Dust Storm hits India,continues in Pakistan

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

THE 500TH POST OF METD WEATHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Sandstorm also hit Jamnagar,Gujarat. Mr.Sagar Kinikar sends METD WEATHER the above photos which clearly show the suspended dust particles! The location of the photos are around Irwin Hospital,Jamnagar!

Flight taking off from Dubai airport as viewed yesterday
Courtesy- Gulf News


*** DUST STORM CONFIRMED IN GUJARAT,RAJASTHAN,NEW DELHI,PUNJAB,HARYANA EVEN IN SRINAGAR,INDIA


*** MANY AREAS IN NORTH INDIA WITNESSED BLOWING SAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS


After targeting Gulf countries, the dust storm entered today in India after impacting Pakistan yesterday.
Wide weather reports and observations from Rajkot,Ahmedabad,Jaipur,New Delhi,Amritsar,Ludhiana,Srinagar confirm conditions like " Widespread Dust" and "Blowing Sand" today. The visibility also dropped below 1km however no disruptions in air traffic were observed today

Conditions now-
Right now, I can't provide any satellite imagery as its night period in Asia which inhibits the Visibile spectrum. Nevertheless, check the wonderful photos sent by Mr. Sagar Kinikar from Jamnagar,Gujarat at the top

Gujarat continues to get BLOWING SAND as of 1030PM IST.VISIBILITY IS AROUND 1KM ON AVERAGE. 


EXTREME NORTHERN-WESTERN GUJARAT,SINDH REGION IS GETTING FOG DUE TO THE DUST





Above- MODIS image shows yellow areas in Sindh,North-Western Gujarat which are fog due to dust. 


*** WIDESPREAD DUST CONTINUES IN SINDH AREA
THE INTENSITY OF THE DUST HAS REDUCED JUST SOMETIME AGO BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL UNFAVORABLE FOR SINDH AREA. 


*** BLOWING SAND CONTINUES IN RAJASTHAN
JAIPUR STATION CONDITIONS ARE CLEARLY INDICATING LOW DRIFTING DUST PRESENT AS ON THR NIGHT TODAY. 


*** MILD DUSTY WEATHER CONTINUING IN PUNJAB,HARYANA NOW
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FORECAST (VALID 12HRS TILL 0730GMT,20TH MARCH 2012)


AS OF EVENING 20TH MARCH, WIDESPREAD DUST PLUMES PERSISTS IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND SAUDI ARABIA. 
** THE SHAMAL WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RELAX NOW OVER GULF COUNTRIES PARTICULARLY SAUDI ARABIA,OMAN AS THE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED TOWARDS SINDH




Above image from Kuwait Weather Dept. shows the L over Sindh


What it means?


It means that conditions will further improve for Gulf Countries,Oman. Since the prolonged effect of a Shamal dust storm remains for around 3-4 days, mild visibility problems and suspended particles of dust shall continue till +12hrs from the post and declining on 21st March


There will be a reduction in the volume of dust arriving in Sindh from now onwards as less winds will blow from Saudi Arabia. However dust from Iran and vicinity will continue to effect on 21st March also. Suspended dust particles will persists.


People are requested to take care- 


For Gujarat,Rajasthan and North India, conditions will improve on 21st March with minor amount of suspended dust particles. 


Thus PEOPLE IN THE AREAS ARE REQUESTED TO TAKE THE BELOW PRECAUTIONS WHICH ARE STANDARD


DUST STORM SAFETY------------------

Exposure and health effects

The most common symptoms experienced during a dust storm are irritation to the eyes and upper airways.

People who may be most vulnerable are:

• infants and young children
• the elderly
• people with respiratory conditions, such as asthma, bronchitis and emphysema
• people with heart disease.

For these people, exposure to a dust storm may:

• trigger allergic reactions and asthma attacks
• cause serious breathing-related problems
• contribute to cardiovascular or heart disease
• contribute to reduced life span.

Prolonged exposure to airborne dust can lead to chronic breathing and lung problems, and possibly heart disease.

