No CHANCE of RAINFALL in Nagpur on Saturday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The moisture seems to have failed to produce saturation as per the 00z GFS which means the day shall continue with mostly cloudy conditions and night also

From the present amount of moisture at all levels of atmosphere, its clear that it will not rain on Saturday.

Forecast for Saturday-

Chance of rains in morning/afternoon- 0%

Mostly cloudy sky

Chance of rain in evening/night - 1% ( On scale of Max 30%)

Chance of Thunderstorm at night- 0%

Sunday-

Mostly cloudy

Chance of rain in morning- 2%

Afternoon-0

Evening/Night- 10% with chance of thunderstorm

Rainfall expected in Nagpur on Saturday,Sunday

UPDATED AS PER 00Z GFS,18TH FEB AT 1300HRS IST( 18TH FEB 2011)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Wide spread area of Anticyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal as a part of High and Low pressure over South West Bengal and South Central India at the lower levels shall pump moisture over Eastern Maharashtra from Bay of Bengal on Saturday (19th Feb) resulting in sudden increase in mid and low level moisture over Orissa,Andhra Pradesh and interior Chattisgarh

Fair moisture increase shall happen in Eastern Maharashtra including Nagpur district and adjoining areas prominently on Saturday

The 12z GFS are indicating RH at 850mb to increase to 70% over Eastern Maharashtra.

The latest guidance from GFS meteograms are indicating presence of moisture at 700mb briefly on Saturday with some rise in moisture by late night concluding chance of rains

At night period on Saturday, VERY LIGHT ( SCANTY FEW DROPS OF RAINS) shall be there in Nagpur being isolated for sure.

With marginal instability due to day time heating, little CAPE a chance of thunderstorm is also there but being 5% on Scale of max 30%

Thus forecast for Saturday ( 19th Feb 2011)

Partly to Mostly cloudy in the day/afternoon.

Rain in 6-9PM slot - 2% on scale of max 30%

Rain in 9-11:59PM slot - 10% on max 30% ( SCANTY)

Thunderstorm at night - 2%

Rains are expected to continue in light intensity across night ( periods of no rain also)

With more saturation on Sunday, Light rains are expected on Sunday morning

With expected Convection on Sunday afternoon there is a chance of thunderstorm with light rains on Sunday night

Forecast for Sunday (20th Feb)

morning rains

Mostly Cloudy in afternoon

Chance of Thunderstorm 10% on scale of Max 30% at evening period

Chance of Rain at night/Evening 15% on scale of Max 30% at night

Chance of Rain in Morning is 10%

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-----------------

Akshay Deoras

Administrator and Severe Weather Forecaster

METD WEATHER,

Nagpur,India

440022

X2.2 SOLAR FLARE FROM 1158 SUNSPOT... SERIES OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TO HIT EARTH

Main article from Severe SolarWX (c) 2011 of Akshay's Gyaan

See for latest space weather alerts here- akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

FROM TOP-
FIRST IMAGE- THE NOAA X RAY FLUX SHOWING CLASSIC X CLASS FLARE

SECOND IMAGE IS THE MDI MAGNETOGRAM SHOWING COMPLEX POLARITY AROUND 1158.

THE 14MIN TIME LAPSE IMAGES FROM STEREO BEHIND SHOWING CME ON RIGHT SIDE. CHECK THE POSITION OF STEREO B SPACECRAFT WITH RESPECT TO EARTH-SUN FROM IMAGE BELOW

LAST IMAGE- THE SUNSPOT 1158 WHICH IS MORE THAN 100,000 KM WIDE!

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 68
Issue Time: 2011 Feb 15 0246 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Feb 15 0144 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Feb 15 0156 UTC
End Time: 2011 Feb 15 0206 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.2
Location: S20W15
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE CYCLE OUT FROM THE SUN

The sunspot 1158 has increasingly grown and released X2.2 FLARE-

The strongest of this cycle EVEN OVERTAKING M6.6 FLARE OF 13TH FEB !!!

