METD WEATHER GIVES "GO" FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON 5TH NOV 2010

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- STS 131,Space Shuttle Discovery launch from Kennedy Space Center,FL

Due to very bad weather on Thursday, Discovery Space Shuttle is expected to launch today(Friday) at around 0304PM EDT. (1904hrs GMT)

RULES VS FORECAST

1] Tanking will not begin if the 24hrs temperature has been below 41F(5C)

24hr minimum temperature was around 55.4F (13C)

So Step 1 is accepted

2] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND IS FORECASTED OR IS ABOVE 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

Wind is expected to be around 14kt in the launch window period.

Wind gusts will be around 19-20kt.

So Step 2 is accepted

3] PRECIPITATION IS NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR IN THE FLIGHT'S PATH

Around 45% chance of rains in the launch pad. But forecasts indicating very less rain chance and forecast GFS will be correct.

So step 3 is on hold.

4] LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS

Lightning is not expected today at Launch pad.

So Step 4. is accpeted

5] CLOUDS MUST BE NON CONVECTIVE AND ABOVE 8000FT

IF BELOW 8000FT THEN THICKNESS SHOULD BE LESS

Clouds are expected to be above 6000ft.

Light clouds are expected.

This step is not expected to create a problem but STEP 5. is on hold temporarily

6] This step is when the RULE 1. is not valid

So Step 6. is accepted

IN ALL

4 out of 6 steps are clear and LAUNCH REMAINS 67% favorable ( around 70% GO)

30% no go due to some high winds and little chance of spells of rain which is RARE

METD WEATHER GIVES THE LAUNCH "GO" FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT HIGH WINDS AND VERY VERY LESS CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH PAD AS PER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

I EXPECT LAUNCH WILL HAPPEN TODAY AT 0304PM EDT!

NASA HAS GIVEN "GO" FOR TANKING AND LAUNCH FORECAST REMAINS 70% GO as per their weather forecast

Tropical Cyclone JAL to intensify more!

IMAGES-

1] THE METD WEATHER ALERT MAP OF INDIA

2] IMAGE (IR-NHC) OF CYCLONE JAL IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Brief intensification expected of existing tropical cyclone "Jal"

Tropical Cyclone Jal in the bay of bengal currently (00z,UTC,5th Nov 2010) is at 9.3N and 88.6E with current wind speed ( max sustained) of 45kt about 750km East of Trincomalee( Sri Lanka),950km of East-South east of Chennai and 1100km Southeast of Vishakhapatanam as on 1100hrs IST

As of now, situated in a very very favorable conditions which includes a 29C Sea Surface Temp, supportive low level convergence, nice upper level divergence over 20kt ahead and nearly relaxed Vertical wind shear, Cyclone Jal is expected to intensify more in next 24hrs due to the blend of Warmer SST 30C in its path and developing low level convergence.

The recent satellite imagery is showing that intense convection has already organized into a well defined Low level circulation with the outer rain bands forming around the central intensity.

A set 20kt Vertical Wind shear around NW of the center has affected convection and symmetry of the setup with the rest core remaining symmetric and warm cored.

Forecast-

Tropical Cyclone Jal will intensify to atleast a Cat.1 cyclone in next 48hrs before making a landfall on 7th Nov 2010,Sunday BETWEEN CHENNAI,TAMIL NADU AND KANDUKUR,ANDHRA PRADESH( FOR PRECISION REFER METD WEATHER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MAP POSTED AT TOP OF THE BLOG)

But natural,

Heavy rains,winds,Storm surge and GALE will happen during the landfall

Refer the METD WEATHER alert map for details

Chennai,Tamil Nadu is expected to be in threat due to this system

Space Shuttle Discovery launch delayed. Weather not permissive for a launch on Nov 4th 2010

NASA had delayed Space Shuttle Discovery's launch on 3rd Nov by a period of 24hrs

Launch officially has been targeted for 0329PM EDT on Nov 4th 2010 but weather conditions at Kennedy space Center,FL will not permit for a launch

Weather forecasts-

Isolated thunderstorm and rainfall from Wednesday afternoon northward across Martin...Saint Lucie and Okeechobee counties...and into Indian River County by late afternoon.

Thu- 90%+ chance of rains with thunderstorm

High- 26C

Low -16C

Fri-20C

Low- 8C

Weather is permissive for a launch on Friday,5th Nov 2010

Tropical Cyclone Jal forms in the Bay of Bengal! Has all potentials for Intensification

IMAGES-

TOP- THE IR-BD SECTOR IMAGE SHOWING MASSIVE CONVECTION WEST OF { I } THAT IS INVEST OR LOW PRESSURE

2ND IMAGE- The IR-enhanced image showing banding features organization around low noted by outer rain bands(green color in the image)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

The deep depression in Bay of Bengal which had entered from South China Sea has now become a Cyclone definitely a Tropical Storm Cat. on the Saffir Simpson Scale

JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation alert

Forecast-

Situated at 8.0N and 92.7E in the wide Bay of Bengal, convection has rapidly fired up/intensified and organized around a well developing low level cyclonic circulation or LLC due to very favorable conditions which includes a 29C and above SST,20kt divergent outflow and developing 10kt low level convergence around the low pressure.