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Health precautions

The following precautions can help you protect yourself and minimise the adverse effects of a dust storm:

• avoid outdoor activity. If you must go outside spend as little time outside as possible
• avoid vigorous exercise, especially if you have asthma or a breathing-related condition
• stay indoors, with windows and doors closed
• stay in air-conditioned premises, if possible and ensure regular maintenance of air conditioner filters.

If you are an asthmatic or have a respiratory condition and you develop symptoms such as shortness of breath, coughing, wheezing or chest pain, follow your prescribed treatment plan.

If symptoms do not settle, seek medical advice.

Dust storms and safety

Visibility deteriorates very quickly during a dust storm. If you are on the road and poor visibility is impairing your ability to see ahead, drive slowly. Be prepared to pull off the road if visibility deteriorates to less than 100 metres.

If your car is air-conditioned, reduce the amount of dust entering your car by switching the air intake to ‘recirculate’.

Dust storms and water tanks

To minimise the amount of dust entering your rainwater tank install a first-flush diverter.

For further information regarding private drinking water supplies,

• contact the Environmental Health Unit of the Department of Health on 1300 761 874
• refer to the Rainwater tanks booklet

Further information

If you or anyone in your family is experiencing symptoms that may be due to a dust storm, seek medical advice from your local doctor.

For further information and advice, contact the Environmental Health section of your local council.

WHAT TO DO DURING A DUST STORM-

Outrun the storm. If you see a dust storm from some distance, and you are in a vehicleor have access to one, you may be able to outrun it or detour around it. Some dust storms can travel at more than 75 miles per hour, but they frequently travel much slower. Trying to outrun a storm, however, is not advisable if you have to put yourself at risk by traveling at high speeds. If the storm is catching up with you, it's best to stop and prepare for it. Once consumed by the storm, your visibility can potentially be reduced to zero in a matter of seconds.

Pull over. If you're in transit and visibility drops to less than 300 feet, pull off the road (exit the freeway if possible), set your parking brake, turn off your headlights, and make sure brake lights and turn signals are also off. In many cases, if your exterior lights are on, other drivers will use the taillights of the person in front of them as a guide to help navigate the road ahead of them. If you are pulled off the road and are sitting there with your lights on, unbelievably, someone might think they can follow you and run right off the road or even collide with you! Turning your headlights off while stationed off the road, will reduce the possibility of a rear-end collision. If you are unable to safely pull off the road, keep your headlights on, turn on your hazard lights, slow down, and proceed with caution, sounding your horn periodically. Use the highway's centerline to guide you if you can't see in front of you. Pull over at the nearest safe spot.

Take cover and stay put. Do not attempt to move about in a blinding storm, as you will not be able to see potential hazards in your path.

• 
  

• If you're in a house or sturdy structure, stay inside. If you can quickly reach such shelter before a dust storm reaches you, get there as quickly as possible. Close allwindows and doors, and wait out the storm.
• If you're in a vehicle, roll up the windows and turn off vents that bring outside air in.
• If you are stuck outside, seek out a large rock or other landform to protect you at least partially.
• Get to high ground, since the densest concentration of sand is bouncing close to the ground, but only if (1) you can find a safe, solid, high point, (2) the storm is not accompanied by lightning and (3) there is no danger of being struck by heavier flying debris.
• Do not lie in a ditch, as flash flooding may occur even if no rain is falling where you are. In the actual dust cloud, rain generally dries up before it reaches the ground, but it may be raining nearby, and ditches, arroyos, and other low-lying areas can quickly flood.
• If you have a camel, have it sit down and press yourself against its leeward side. Camels are well adapted to surviving in dust storms.
• If you're in sand dunes, do not seek shelter right on the leeward side of the dune. The high winds can pick up huge amounts of sand very quickly, and you could find yourself being buried in sand.
• Wear a mask. If you have a respirator or mask designed to filter out small particulates, put it on immediately. If you don't have a mask, wrap a bandanna or some other piece of cloth around your nose and mouth. Moisten it a bit if you have enough water. Apply a small amount of petroleum jelly to the inside of your nostrils to prevent drying of your mucous membranes.
• 7
  Protect your eyes. Eyeglasses offer minimal protection from blowing dust or sand, but airtight goggles are better. If you don't have goggles, wrap a piece of cloth tightly around your head to protect your eyes and ears.
• 8
  Shield yourself from flying objects. Cover as much of your body as possible to protect yourself from flying sand. In addition, while wind-propelled sand can hurt, a dust storm's high winds can also carry heavier (and hence more dangerous) objects. If you find yourself without shelter, try to stay low to the ground and protect your head with your arms, a backpack, or a pillow.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES-

