SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL USA ON THURSDAY

Severe Weather in Central plains of USA by thursday.

The current 84 hr forecasts of GFS show potential for storms in the central plains of USA.

analysis

The pacific North-west trough is expected to shatter near central plains. This trough will show some spins widely over Kansas.

The 850mb wind shows a clear area of rotation around central USA including states from Oklahoma-North Dakota.

A key feature of Instability represented by cape will be present over Oklahoma which will be 2500J/kg.

Moisture content is good with dewpoints of 70F. Storm Prediction Center has issued SEVERE warning for thursday by covering areas from Arkansas to some parts of south Dakota.   

The weather will start to pick up moderate since wednesday only

stay tuned for updates. A good weather for thunderstorms...

Mostly at the hour it seems there will be squall lines..

METD 

Akshay

 

 

 

Slight Weather risk for sunday. Interesting Feature to dig in

Slight Threat On sunday in upper USA

 

The Cut of flow is expected to Join the Main Stream Across west-east USA.

The areas where the trough is expected to remain will be near the Lakes area in Usa

 

Ahead of this feature,Little Instability is present in the upper atmosphere which might generate some thunderstorms.SPC SAYS 15% risk in the lake area,

 

another Unique feature will be seen on sunday morning when the pacific north west trough will dig in the Central Plains of USA. the atlantic south-east trough is also expected to enter the east coasts of USA. A similar Trough setup of tornadoes is there but there is poor moisture and instablity in the atmosphere, so Less scope for tornadoes and some scope for thunderstorms around the lake area.

 

 

METD

Akshay

 

 

Thunderstorm Watch no 742

Squall Line cells at oklahoma East,Arkansas,Missourie

As forecasted weather of thunderstorms is currently hovering over Arkansas with some part in Oklahoma.

Total 66 reports have been received from SPC.

42 reports are about hails and the remaining 24 about high winds.

SPC has issued two thunderstorms Watches. 

the Squall line is currently over South East Oklahoma,north west Arkansas and south,south west Mississippi.

the speed of Squall line is about 25-30 knots.

SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for Severe Thunderstorms..

Stay tuned for updates. many Storm Chasers are chasing today

METD ALERT DEPARTMENT

Akshay

Show Begins

And the First Phase of the show begins

As seen in this Radar image from SPC,The Cells have Started to form in Topeka,Kansas.

current cells are Near Manhattan,Kansas.

The Trough is over state of Nebraska and all is moving like thought of!!

The chance of Weather Deterioration for Monday also there. SPC has reduced threat for Severe weather by Wednesday

METD

Akshay

Weather Deterioration less for Monday in Western us. Good in Ok,Kansas

Chance of Weather deterioration for monday quiet less in Western Usa

The North-west Pacific trough is expected to enter the North-Central Parts of USA Sunday night <usa time>

this trough has low chance of creating weather disturbances in the western parts as the cold fronts from the north will cover areas.

This will aggravate the Trough and when it will reach the central plains they are likely to get detached from the Main pacific trough.

The temperatures in the central USA for monday morning,monday night<us time> is Warm 60 F quiet favourable for storms

Ahead of this the chance of squall lines is more. A squall line is a line of severe thunderstorms that can form along and/or ahead of a cold front.

so Nebraska has good scope for weather severe.Circular motions of troughs is already approaching

Oklahoma East and kansas east have rising 0-1000m EHI's

tornado probability prevalent 

METD

Akshay

New Threats in the Atlantic

NHC has given three convective zones in the atlantic ocean.One of this convection has a medium chance of developing into a TD Over the next day and later into a tropical storm as it moves west-northwest.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED

 

The other two convective systems have a slight chance of development in the next 2 days

 

 

Stay Tuned

METD

Chance of Severe weather outbreak reduces

The current GFS 48hr shows that the pacific north-west trough will come to the central USA ON monday but instantly will get detached from its main source.

This will surely reduce the Weather Threat but Some threats for thunderstorms is prevalent.

There are rains and high winds likely with hails at proper updrafts. 

The GFS 300mb for monday shows circular rotation in the upper atmosphere which will move the trough in a circular manner

the areas will be the states to the west of oklahoma with powerful storms in texas,nebraska

Stay Tuned for updates

METD WEATHER

Akshay