**At around 0300UTC, The sunspot 1158 released an X2.2 FLARE with Type II radio emission. This Giant solar flare has been captured on images of Solar Dynamic Observatory....

A giant Radio blackout ( expected to BE R3) is also expected from this X2.2 Flare which shall be effective shortly

Thus solar flare erruption also was connected with Coronal Mass Ejection(CME) as seen from the datas of STEREO spacecraft AND IS DIRECTED TOWARDS EARTH

THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THIS X2.2 FLARE IS DIRECTED ON A LARGE PATH INCLUDING VENUS AND EARTH.

THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 13TH FEB EVENT COUPLED WITH CORONAL HOLE STREAM SHALL BE REACHING THE EARTH TODAY OR BY 16TH CAUSING AURORAS AND POSSIBLY A MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM.

HOWEVER THE CME FROM 15TH FEB EVENT SHALL REACH EARTH AND CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON 17TH FEB-18TH FEB OR SO..

STAY TUNED FOR ALERT AND AURORAS AT HIGHER LATITUDE REGION

. On 13th Feb, a M6 Solar Flare was produced from the same sunspot which hurled tremendous Radio waves which caused a R3 Radio blackout which was experienced by many people on different frequencies..

SPACE WEATHER FORECAST-

15TH FEB- ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD

LIKELY AURORAS AT HIGH LATITUDE REGIONS

16TH FEB- ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIOD AS CME OF 13TH FEB ARRIVES COUPLED WITH CORONAL HOLE STREAM

17TH FEB- SAME EFFECT WITH AURORAS FOR SURE.

LATE PERIODS OF 17-18TH FEB,CME EJECTED DURING X2.2 FLARE SHALL HIT THE EARTH AND CAUSING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON EARTH

Heavy rains likely in North Central India. Nagpur might receive some rains the coming weekend

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A pulsating Western Disturbance presently south of Pakistan shall bring moderate to heavy rains in North Central India on 15th Feb ( date for central India only)

Areas include Punjab,Haryana,New Delhi,Western Uttar-Pradesh,Eastern Rajashtan,Northern Madhya Pradesh.

Very rains shall be in SE of New Delhi i.e close to NE Uttar Pradesh

Rainfall chance in Nagpur-

There looks some rainfall chance in Nagpur on 19-20th Feb

More details on it later

Another Shortwave trough to bring series of Rain/Snow in North India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Another Shortwave trough originating from Mediterranean sea is likely to hammer North India with a blend of rains/snow.

The GFS models are indicating the presence of a negative vorticity system reaching the 552dm height at 500mb level will precipitate heavy rains in Central Pakistan today and tomorrow.

As conditions come together for strengthening of trough over Pakistan ( typical setup),

the advancing shortwave shall modify to a strong extratropical storm system by tomorrow(12th Feb) and will cause rains and snowfall in North India from tomorrow(12th feb)

Jammu and Kashmir-

The state shall receive rains and snowfall from 12th Feb - 17th Feb 2011

For Srinagar

As the temperature profile around 850mb shall be above freezing point

Widespread rains are expected from tomorrow till 15th Feb 2011

( Meteogram posted above)

SNOWFALL IN SRINAGAR ON 14TH FEB

For Higher reaches like Gulmarg,Sonamarg ... Pehalgam etc

SNOWFALL for sure from tonight WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS

ON SATURDAY,SUNDAY,MONDAY,TUESDAY

*** MARK 5 ALERT,PDS,AVALANCHE WARNING FROM METD WEATHER

KARGIL,DRASS AND LADAKH

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM 12TH FEB-17TH FEB...( INTENSITY REDUCING FROM 15TH ONWARDS)

Thus for J&K, I expect daily overcast to mostly cloudy conditions.

Heavy snow in all higher reaches.

Heaviest snow on 13th Feb in higher reaches*

Himachal Pradesh

Higher reaches shall receive snowfall from tomorrow till 17th Feb 2011

Snowfall shall be VERY HEAVY FOR NORTHERN HP ON SUNDAY(13TH FEB) AND FOR CENTRAL HP ON 16TH FEB

MARK 5 ALERT FROM METD WEATHER

Manali shall receive snowfall on Sunday night which shall be moderate.

due to deficient moisture at lower levels, I don't expect snowfall in Central HP and Southern HP.