Conditions improving after the Dust-Storm in Gulf Countries

Img courtesy-
Asad Ali from Karachi,Pakistan

AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN SINDH REGION,OMAN AND GULF COUNTRIES AFTER THE DUST STORM


The Major Dust Storm which hit the Gulf Countries and particularly Oman and Sindh regions is now subsiding. The conditions like visibility and pollutant air is improving rapidly in the areas as the datas are informing and METD WEATHER fans are reporting from these areas!

Visit-
facebook.com/deorasakshay to participate in the latest discussions!

The latest-
A Moderate Dust-Storm is now affecting Pakistan. Reports coming from Pakistan especially Karachi indicate "Widespread dust"," Blowing Sand". Asad Ali from Karachi has sent the photo which you can see at the top. The photo is of evening period on 19th March 2012.

IT happens because of the jet streams. The jet streams after entering in the Arabian Sea move north-eastward towards India from regions over India-Pakistan border particularly Gujarat state.

IT can be seen in this Jet Stream map



Analysis of the present amounts of Dust-

Above- Satellite imagery showing widespread dust over Pakistan!
Courtesy- MODIS

The above imagery clearly shows the dust plume lying in the North Arabian Sea. As seen from the image, there exsists a High pressure system somewhere over Iraq and a low pressure prevailing over the Arabian Sea has boosted the Shamal winds. A powerful jet and mid atmospheric winds have started bringing the dust towards India also.

RingRoad Weather Station's Weather Forecaster,Ashokbhai Patel reported today morning about the Hazy conditions in Gujarat. This news is a confirmed one as the Ahmedabad's weather station parameters confirm it.

Right now, conditions are much relaxed in the Gulf countries,Oman. However the satellite imagery shows some dust spread over Saudi Arabia southern end ( marked in red circle as DUST PLUMES)
The persisting winds shall be sending the dust more towards Sindh area and India especially Gujarat area.

I don't forsee any other parameter which can trigger another sandstorm in Gulf countries and Oman today

FORECAST-


WIDESPREAD DUST,BLOWING SAND WILL CONTINUE IN PAKISTAN,GUJARAT FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ATLEAST.
* WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS***


*** DRIVERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS CAREFULLY***


THE OTHER STATES OF INDIA WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. HOWEVER SOME DUST MAY REACH PARTS OF NORTH INDIA

Into the Shamal Duststorm of Gulf countries which has engulfed the areas!

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

MAJOR DUST-STORM HITS SAUDI CITIES,KUWAIT CITY,OMAN AND OTHER GULF COUNTRIES




Though the Dust-Storms are common in the Gulf States, a major dust-storm hit parts of Saudi Arabia,Kuwait,Oman,Gulf Countries like UAE and Yemen. Flight delays have been reported in Yemen.
Poor visibility conditions are being reported from UAE,Oman. In Sindh area also poor visibility and widespread dust is being reported.

Below are the photos of today afternoon from Muscat sent by METD WEATHER's Fan Mon Soon.
One can clearly see the dust in the two images.

More photos from UAE can be seen here-

The necessary conditions (discussed below) came together which triggered a dust storm. The passage of cold front across Saudi Arabia, Oman has caused the temperatures to come down significantly.

The 1430z satellite imagery clearly shows dust feature in Saudi Arabia and South-West of it. Flaring convection is seen at the lower left of the image indicating some presence of a low pressure area

WARNING AND FORECAST:


* THE TYPICAL PERIOD OF A SHAMAL SANDSTORM IS 3-5 DAYS. * HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE NOW DECREASING FOR ANOTHER MAJOR ONE 
*HOWEVER PEOPLE ARE REQUESTED TO FOLLOW THE LOCAL WEATHER AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. 
*THE ROYAL OMAN POLICE HAS WARNED PEOPLE OF OMAN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TILL THIS WEDNESDAY


What are such dust-storms???