Vertical wind shears have now relaxed in the periphery of the cyclone and will permit for a Significant intensification in the next 24hrs!

At this stage, banding feature has started around the LLC indicating a pressure is intensifying at the center.

Tropical Cyclone Jal AS PER METD WEATHER IS FORECAST AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR NEXT 48HRS MIGHT TURN TO A CAT.1 CYCLONE WITH MAX WINDS OVER 153KM/HR

LANDFALL

LANDFALL WILL HAPPEN ON NOV 7 2010

AREA OF LANDFALL REMAINS AROUND CHENNAI AND THE ISSUED METD WEATHER ALERT MAP FOR INDIA WILL BE UPDATED ON 4TH NOV 2010 MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT LANDFALL WILL HAPPEN IN AREA AROUND TAMIL NADU-ANDHRA PRADESH BORDER IN INDIA !!!

METD WEATHER CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

CONCERNING - WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON STS 133 MISSION FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL LAUNCH PAD 39A

LAUNCH COMMIT CRITERIA FOR SPACE SHUTTLE AS PREPARED BY NASA

1] TEMPERATURE

1] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF 24HR TEMPERATURE has been BELOW 41F (5C) AT MINIMUM OR ABOVE 99F

THE 24HR MIN TEMP ON 2-3NOV WILL BE AROUND 18-19C WHICH MEANS TANKING WILL BE PERMITTED AND MAX WILL BE AROUND 26C. (84F)

SO FROM WEATHER POINT OF VIEW, TANKING IS "GO"

2] the temperature is lower than the prescribed minimum value for longer than 30 minutes unless sun angle, wind, temperature and relative humidity conditions permit recovery. The minimum temperature limit in degrees F. is specified by the table below and is a function of the five minute average of temperature, wind and humidity. The table becomes applicable when the observed temperature reaches 48 degrees. In no case may the Space Shuttle be launched if the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.

Wind Speed	Relative Humidity
(kts)	0-64%	65-74%	75-79%	80-89%	90-100%
0 - 1	48	47	46	45	44
2	47	46	45	44	43
3	41	41	41	40	39
4	39	39	39	39	38
5 - 7	38	38	38	38	38
8 - 14	37	37	37	37	37
>14	36	36	36	36	36

The above table can be used to determine when conditions are again acceptable for launch if parameters have been out of limits for thirty minutes or less. If longer than thirty minutes, a mathematical recovery formula of the environmental conditions is used to determine if a return to acceptable parameters has been achieved. Launch conditions have been reached if the formula reaches a positive value.

THE ABOVE RULE [2] DOESN'T APPLY AS MIN AND MAX TEMP AT LAUNCH TIME ARE WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE WINDOW

3] WINDS

RULE- TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND FORECAST OR ACTUAL IS OVER 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

FORECAST- WIND SPEED IS GOING TO REMAIN NEAR 7-9KT DURING THE LAUNCH WINDOW.

FORECAST SAYS "GO" FOR TANKING

RULE- WIND AT LAUNCH VARIES FROM MISSION TO MISSION

4] LIGHTNING

RULE- LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS ARE NOT ALLOWED

IF FORECAST IS FOR 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THEN TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN

WITHIN 5NM OF LAUNCH PAD, THE ONE MINUTE AVERAGE OF ELECTRIC INTENSITY MUST REMAIN BETWEEN +1KV/M TO -1KV/M

VALUES EXCEEDING THIS LIMIT ARE NOT ALLOWED

FORECAST

The forecast doesn't call for a thunderstorm with lightning potentials and strong electric intensity

So tanking is go from this point of view

5] PRECIPITATION

NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR AROUND THE LAUNCH PAD

FORECAST- FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30% CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH WINDOW PERIOD AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL AND ACCUMULATION AROUND 1"

FORECAST WILL VERY ON THE LAUNCH DAY .

METD WEATHER FORECASTS- ITS A "GO OR NO GO" DECISION AND WILL BE BEST DECIDED ON THE LAUNCH DAY SEEING THE RADAR

6] CLOUD CEILING

RULE- DIRECT OBSERVATION OF SPACE SHUTTLE IS REQUIRED FOR FIRST 8000FT

SO CLOUD CEILING SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000FT

Forecast- Forecast calls for some low clouds of ceiling around 3000ft

The thickness of the clouds is expected to be low and might favor for a launch as in this case, clouds must be light

IN ALL,

METD WEATHER FORECASTS CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LAUNCH TIME AS AROUND 4 RULES OUT OF 6 PROMINENTLY ARE ACCEPTABLE. NASA CALLS FOR A 70% FAVORABLE CHANCE WHICH IS NEAR TO METD WEATHER'S VALUE

** 30% UNACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD CEILING PROBLEM.

** GO OR NO GO FOR LAUNCH WILL BE BETTER DECIDED FEW HOURS TO THE LAUNCH SEEING THE RADAR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENTERS BAY OF BENGAL FROM THAILAND. WILL INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM

(TOP- THE RADAR IMAGE FROM KRABI IS. THAILAND SHOWING THE DEPRESSION PASSING AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The tropical wave from South-China sea carrying the Tropical Depression will be arriving in the Bay of Bengal today with expected air pressure around 1000-1002mb! The low is centered at Krabi province of Thailand at 8N 98.9E

As seen from morning satellite imagery, intense convection is firing at North,North East side of the low pressure and partial at the west side. In the periphery of 20-30kt wind shear convection is relatively poor at southern side. Amidst a very favorable low level convergence and nice upper level divergence, stron

g convection will continue to fire/organize around the low pressure as the tropical depression will intensify to a deep depression in next 24-48hrs.

