY 11AM>

Thundershowers with lightning and thunder will start by 9pm. 

DISCUSSION-

The ample 40mm precipitable water in atmosphere over Nagpur as being indicated by the GFS models will lead to formation of clouds <more than as it will be not visible>

The rising warm air due to surface heating will eventually push the vapour to cool air of -5C at 550mb. Clouds which will be all in HUMID environment as air is saturated with vapour will release water<RAIN> by 5PM due to cool air blowing and colliding with warm air in clouds and creating rains at the intersection. This mostly happens and the cool blowing wind which I have mentioned of 25km/hr will do the work. The rains will turn to CONVECTIVE RAINS By 9PM when T.storm builds in LACK CAPE area and is expected to be poor. 

As it is poor thunderstorm it will release the HEAVIEST RAINFALL by 9-10pm which will continue with calm winds till midnight. After 12AM, Clouds will still be in SKY with another chance of rainfall on SAT by 9AM. THe good news is that, SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY SO FAR AFTER SUMMER HAS STARTED. THE MAXIMUM TEMP WILL BE AROUND 35C OR LESS AND MINIMUM OF 25C. THIS IS REALLY COOL TEMP AND ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HEALTH AS IT WILL BE 40C AND ABOVE ON SUNDAY!

METD WEATHER ISSUES THE FOLLOWING ALERTS

1] WIND ADVISORY FROM 4:30PM,FRIDAY TO 7:30PM,FRIDAY

2] RAINFALL ALERT FROM 4:30PM AND RAINS BY 5PM. THUNDERSTORM BY 9PM AND A VERY HEAVY RAIN. AVOID GOING OUT BETWEEN 9PM-11PM>

3] HEALTH ADVISORY STARTING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY

RAINFALL ALERT IN NAGPUR CITY ON FRIDAY,30TH APRIL

METD WEATHER,INDIA

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

Concerning- Moderate rainfall during afternoon and evening hours in Nagpur,30th april 2010

The most anticipated rainfall of this month and what has been a secret from mother nature is finally here. The traditionally known APRIL Showers finally will arrive on the last working day

Discussion- 

The existing moisture in the upper levels of atmosphere will increase and stretch to the layer of 700mb. Moisture aloft creates clouds and when moisture appears as low level moisture below the freezing line. it gives rains. I am expecting moderate rains tomorrow with the entire day record of rains about 7mm. This is sufficient to cool down things on the day and provide pleasant evenings and great joy for trackers like me. The rains will start approximately between 3PM-5pm. The exact time will be around 4PM with maximum occuring into sunset time. For me, I will not get a chance to see Planet Venus tomorrow

I also issue a WIND advisory as winds are expected to touch 25km/hr gusts. High humidity will likely trigger rains by 4pm.. Showers will be enjoyable as cloud cover is expected to be more than 90%. 

I will issue alert for rains from 3PM,30TH APRIL WITH MAXIMUM AROUND 5-6PM AND CLOSING DOWN TO 12AM,1ST MAY. 

A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING NIGHT HOUR

THE WEATHER MODELS IN INDIA ARE BOUNCY AND FLUCTUATING. AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN, A CONFIRMED EMAIL WILL BE SENT. 

CHANCE OF RAIN IS 30% WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAINS. 

PLEASE LOOK FOR EMAIL FROM MY SIDE ANYTIME TOMORROW MORNING OR TONIGHT LATE TIME WHICH WILL BE A CONFIRMATION NOTICE

ENJOY!

SLIGHT RISK OF Severe Storms across OK,KS,IA

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Possible small tornado outbreak on Thursday, 29th APRIL 2010

Severe Weather is possible tomorrow in parts from Southern OK to as far as Western IA. A very strong trough is digging in and setting over these areas creating massive upper atmospheric motion. Meanwhile at the surface level, strong low level jets or Nocturnal jets are expected to build over to 60kt at max over Upper KS and SRN IA.
The sufficient instability between 1500-2000J/Kg will favour for destabilisation and will make the updrafts pretty strong in a very good speed and directional shear. This storm will likely witenss impedement in convection due to cold air mass set or CAP. The CINH is pretty strong for KS-IA region and will likely created a CAP BUST till Afternoon and late evening. CAP is likely to move away due to forcing vertical air by night and will make storms nocturnal. REMEMBER NOCTURNAL TORNADOES AND STORM ARE DANGEROUS. THE oz NAM refers to maximum danger to KS and IA for tornadoes. Moisture seems to be fair and sufficient for convection. The 48hr digital FRONT forecast is indicating a TRI point or Frontal intersection in IA making it favourable for severe storms and tornado. For the next hours, the llj will strengthen to over 70kt in central KS to SE IA amidst a weak CAPE and helicities over 400 m2 s2 leading to HIGH EHI value. FLASH FLOODS IS POSSIBLE IN MID MS VALLEY REGION DUE TO COLLISION OF MOISTURE WITH MOVING WARM FRONT