Dust-storms often referred as Sandstorms are a natural phenomena occurring in the arid,desert regions where there are persisting conditions for synoptic lifting of sand i.e having a significant source of sand in the vicinity. The primary condition required for a sandstorm is the presence of a large area of sand. An image posted below shows the Dust source areas which are widely observed in Iraq.

Below shows the Major Dust producing Regions where there is a significant region in Iraq,Saudi Arabia

Courtesy- Air Force Weather Agency/NRL,USGC and COMET education programe.

The Next prominent thing required depends on the type of the dust-storm. There are two types
1) The Haboob
2) Shamal type

We shall not consider much details about the Haboob type as the recent sand-storm is of the Shamal Type.In the Haboob type, the outflow of a thunderstorm is responsible for triggering the sand-storm.
The thunderstorms have an outflow boundary and hence an ouflow where the winds are moving out of the system as the thunderstorms move. The gust front or the leading edge of air of a thunderstorm then carries dust with it. In a similar way, downbursts also trigger the storms. Downburst happens when the downdraft (coloumn of air coming down from thunderstorm) appears suddenly.

Example of Haboob-

The another type is Shamal type of a dust storm!

In a Shamal type, the dust storm is created due to a perfect combination of air pressures and air fronts.
In a Shamal type, an airfront (mostly cold front) where a cold front is a leading edge of a cool air mass carries dust with it.

What is a Shamal??
Its a local name given to the North-Westerly winds blowing at lower levels of the atmosphere over areas like Iraq,Saudi Arabia,Kuwait etc. As a North-Westerly wind setup is responsible for this type of dust-storm, its named as Shamal dust storm.

Mechanism-

We shall now see how a Shamal type of dust storm or pre-frontal dust storm is set up!
The most important ingredient required is a Low Pressure area over Iran or vicinity. Low pressure area forms when the air in the region rises up in the atmosphere reducing the overall air density and hence pressure in the region. Occasional low pressures form in the areas like Iran at the 500mb or mid atmosphere level.
As seen from the below map, the areas north of Syria etc have higher elevation. When the Shamal winds blow, they carry cool air from that region towards warmer region or warmer air of areas like Saudi Arabia etc. Thus the leading edge of this air mass is what we call as the cold front denoted by the black line with triangles over Oman region . Since the below region shows the Shamal sandstorm at an age of 3-4 days i.e 3-4 days after its birth.

In the below image, just below L 500mb in Iran you can see white dashed lines. The white dashed lines are called as troughs which are nothing but imaginary lines which can be drawn which connects low pressure regions. This trough feature is easily noted in the upper level maps





Above-  IMG 2
The upper atmospheric map shows the trough feature over Iran. Its an amplified trough (shown by a bit purple region)

Image Courtesy-

THE COMET PROGRAME

 

There is also a jet stream factor (jetstreams are the currents of air at higher altitude of over 30,000 ft which are flowing throughout the world from west to east direction ). Whenever a polar jet stream digs more southward near Iraq or Syria area it comes much closer to the subtropical jet stream which presence is shown in the upper atmospheric map i.e IMG 2. Due to this, there is a interaction between the two jets which amplify a part of the cold front as seen below



In the above image, the blue line is a cold front heading in the direction where the triangle is pointing, it can be seen that the surface max winds are amplified and hence much more sand can be lifted in such a case. Also due to this arrangement lifting of sand is enhanced.

Thus all the conditions are together for a perfect shamal sandstorm.

Associated dust area-

Depending on the cold front movement, the dust area is divided into two parts-
Pre-frontal area and post frontal area.
A pre-frontal area is that area from where the cold front is yet to pass and post frontal is that area over which the cold front has already passed.


Here,
the red lines are warm front which is opposite to the blue cold front!


What to do during a dust-storm

Check this link
http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Dust-Storm-or-Sandstorm

2012 Summer Forecast for India ( Public version)

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

HIGHLIGHTS OF" EXPECTED 2012 SUMMER OF INDIA"

 1) LA NINA WEAKENING. TRANSITION VERY LIKELY IN APRIL END

 2) Summer will get to see MIXED EFFECTS due to ongoing weak La Nina and the transition period.

