Significant Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Arabian Sea

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

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AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST POST, THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM/CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED


The Visible and Infrared observations indicate presence of wedge area of flaring convection in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka given the latest peak -50C cloud tops in the region especially in the region north of MALE.
Model forecast guidance has improved a lot and is in consistent agreement that persisting area of low pressure  at 4.9N,78.3E has robust potential for organizing into a good tropical depression system.

GFS guidance form CIMSS suggests that the area of flaring convection near the low level circulation center in in the sea having SST of 30C. The IR-BD and IR-NHC spectrum imagery implies that a wide area of convection is organizing North-West of MALE given the favored themal condition.
The system is facing very good upper air divergence of 40kt peak and low level convergence of 5-10kt in relaxed sheared environment. The persisting upper air conditions has helped the system's convection to gain momentum and the developing LLC will enable in the improvement of geometry of the system.

A note from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicates presence of 25-30kt wind near the LLCC and MSLP of 1001mb.

I will not be surprised to find REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IN NEXT 24HRS CONSIDERING THE FAVORED CONDITIONS


Extremely Active Phase of MJO-

As seen from the above EWP map of Climate Prediction Center,a very active "WET PHASE" of MJO is landing in the Indian Subcontinent. Its very obvious that under the influence of this favored phase, the low pressure region mentioned above shall intensify. 




Intensity,Track and Effects


The Model guidance is fluctuating in the intensity of the system but considering the assistance from MJO, it does appear that the system will get converted to a Tropical Storm or Category 1 Cyclone. 
It shall be too early to go with Cat 1 Cyclone however the probability of it can't be ruled out. 


The Track of the system shall be in the Arabian Sea initially (26th Nov) passing close to Kerala. 
The system will move OFFSHORE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE SHORE thus limiting the rainfall totals in the continent. 
Due to the less resistance from coastal dry air, the system shall intensify on its way reaching in the North Arabian Sea offshore Gujarat this month end. 
The upper air winds ( Jet Streams) will then curve the path of this system which will bend it over North Gujarat or so. However we must wait till more details arrive




The possible effects will be 
Rough Seas in Eastern Arabian Sea offshore the West Coast of India
Strong Winds and GALE at the coasts ( West India)
Moderate Rainfall at the coastal regions 


( ALERT MAP SHALL BE PUT ON SOON)


WINTER BLOW OFF!
If this system happens to bend towards India, then it will deflect the North,North Western winds and due to its influence the winds shall be westerly to SW. This will lead to rise of night temperature in Western India and Central India also...


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Weather expected to TAKE A TURN IN INDIA.

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The overall 2011 Winter is in a smooth stage with temperatures making a sharp dip at minimum near the west coast of Maharashtra and interiors like Pune and settling around 15C at min here in Nagpur.
This year's November has been overall DRY as compared to the last year when it was remarkably wet due to a coupled effect of La Nina and enhanced phase of Madden Jullian Oscillation.

This month, the MJO phase turned down to DRY or INACTIVE phase which assisted in the cool air incursion and spread in India. However the GFS models are continuing to predict a "STORMY OUTLOOK THIS MONTH END"

The Empirical Wave Propogation from Climate Prediction Center is indicating an arriving ENHANCED or WET phase of MJO by 27th Nov 2011.

At the same time, the GFS forecast models are indicating "A JUST FORMED LOW PRESSURE AROUND 5N,80E" IN THE INDIAN OCEAN" will cross Sri Lanka and enter the Arabian Sea around 25-26th Nov 2011. The Long Range models continue to predict that it will reach intensification stage offshore the West Coast of India due to conducive environment.

If it comes true, then Western India will experience HEAVY RAINS STARTING FROM 26-27TH NOV 2011. THE RAINS WILL BECOME HEAVY WITH GALE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGES WHICH WILL PURELY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW

INCREASED MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIA
IF THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THEN THERE WILL BE A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING FROM THIS MONTH END AND WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO AROUND MID DECEMBER


THERE WILL BE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVEL IN MAHARASHTRA. 
THE WINDS ALSO WILL RE-DIRECT FROM SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH FOR NAGPUR AND ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA


THIS ALSO WILL TRIGGER RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND SOME PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA AND TOTALLY BLOW AWAY THE WINTER FOR SOME DAYS


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES RELATING TO IT

2011 WINTER FORECAST OF INDIA

 2011 WINTER FORECAST FOR INDIA

* AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

METD WEATHER FORECASTS "COOLER THAN NORMAL" WINTER FOR MOST OF STATES IN INDIA EXCEPT NORTH EAST

• CENTRAL AND WESTERN INDIA SHALL FACE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER CONSECUTIVELY FOR THE SECOND YEAR
• 2011 WINTER FOR CENTRAL INDIA SHALL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS 2010 WINTER.
• THE RECURRENT LA NINA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS.
• LESS NUMBER OF WESTERN DISTURBANCES THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE.
• CENTRAL AND WESTERN INDIA TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. 
• NORTH EAST TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FORECASTING BASIC-

The South West Monsoon retreat is almost complete as the Sun is apparently shifting Southwards which plays a major role in the decrease in the average surface air temperature over Central and Northern India prominently. 