FOR OK
Late THU to Friday, for OK area can be ACTIVE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 60kt at SFC, CAPE of 2000J/Kg,DEWPOINT to 60F will be favourable for convection in steep lapse rate.So it will be KS-IA first and then OK severe Storm possibility WITH TORNADO

TORNADOES are possible all the way and if I w;d have been a chaser a w'd have targeted EASTERN NE, WEST IA, and NORTHERN KS and targeted to set around NEBRASKA CITY,NE for the chase and then to OK
FRIDAY- One more time, AR-La and nearby areas will witness severe storms and another tornado outbreak possible

RADAR IMAGES OF STORM WHICH HIT YAZOO AREA AND SE OF JACKSON AT HATIESBURG

SATURDAY HAD BEEN EXTREMELY BAD FOR PEOPLE OF MISSISSIPPI. MANY TORNADOES WERE REPORTED AND CLASSIC HOOK ECHOS DEVELOPED TOO. I TOOK SOME SCREENSHOTS OF RADAR IN AREAS OF HATIESBURG NEAR MS-AL BORDER AND YAZOO CITY AREA WHICH IS THE WORST HIT NOW WITH 3 PEOPLE DEAD AND LOTS OF DAMAGE

IMAGES-

1ST IMAGE IS YAZOO CITY RADAR

2ND IMAGE IS HATIESBURG AND 3RD ALSO THERE

Akshay 

""HIGH RISK"" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN USA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED
SPC AC 240557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN AR...NERN
LA...MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS E TX TO
CENTRAL/NRN LA...AL...WRN GA...TN...SRN/CENTRAL KY...EXTREME SERN
MO...CENTRAL/SRN/ERN AR....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK...FROM
GULF COAST OF SE TX TO FL PANHANDLE...TO PORTIONS WV/OH...TO
PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...TO E TX....

OUTBREAK OF NUMEROUS SVR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TODAY...GREATEST
CONCENTRATION/INTENSITY OF WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE STG-VIOLENT TORNADO
THREAT AFFECTING MID-SOUTH...MS DELTA REGION...AND TN VALLEY.

AT THE MID AND THE UPPER LEVELS, A SPLIT FLOW TYPE OF PATTERN IS SEEMING TO BE MOVING NORTHWARDS TOWARDS LA,AR,MS,AL AREAS. THERE WILL BE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETS ALOFT AND SORT OF CYCLONE INDUCED LLJ WILL FIRE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX MOVING TO THESE AREAS. WITH ALREADY HIGH CAPE TO INSTENSIFY THE UPDRAFTS AND EXTREMELY HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR, CONVECTION WILL BE TORNADOGENESIS VERY SOON AS THE 60KT LOW LEVEL JETS ARRIVE IN WARM AND MOIST PROFILE. IN THE MORNING HOUR PATTERN AS THE SETUP DRAGS NORTH, A DEFINED 15% RISK OF TORNADO LIES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AR,LA. AN EMBEDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY CREATING MORE FAVOURABLE WIND PROFILES DUE TO DEEP SHEARS IN THE O-1 KM FIELD, SUPERCELLS WILL EXPLODE OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS, MAINLY NEAR MS VALLEY AND ALBANIA REGION. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE PLENTY WITH SFS DEWPOINT LEADING TO 70F, CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH DUE TO CAPE AND MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT.

BY 08Z+08z RUC,
60KT LLJ WILL PROGRESS MORE INSIDE RAPIDLY BRINGING MOISTURE AND CAUSING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION. A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE IN WITH THE WARM FRONT INTERSECTING IT AT NORTHERN MS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTREME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOST FAVOURABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE WARM FRONT IS SETTING OVER NRN MS. WITH THE DRIVING COLD FRONT INTERSECTING IN 8HRS AND SO, TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND THE EHI VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 3.0 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

SPC HAS ISSUED WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAS UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK
DUE TO COOL AIR ALOFT, HAILS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SPC GIVING 15% RISK
STAY TUNED FOR ALERTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE EXTREME