 3) The Weak La Nina will cool down Central India,Southern India and Eastern India prominently by  around -0.1C to -0.5C on average.

4) Subsequently the Northern India will be warming up again this Summer by around +0.1C to +0.5C on an average. In the month of May,temperature variations can take place where most of the places will mark the highest of the season temperature


5) The overall precipitation activity seems to be FAIR with most of the places in India getting NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD

Zonal Wise Forecast.


Note- The scales are as compared to average i.e (+0.1C) when counted on the average

North India,NCR,Desert Region  -

Warmer than normal summer. The overall temperature records shall be similar to 2011 year with temperature variation of ( +0.1 to +0.5 C)


East India-
The areas of Eastern India will witness a COOLER than normal Summer. The Temperature anomaly will be around ( -0.4C to -0.7C). The precipitation levels shall match the normal level


Southern India-
Continuing the tradition, Southern India also will witness Cooler Summer. However many areas will be experiencing normal summer. These areas are difficult to point out in general 
Temperature variation shall be 0C to -0.2C


Western India-
Western India will be warming up this year with temperature variation expected around (+0.1C to +0.3C).Anticyclones at lower levels in the Arabian Sea and over Gujarat would play a decisive role. 


Central India-
Central India will also COOL this year. However the strength of this cooling shall be LOWER than experienced previous year which will be pushing most of the stations to a NORMAL or JUSTBELOW NORMAL LEVEL


Temperature variation shall be around (-0.1C to -0.3C). 


North-Eastern States- 


The North-Eastern States will experience a cooling pattern this year due to assisted neutral ENSO. 
Temperature variations shall reach from -0.3C to -0.7C. 


NAGPUR WEATHER- 


THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE WHICH MAY HIT NAGPUR THIS YEAR WILL BETWEEN 45.5C (+ OR MINUS 0.5C). 


THE TEMPERATURE SHALL BE REACHING IN MAY 2012. IN ALL THERE WILL BE NOT MORE THAN 3-4 RAINFALL EVENTS DURING MAY


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2012 SUMMER FORECAST FOR INDIA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

METD WEATHER is presenting the 2012 Summer Forecast for India. The Summer Forecast of this year has two sections. In the first section,we have compared the overall dynamics of the country during April-May-June period of 2011. A comparison also has been made with the overall modes of ENSO,IOD,MJO last year with the temperature anomaly observed. The source of the data ( links at reference) ( Temperature anomaly) is National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center ,NOAA PMEL (ENSO and SST anomalies) and Climate Prediction Center Madden Jullian Oscillation.

2012 Forecast for this year is going to be a specified one that is forecast for specific areas unlike the previous year's general forecast for regions. We will be considering a total of 8 segments of India which will include-
1) North India
2) East India
3) Central India
4) Southern India
5) Western India
6) North-Eastern India
7) NCR region (vicinity of New Delhi)
8) Rajasthan,Gujarat (desert area)

Below are the stations ( cities) whose 2011 dynamics have been considered and forecast of 2012 will be issued for them

1) North India-
Srinagar,Amritsar,New Delhi

2) East India
Kolkata,Ranchi,Bhubaneshwar

3) Central India
Nagpur,Pendra,Jharsuguda

4) Southern India
Chennai,Trivandrum,Anantpur

5) Western India
Mumbai (Santacruz),Ahmedabad,Goa

6) North-East India
Agartala,Guwahati,Tezpur

7) NCR group
Gwalior,Allahabad,Lucknow

8) Desert Region
Bhuj,Bikaner


~ A.Deoras
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CHAPTERS-
1) INTRODUCTION TO THE SUMMER SEASON OF INDIA
2) STATES OF ENSO,IOD,MJO DURING SUMMER 2011
3) DIVISION WISE COMPARISON OF TEMPERATURE,PRECIPITATION ANOMALY DURING SUMMER 2011
4) RELATION (CONCLUSION) WITH CHAPTER 2.
5) 2012 EXPECTED PARAMETERS OF ENSO,IOD,MJO
6) 2012 SUMMER FORECAST
7) REFERENCES

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I. Introduction to the summer season of India