The Winter Forecast for India isn't restricted to the local weather phenomena which people believe i.e if there has been strong monsoon there will be good winter and vice versa. It has now been realized that the entire weather of India and many parts of the world is governed by the Global Weather Phenomena of El Nino Southern Oscillation happening in the Equatorial Central Pacific Ocean briefly. 

Though not fully understood, the phenomena is of oscillating sea surface temperatures in equatorial pacific regions between above normal,normal and below normal temperatures. The scientific reason is with the variation in the trade winds blowing eastward at the surface level which leads to changes in sea water level in some areas of Pacific Ocean like Indonesian coast, Australian Coast and offshore Peru.

The phases of ENSO are 

El Nino- When Sea Surface Temperature(SST) of Eq Pacific is warmer than normal

Neutral- When SST is normal

La Nina- When SST is cooler than normal in Eq.Pacific 

It has been widely observed that winters in India go comparatively cooler than normal during La Nina.

Though this will create controversy with what the India Meteorological Dept mentioned in their winter forecast but its true that La Nina creates cooler than normal winters across most of the states of India. 

Explanation to Cooling effect of La Nina

 A possible explanation which I think is the application of concept of intensified jet streams during la nina over Indian continent. 

La Nina is marked by the increased convection in west pacific than east pacific due to strong winds towards west and vice versa at the upper air. 

Thus an amplified subtropical jet stream will tend to bring more cold air in the Indian subcontinent particularly in Northern,Central and . In the case of El Nino, due to less amplified subtropical jet streams the blast of cool air is partial and it brings a noted warmer effect on the surface air temperatures. 

Example- A river is like Jet Stream. When the river's speed is greater it will drag the stones in its way. When speed is less, stones will not be carried with it. Stones can be compared with cold air. 

Current Conditions in Equatorial Pacific - 

As on 24th Oct 2011, Sea Surface Temp anomaly is around -1.5C ( La Nina) in the Equatorial Central Pacific Ocean. 

<<< IMG 2>>>

ENSO FORECAST-

A Moderate La Nina is expected to continue in the pacific ocean at least for the months November,December 2011 and Weak La Nina for Jan 2012. 

Thus the 2011 Winter will be governed by the La Nina

WINTER OUTLOOK: INDIA

Nov,Dec - 2011 & Jan 2012 

Western Disturbances

The total number of western disturbances for this season shall be less than normal. However they will have more intensity. 

In November around 3 brief western disturbances may hit the hilly regions of the north india.

 STATEWISE FORECAST-

Note-

• The forecast is prepared considering datas from weather models.
• The figures estimated are of personal opinion and may vary with the Meteorological Department.
• The variations are predicted considering average temperature. Average temperature for this forecast refers to the average of the temperature ( minimum) recorded in the areas which are used as standard (normal) average temperature.
• The average temperature and record low temperature can have large differences but the value to be considered is average temperature
• Models used are Global Forecasting System ( GFS),JAMSTEC

1] Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal

  Normal winter conditions will be observed here.The temperature anomaly ( All season Average) shall be around 0.5C less than average temperature.

2] Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh,New Delhi

The overall temperature anomaly in these regions depend on the western disturbance. However it does appear that these regions will witness ( 0.5C to 0.9C) less than average temperature. 

After the snowfall events, temperature in the plains will drop suddenly but average will be near to the predicted value. 

3] Central,Northern,Eastern Maharashtra,Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan,Uttar Pradesh

A Significant Winter Effect is likely in these areas as the intensified jet streams coupled with their more south flow than normal shall lead to drop of temperatures! 

The Average temperatures will be ( 1C to 1.5C) less than average normal temperature. 

4] Western and West Central Maharashtra,Gujarat - 

Average Temp will be around 2C less than the normal average temperature. 

5] NORTH-EAST INDIA

The states will witness comparatively warmer winter with average temperature settling 0.5C more than normal average temperature.

Nagpur forecast

The city has already started getting cold conditions. 

• The minimum temperature in November shall settle around 12C as the lowest in the last few weeks of the month
•  Not more than a day of rainfall will take place in the city in Nov and December
•  In December,minimum temperature shall make a low of 7.5C (+ - 1C)  in Nagpur. 

Earthquake of Magnitude 5.0 jolts Southern Gujarat

* By Akshay Deoras

A Light Moderate Earthquake measuring 5.0 On Richter Scale by USGC occured at 2248 IST 20km SE of Sasangir near Vansthil town in Junagadh Dist ( Epicenter)
The tremors were felt across a wide region as it was a comparitively shallow earthquake at a depth of around 15.5km at a distance of 38km Southward from Junagadh annd 126km SSW of Rajkot.
The maximum shaking happened in Junagadh dist, Amreli,Visavadar where very light damage is expected. In Ahmadabad, very light shaking happened as the p wave travelled and caused the shaking for around 25 seconds forcing people to come out of their homes. The epicenter cordinates are
21.18N,70.540 E

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Heavy Rains to continue in North India

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The entire North India is now receiving rains and Thunderstorms due to the formation of a vortex system at low and mid levels of atmosphere. Cloud Top Temps indicate temperatures around -50C in Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand and Eastern Punjab,Haryana.