Rather Freezing rain or SLEET is possible

Rains in Northern Plain

Subsequent rainfall will hit North India plains especially Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Uttaranchal with thunderstorm also.

Rainfall shall be there from Monday with periods of no rainfall in between also.

Tue-Wed( 15-16th Feb) rainfall amount will be slightly greater

I don't see chance of hails this time as the freezing level stays aloft and any formed hailstone shall reach the ground as raindrop due to warmer temp.profile

For New Delhi,Chandigarh rainfall is eminnent on 15th and 16th Feb and not on the rest days where rainfall is expected in Amritsar

Heavy snowfall and Rainfall reported from North India

VERY DENSE CLOUDING IN NORTH INDIA MAKING PARTS OF INDIA INVISIBLE DUE TO CLOUDS

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

It was an entire day of Severe weather across North India with multiple reports of snowfall/rainfall and thunderstorm.

In Amritsar, weather conditions were Mostly cloudy till 0400AM today but from 0530hrs, Thunderstorm with rainfall started in most of Punjab resting 16-19C in Amritsar.

Rains continued till around 0830hrs in Amritsar with winds max at 20.4km/hr in the morning

Light rains were reported in Srinagar yesterday early morning (around 0200hrs) and lasted for short time only. However from evening 0530PM, Rains again revived in Srinagar and continued till 0530PM today. At around 0230PM when temperature reached to 1C and dewpoint below 0C in negative.. Snow was reported in Srinagar

Gusty winds also reported in Srinagar and caused havoc by uprooting trees,damaging orchird plants, uprooting power lines causing electricity cut in many areas.

Wind speed of 18.5km/hr at 0230hrs

22.2km/hr at 0530hrs AT THE SRINAGAR AIRPORT.

Despite THE WARNINGS ISSUED! one BSF porter died with three security personals injured at Gurez. Traffic across Srinagar-Jammu highway was also closed down due to avalanche ( multiple in number)

Due to the subfreezing layer of atmosphere over kashmir due to month February,

Rain and Snow were reported at many Places.

The highest of 102.2mm rain was reported in Quazigund

Kupwara-64.6mm

Kokernag-34.7mm

Srinagar- 10.7mm

Gusty winds upto 30km/hr were reported in Jammu also.

In Himachal Pradesh,

Thunderstorm caused havoc in Shimla as rooftops of houses, hoardings,boards etc . blew off!

The minimum temperature plummeted to 5.0 degree C and 4.3 degree C in Dharamsala while it dropped by a few notches to stay at 7.2 degree C, 7.9 degree C, 8.5 degree and 9.5 degree C at Bhuntar, Una, Solan and Palampur.

The minimum temperatures were one to six degrees above normal compared to four to 12 degree above normal yesterday.

Kyelong reported snow of - 27cm

Kalpa-16.1cm

Rohtang pass and Kunzum pass- 30cm

Rainfall was reported in Manali of 36mm

Saloni- 33mm

Seobagh and Tissa 17 mm each Nadaun, Ghamroor and Bangana 7 mm each, Jungi 6 mm and Jubbal Rohuru, Mehre and Banjar 4 mm.

Shimla- 0.5mm rains.

The most astonishing fact is that no hailstorms were reported in any area despite the strong thunderstorm with excellent thermodynamic conditions for hails

According to me, the layers of atmosphere close to the surface of earth were not at freezing range due to which some regions received rains. The 0C line must have been above 500mb which is unfavorable for hails as a hail shall melt rapidly due to warmer environmental temperature than as the parcel air temp in this aspect doesn't pay any role.

Cape was upto 2500J/Kg for sure.

Our forecasting definitely shall improve with a better graphic the next time when such action happens as for India lack of clear and more descriptive weather models is there as compared to other places in the world .