The Summer Season mostly begins in March and entends till June for most of the areas of India. The apparent migration of the Sun in the Northern hemisphere permits more and more heat to enter the Indian subcontinent which causes a significant rise of temperature both maximum and minimum. The prominent feature of Summer for most of the areas are dry westerly winds which boost dry air to come from the gulf areas which increase the overall temperature for Central India. Many times a high pressure or anticyclone is observed over Gujarat at 850mb levels which leads to strong anomalies (positive) in the temperatures over Western India.
The overall climate for this tenure in the country is dry with westerly winds. During this period, sandstorms are a bit common for North India plains.
The overall summer activity decides the state of the Summer Monsoon which follows the summer after some period. Most of the areas also witness convective activity with thunderstorms flaring due to enhanced heat available for convection.

It has been widely observed that there is a strong variation in the Indian summer which directly has a relation with the ENSO or the El Nino Southern Oscillation.Factors like MJO,IOD are of secondary importance for Summer Forecast
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2.STATES OF ENSO,IOD,MJO DURING SUMMER 2011

We consider the states of ENSO,IOD,MJO during a period (FMA,MAM,AMJ)

I- ENSO
After a strong La Nina event of 2010, the SST of Equatorial Pacific showed declining event in the Summer of 2011 where a Weak La Nina was in place. The SST anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region was

-1.0 during Feb-March-April (MDT La Nina)
-0.7 during March-April-May (Weak La Nina)
-0.4 during April-May-June    ( Weak La Nina)

06th Feb 2011 SST anomaly plot shows the STRONG La Nina in Nino 3.4 region.

20th March 2011 SST Anomaly shows the La Nina in progress in the Nino 3.4 region prominently. 

May 2011 analysis shows further weakening of La Nina.

The Oceanic Nino Index ( ONI) showing the overall IOD states. For 2011 see extreme right of the image.

IOD-
The overall phase of IOD was positive

 During a strong ENSO event, there are observed strong variations in the Indian summer i.e cooler than normal summer for most of the areas during La Nina and warmer than normal summer during El Nino. It has also been observed that there is a periodic pattern observed in the anomaly of Surface Air Temperature in a direct relation with ENSO.

There doesn't appear a direct relation of Madden Jullian Oscillation with the Summer as it does with the Monsoon of India. The most of the precipitation activity is convective based and hence not related to MJO. The Indian Ocean Dipole ( IOD) plays an important role in overall precipitation during Summer period.A Positive event tends to bring more rainfall in India. We shall consider the Precipitation anomaly of 2011 Summer period below in Chapter 3.

The MJO activity is minimum during Summer and hence not a major influence is shown by MJO as it does for Monsoon. We shall neglect this parameter..
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3. DIVISION WISE COMPARISON OF TEMPERATURE,PRECIPITATION ANOMALY DURING SUMMER 2011

We consider the Zonal Precipitation Anomalies of 2011 during Summer period and try to establish a relation with IOD. The data will be mentioned in the format- Normal( NRM),Excess ( EX) and Deficient ( DF).

We also consider Temperature anomaly during the same period. More than normal (HIGH),Normal ( NRM),less than normal ( LOW),PPT ( Precipitation),Temperature ( TEMP)

1) North India-

Srinagar - 

PPT- NRM ( EX in April,DF in June)
TEMP-HIGH (LOW in April)