(RIGHT- THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAP SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. )

Given the 28-29C Sea Surface Temp and excellent moisture and expected little interference from the wind shears, I expect that this tropical depression will develop into a deep depression and might convert to a Tropical Storm as the wind shear tendancy in its path is decreasing type!

Landfall-

Right now, the storm is moving west at around 8kt that is 14.81 km/hr and maximum winds of 50km/hr. It is indeed a slow storm and will make a landfall on 7th Oct 2010 at coastal Andhra Pradesh. For more details- See the map on front page of METD WEATHER

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UPDATE

IN AN UPDATE MADE TODAY, JTWC HAS GIVEN A FAIR CHANCE OF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING INTO A CYCLONE. METD WEATHER ESTIMATES A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF IT.

2010 WINTER FORECAST FOR INDIA

FIRST IMAGE-

MAP PREPARED BY METD WEATHER DEPICTING EXPECTED AIR TEMP ANOMALY IN INDIA SHOWING VERY COOL CONDITIONS IN MAHARASHTRA ESP AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

METD Weather's 2010

Winter Outlook of India is out!

METD WEATHER forecasts for a cooler than normal winter in most of the areas in India.

Reasons-

1] Due to La Nina ( Phenomena when the Sea surface temp in Central Pacific cool down) the jet streams are expected to intensify more across the world

2] Blocking High Pressure over Tibet

3] More southward flow of Jet streams than normal.

1] LA NINA

The Second phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is La Nina. La Niña refers

to a period when the Sea Surface Temp in Equatorial pacific cool down by 3-5C as the east ward moving oceanic waves from South America bring more colder water towards equatorial pacific.

La Nina is followed by El Nino which concluded in Mid 2010. La Nina is now in a near full swing.

La Nina has opposite consequence as that of El Nino

La Nina also strengthens the Jet streams.

2] Blocking high pressure over Tibet

As cooler temperature builds in Tibet, a high pressure area builds over Northern India and also in Tibet, Right now the air pressure is as high as 1040mb. The Jet streams flowing from west to east are blocked by this air pressure so the jet stream splits into two branches or mostly jet stream digs South instead of North

As the high pressure blocks the jet stream, jet stream digs southwards in India covering areas of Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra and much of the North-Central India.

The Jet rarely flows over Jammu and Kashmir ( except for Western Disturbance).

So more cool air digs southwards than normal during La Nina.

The intensity of the high pressure over Tibet and North India is related to the La Nina phenomena.

(IMAGE AT LEFT- TEMP IMPACTS FROM LA NINA SHOWING COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF INDIA EXCEPT J&K.COLD EPISODES MEANS THIS PERIOD)

3] As mentioned above,

This year more cool air is going to flow over Central and North Central India. This means CENTRAL INDIA,NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA(EXCEPT JAMMU AND KASHMIR) AND SOUTHERN INDIA WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER

REGIONAL FORECAST

1] JAMMU AND KASHMIR-

THE STATE IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A WARMER WINTER THIS YEAR. NOTE WARMER MEANS COMPARITIVELY WARMER AND DOESN'T MEAN TEMPERATURES 10C ABOVE NORMAL! IT WILL BE AROUND (0.5+C) THAN AVERAGE

WHENEVER THERE WILL BE WESTERN DISTURBANCE, THEY WILL BE SEVERE AND I EXPECT 2-3 SEVERE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN 2010-11 EARLY PERIOD IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH

2] PUNJAB,CHANDIGARH,HARAYANA,DELHI

THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS (0.3-0.5 C) LESS THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.

THIS FIGURE IS SMALL ITS A SIGNIFICANT FROM METEOROLOGY ASPECT.

THIS MEANS EVERYDAY THE TEMPERATURE MIGHT BE AROUND 1C LESS THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY.

3] MADHYA PRADESH,MAHARASHTRA,UTTAR PRADESH,BIHAR,JHARKHAND

THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WITNESS VERY COOLER WINTER. TEMP WILL BE LESS THAN (1C) THAN AVERAGE****

THIS MEANS RECORDED TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY WILL BE LESS THAN

1C THAN RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY

** THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING MOST OF THE TIME IN WINTER. SOME PERIODS MIGHT WITNESS DIFFERENT VARIATIONS ACCORDING TO WEATHER CONDITIONS.

4] SOUTHERN INDIA

SOUTHERN INDIA WILL WITNESS A COOLER AND WETTER WINTER PERIOD BELONGING TO COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA

RIGHT-

THE PREDICTED MAP BY NOAA SHOWING WET CONDITIONS IN COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA ( NOV-FEB)