HEAVY RAINS SHALL CONTINUE IN PUNJAB,HARAYANA,WESTERN HIMACHAL PRADESH TILL NIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY ( 9TH SEPT 2011) 


THESE AREAS MIGHT FACE FLOODING POTENTIALS. 






BAY LOW - 


THE BAY LOW IS STILL LINGERING WITH MSLP OF 998MB OFFSHORE WEST BENGAL
GFS FORECASTS HAVE AGREED THAT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MADHYA PRADESH AND THUS IS GOING TO REDUCE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL IN MAHARASHTRA NORTHERN AREAS

HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINS SHALL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL,SOUTHERN MADHYA PRADESH NEAR MAHARASHTRA BORDER

CONCERNS- 


VERY HEAVY RAINS SHALL HIT CENTRAL,SOUTHERN,EASTERN MADHYA PRADESH,VIDARBHA AND NORTH EAST MAHARASHTRA, WESTERN CHATTISGARH 


WHEN ? 
RAINS SHALL BEGIN ON 9TH AND 10TH SEPT 2011


CONCERNS- 
REGIONS IN MADHYA PRADESH MIGHT SEE FLOODING POTENTIALS. 
AREAS IN MAHARASHTRA ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE SUCH FLOODING POTENTIALS

Central India to receive heavy rains due to Bay Low

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

Nearly half dozen bay lows have already impacted Central India but with some weakened intensity and direction not exactly passing along the Maharashtra-Madhya pradesh border.

The low pressure is of 996mb and presently situated over West Bengal is expected to travel through Central India with its centre moving through central MP.

However due to increase in the moisture,it is expected that the low pressure will cause heavy rains and flooding probabilities across many areas in central india





THE PRIMARY CONCERN-


THE MAIN CONCERN IS OF HEAVY AND PROLONGED RAINS IN A WIDE AREA STRETCHING FROM VIDARBHA INCLUDING NAGPUR,AMRAVATI,AKOLA,CHINWARA


AREAS- 
AREAS OF 200KM RADIUS WITH NAGPUR AS CENTER
STRETCHING IN CHATTISGARH IN EAST AND AKOLA IN WEST.
STRETCHING SOUTH CENTRAL MADHYA PRADESH IN NORTH


WHEN - 
PROLONGED RAINS SHALL HIT ON FRIDAY ( 9TH ) AND SATURDAY ( 10TH SEPT)


IMPACT- 
*** LIKELY FLOODING POTENTIALS IN THE ABOVE AREAS***


PREPAREDNESS
*** PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS MUST REMAIN VERY ALERT AND RESPONSIVE TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES. 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

METD WEATHER DEDICATES OUR FIRST HD VIDEO,X RAY IMAGE TO VAGARIES OF WEATHER

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

I AM PROUD TO ANNOUNCE THAT THE CHASE HAS BEEN FRUITFUL AND METD WEATHER HAS GRABBED AN INSANE VIEW OF TWO LIGHTNING BOLTS HAPPENING AT AN INTERVAL OF AROUND 3 SECONDS HERE IN NAGPUR


THE VIDEO HAS BEEN SHOT IN THE HD RESOLUTION OF 1280 X 720 AND UPLOADED ON YOUTUBE AS 720p while A VIDEO OF 1280p shall also BE MADE AVAILABLE SHORTLY




THE X RAY IMAGE


METD WEATHER ALSO HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN GRABBING A SEQUENTIAL VIDEO OF THE SAME LIGHTNING BOLT IN THE X RAY EFFECT OF CAMERA WHICH SHOWS DETAILED BOLT AND VARIOUS FACTORS OF IT. 

As seen in the above image, the lightning bolt is the black curved line at the center. The gray background indicates clouds whereas the two cornered white patches are the X ray images of trees. 

THE VIDEO HAS BEEN PROCESSED using iMovie on my MACBOOK PRO ADDING DETAILED EXPLANATIONS OF IT


THE VIDEO-


THE VIDEO IS AVAILABLE HERE  


 Dedication- 


METD WEATHER DEDICATES THIS VIDEO AND THE EXCLUSIVE IMAGES TO MY SENIOR FRIEND FROM MUMBAI -

RAJESHBHAI KAPADIA

Readers already must be knowing that Rajeshbhai writes a wonderful blog "Vagaries of Weather"
on Indian Weather as well as discussions about Global Weather.

The blog was set up in 2006 on 15th July 2011 by Rajesh Kapadia (check his profile) who has been looking at the weather since last 40 years!
Since then there have been many wonderful posts on his blog with a total of 1135 posts from July 2006 till date.

The blog is reaching a MILESTONE OF 1LAKH VISITORS SHORTLY !

So, I dedicate this post with esteemed pleasure to Rajeshbhai for his generous and non stop work in Meteorology and wish for more success of the blog

Akshay Deoras