Amritsar-

PPT- DEF
TEMP-HIGH






* New Delhi

PPT-NRM
TEMP-HIGH




2) East India-


* Kolkata
PPT-EX
TEMP- LOW





Ranchi
TEMP- LOW
PPT- NRM



* Bhubaneshwar
Temp-HIGH
PPT-NRM

3) Central India

Nagpur-
TEMP- LOW
PPT-EX



*Pendra-
 TEMP-LOW
 PPT-EX

*Jharsuguda-
TEMP-LOW
PPT-NRM

4) Southern India

*Chennai

TEMP- LOW
PPT-EX

*Trivandrum-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-NRM

 *Anantapur-
TEMP-LOW
PPT-EX

5) Western India

*Mumbai (Santacruz)-
TEMP- HIGH
PPT-NA

*Ahmedabad-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-NA

*GOA-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-NRM

6) North-East India


*Agartala
TEMP- HIGH
PPT-DEF

*Guwahati-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-DEF

*TEZPUR-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-EX

7) NCR group

*Gwalior-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-NRM

*Allahabad-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-NRM

*Lucknow-
TEMP-LOW
PPT-EX

8) Desert Region


*Bhuj-

TEMP-LOW
PPT-NRM

*Bikaner-
TEMP-HIGH
PPT-NRM

The graphics were not posted due to exceeding length of this article. It can be found in the link in the reference.
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4. RELATION (CONCLUSION) WITH CHAPTER 2.

STATISTICS-

TOTAL STATIONS- 23

STATIONS REPORTED MORE THAN NORMAL TEMP- 14 ( NORTHERN AND WESTERN INDIA MOSTLY AND THE ENTIRE NORTH-EAST )

STATIONS REPORTING COOLER THAN NORMAL- 9 ( CENTRAL INDIA AND EASTERN INDIA AND SOUTHERN INDIA PROMINENTLY)

STATIONS REPORTING NORMAL RAINFALL - 11

STATIONS REPORTING MORE THAN NORMAL RAINFALL- 7

STATIONS REPORTING LESS THAN NORMAL RAINFALL - 3

NO DATA- 2

INFERENCE- 


The overall data suggests that a Moderate La Nina allows Central India,Eastern India and Southern India to cool more than Northern and Western India. The Positive IOD helps in maintaing the rainfall amounts and provides excess in some areas particularly in South India. 

-------------------

All this satisfies the JAMSTEC Surface air temperature forecast for 2011 Summer
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5. 2012 Expected Parameters of ENSO,IOD,MJO

The ENSO is going to behave all together this year! Finally there are signs of weakening of  the persisting La Nina in the Nino 3.4 region. We shall see the present ( Mid March 2012) situation of the Pacific Ocean
The following are the observed anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific region in this week!

NINO 4:   -0.8C
NINO3.4: -0.6C
NINO 3:   -0.2C
NINO 1+2: 0.4C

The SST Anomalies mentioned in the respective regions is given in a graphical format below

Transition to Neutral Conditions  VERY LIKELY




The above SST anomaly plot of March 11 2012 shows some warming areas offshore Western South America (denoted as yellow green region with symbol H 2.63). Also a significant warming is seen offshore Eastern South America,across East Asia,Australia. This is a textbook feature that transition process has initiated or decaying of La Nina has started as the trade winds would be relaxing a bit. However there has not been any confirmed deviation from the trade wind across the region which will turn up soon!

The formation of higher SST across South America's Western coast often marks the transitioning to Neutral and even further to El Nino. For instance see this



The above is a SST anomaly of 7th Feb 2009 ( during a weak La Nina as seen in the NINO regions). There was a weak La Nina going on during this period which rapidly transformed into El Nino from Summer of 2009.



However a similar analysis (SST anomaly) of 5th Feb 2012 reveals a bit deeper cooling and much more Neg anomaly regions.

As a result of the clear difference from the two images,


the final conclusion that arrives is that there is a very high chance of La Nina transforming into Neutral state of ENSO during LATE APRIL period. So the 2012 Summer will have a weak La Nina till May begininning and then Neutral ENSO from May onwards. 


Possible El Nino from late monsoon period and Winter of 2012. 


The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to be positive for the summer period. 




The Madden Jullian Oscillation activity will be dropping to positive or suppressed convection from late summer period due to ENSO transitions. 


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6. 2012 SUMMER FORECAST FOR INDIA

The above plot is generated by JAMSTEC. Courtesy- JAMSTEC

After reviewing all the basic parameters, it appears that the Summer will get to see MIXED EFFECTS due to ongoing weak La Nina and the transition period. The Weak La Nina will cool down Central India,Southern India and Eastern India prominently by around -0.1C to -0.5C on average.
Subsequently the Northern India will be warming up again this Summer by around +0.1C to +0.5C on an average. In the month of May,temperature variations can take place where most of the places will mark the highest of the season temperature

The overall precipitation activity seems to be FAIR with most of the stations reporting NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD

Zonal Wise Forecast.
Note- The scales are as compared to average i.e (+0.1C) when counted on the average

North India,NCR,Desert Region  -

Warmer than normal summer. The overall temperature records shall be similar to 2011 year with temperature variation of ( +0.1 to +0.5 C)


East India-
The areas of Eastern India will witness a COOLER than normal Summer. The Temperature anomaly will be around ( -0.4C to -0.7C). The precipitation levels shall match the normal level


Southern India-
Continuing the tradition, Southern India also will witness Cooler Summer. However many areas will be experiencing normal summer. These areas are difficult to point out in general 
Temperature variation shall be 0C to -0.2C


Western India-
Western India will be warming up this year with temperature variation expected around (+0.1C to +0.3C).Anticyclones at lower levels in the Arabian Sea and over Gujarat would play a decisive role. 


Central India-
Central India will also COOL this year. However the strength of this cooling shall be LOWER than experienced previous year which will be pushing most of the stations to a NORMAL or JUSTBELOW NORMAL LEVEL


Temperature variation shall be around (-0.1C to -0.3C). 


North-Eastern States- 


The North-Eastern States will experience a cooling pattern this year due to assisted neutral ENSO. 
Temperature variations shall reach from -0.3C to -0.7C. 


NAGPUR WEATHER- 


THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE WHICH MAY HIT NAGPUR THIS YEAR WILL BETWEEN 45.5C (+ OR MINUS 0.5C). 


THE TEMPERATURE SHALL BE REACHING IN MAY 2012. IN ALL THERE WILL BE NOT MORE THAN 3-4 RAINFALL EVENTS DURING MAY
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7 REFERENCES- 


CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER- FOR MJO,ENSO PARAMETERS AND WEATHER STATIONS DATA (GRAPHS)


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_mjo_index/mjo_index.shtml (MJO)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/asia.shtml


JAMSTEC- FOR INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND SURFACE AIR TEMP PLOT


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en


UNISYS WEATHER- FOR SEA SURFACE TEMP ANOMALY


http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/ 


INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY ( ENSO FORECAST) 


http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/201203/figure3.html


GOLDEN GATE WEATHER SERVICE AND CPC FOR SST HISTORICAL DATA


http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY,AUSTRALIA FOR PROVIDING SOI INDICES 


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
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5.2M ( USGC) EARTHQUAKE SHAKES NEW DELHI,NCR

A MODERATE EARTHQUAKE OF 5.2M ON RICHTER SCALE AS MEASURED BY USGC HAS OCCURRED AT 28.8N,76.7N 48KM WNW OF NEW DELHI

THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE IS 19.1KM.

SHAKING WAS WIDELY EXPERIENCED IN NEW DELHI,NCR AND VICINITY HOWEVER PEOPLE FROM LUDHIANA,PUNJAB DIDN'T EXPERIENCE ANY.

MAGNITUDE

5.2
Date-Time
Monday, March 05, 2012 at 07:41:06 UTC
Monday, March 05, 2012 at 01:11:06 PM at epicenter
Location
28.808°N, 76.772°E
Depth
19.1 km (11.9 miles)
Region
HARYANA - DELHI REGION, INDIA
Distances
48 km (30 miles) WNW (296°) from NEW DELHI, Delhi, India
93 km (58 miles) WSW (257°) from Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, India
143 km (89 miles) N (7°) from Alwar, Rajasthan, India
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 16.2 km (10.1 miles); depth +/- 6.7 km (4.2 miles)
Parameters
NST=109, Nph=111, Dmin=970.7 km, Rmss=1.16 sec, Gp= 58°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb0008bau

 

IN THE ABOVE IMAGES,
THE RED STAR IS THE EPICENTER OF THE EARTHQUAKE WHICH IS 19.78KM SE OF ROHTAK,HARYANA

IMD HAS REPORTED THE EARTHQUAKE TO BE 4.9 BUT AKG SEISMOLOGY TEAM CONSIDERS THE USGC PARAMETER

IF YOU HAVE ANY VIDEO/PHOTO OF DAMAGE

PLEASE SEND

akshaydeoras@hotmail.com

NO AFTERSHOCK EXPECTED