7 inch rain in 6hrs at Varoda,Gujarat

There has been a report which I just received that it rained 7 inch or
177.8mm in 6hrs in Gujarat nearly 30mm+ in an hour. I will update more
after I receive confirmation

Heavy rains will continue in south and Central Gujarat for some more hours
Rainfall will go down after Friday afternoon

Heavy rains possible in Gujarat due to the low pressure on Thursday

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

High delay in informing this. Pardon!

The low pressure which recently swept Central India and created massive floods in Bhandara and Gondia dist in East Maharashtra now is almost setting over Gujarat and in association with it, Severe Convective Clouds having a cloud top temperature nearing to -70C have formed at South Gujarat possibly over Daman.

Also a mid level vortex system has built over Eastern Gujarat

Seeing all, I would say that Heavy rains will hit Gujarat on 9th Sept and some periods on 10th sept but not likely to do anything severe.

No potent Flood conditions exist other than for Central gujarat

Extremely heavy rains hit Bhandara,Gondia

Above- The article published in Hitavada paper dated 8th Sept 2010

AS was alerted before. On Tuesday, very very heavy rains Bhandara and Gondia places in East Maharashtra.

Bhandara district recorded 678mm rainfall in 8hours!! (OFFICIAL REPORT FROM IMD)

Bhandara tehsil recorded 110.2mm rains,Mohadi registered 42mm,Tumsar registered 195mm,Paoni-80mm,Sakoli- 138mm,Lakhandur-78mm,

Flooding happened within few hours after the rains as a result of which nearly 49 bus passengers rescued from flooded Bhandara-Paoni road!

Nagpur city recorded 35mm rains as recorded at METD WEATHER hq.

300 Houses damaged in Arjuni Morgaon,

Gondia recorded 101mm rains between 9-11AM.

around 50,000 cubic centimeter water will be released from Wainaganga dam at 10PM today

Water storages in Major lakes-

Itiadoh- 100%,Sirpur-98%,Pujaritola-97%,Kalisarar-92%

Heavy rainfall likely in Nagpur on Tuesday night and Wednesday! perhaps the last time

ATTACHMENTS-

1] SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PLOT FOR INDIA

2] HEAVY RAINFALL PRECIPITATION PLOT

An existing low pressure stationed over West Bengal is expected to track Westwards from Tuesday as being depicted the 12z GFS Weather Models

This low pressure area having an embedded low level circulation or LLC will sweep over Central India from Tuesday to Wednesday thus pumping a lot of moisture pulled in from the Arabian Sea. A reason of being windy in Nagpur since last week when winds at afternoon/evening peaked 18km/hr due to this dominant air pressured low.Thus due to potent moisture deposition combined with the day time hot air rise conflicting with the cool air above, Rains are expected for the FINAL TIME in this season on Tuesday and Wednesday

Also, Multiple mid to low level vortex systems will form as a result of this pressure over Nagpur and other areas intensifying rains. Rains are expected to begin on Tuesday late evening to night period (Timing is subjected to change in relation to the low pressure movement but nearing to 10PM). Afternoon rain shower possible on Tuesday also.

Thus, light to moderate rains will strike. Wednesday, the forecast says that it will be a rainy day

Light to moderate rains will continue all the way and relaxing by evening period

I WOULD ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS AGAIN IN NAGPUR ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY

During this time, i.e from Tuesday to Wednesday- VERY Heavy rains are possible to areas within 300km radius of nagpur

briefly Chandrapur,Wardha,Amravati,Yavatmal also

On Wednesday very heavy rains possible at Central Maharashtra

I WILL ALERT FOR FLOODING POTENTIALS IN ALL THESE AREAS AND THEIR NEARBY VILLAGES/TOWN

With this, I am expecting the end of the 2010 SW Monsoon Season in Central India atleast and Northern India since the winds have started changing their course.

They are now taking a west, North-Westerly path and I don't find any new system building up

So I think the rains will be over by Mid September i.e 16th or near.

Tue-Wed heavy rains are most likely to be the LAST TIME IN THIS YEAR

Personal note-

This season , I couldn't send much EMAIL alerts due to very busy schedule but I was constantly updating through social networking sites and my blogs

For more details on FAST WEATHER ALERTS(LOOK BELOW)

--

Akshay Deoras,

akshaydeoras.blogspot.com -
metdweather.blogspot.com- METD WEATHER BLOG ADDRESS TO GET LATEST ON WEATHER

www.facebook.com/metdweather - FACEBOOK ALERT PAGE FOR LATEST AND QUICKEST ALERTS IN NAGPUR

www.twitter.com/akshaydeoras- TWITTER ALERT PAGE FOR METD WEATHER

The low pressure area weakens and backs little East today. Mark II alert in effect for some parts

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected and mentioned in the earlier post on METD WEATHER, The most anticipated low pressure of this season backed East of the previous position on Monday. This low pressure is a result of the union of two separate low pressures which had formed few days back and had a combined pressure of 996mb

Surprisingly, this slight change in its path will change the entire precipitation outlook this week which was previously issued. This low pressure now will spend another day i.e Tuesday at its current position gaining some strength from its current 1002mb status

If the 850mb plot of GFS 00z, or the embeded Low level circulation associated with this system goes true then the low will sweep through central India by Wednesday-Thursday

As a result of which some very heavy rains will happen possibly on Tuesday late part, Wednesday and some periods on Thursday

Detailed forecast for Areas

Tuesday- The Low pressure is likely to trigger Very heavy rains with a Severe Vortex system enough to intensify the rains with already strong westerlies prevalent

I issue a Mark 2 Alert or Basic preparedness alert for the areas South of Nagpur especially

Yavatmal,Chandrapur etc for Tuesday and wednesday

Wednesday- The low pressure will show some intensification and movements

In all, Very heavy rains possible from South-East Maharashtra to Central Maharashtra

Thursday- Rainfall intensity likely to remain less

Nagpur-

Tuesday- Mostly cloudy skies and expected rainfall (slight) in afternoon hours

Light to Moderate rains will strike at late evening to night period

Wednesday- Similar weather as on Tuesday but slightly increase rainfall at afternoon and evening. Might be a rainy day on Wednesday and partially rains on Thursday

VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL INDIA INCLUDING NAGPUR IN COMING TIME!

ABOVE- THE FIRST IMAGE SHOWS THE THAI MAP OF 12Z SHOWING INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OF 996MB.

SECOND IMAGE IS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAP SHOWING THE CONCENTRIC CIRCLED BLUE AREA WHICH ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS IN NAGPUR

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

SHOCK! SHOCK! SHOCK!

An extensive low pressure area has formed by the union of two separate low pressures in Eastern India. The earlier Sea level pressure maps were showing the two systems had a pressure of 1002mb, but the thai map of 12UTC,4th Sept are confirming an area of 996mb has formed over NE Maharashtra. This low pressure with an embeded low level circulation or LLC, will again travel Westwards from its current location by crossing Central India.

Such situations of low pressures sweeping central India already have caused a lot of damage in many areas due to strong winds and rains. Those times, the air pressure was nearing to 998mb.

The 12z, GFS is indicating that this LLC will spend one more day at its position and then set off by Monday and naturally reach Central India at that time. If its intensity continues to remain the same, then VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS will hit in Central India and Nagpur also(covering all the parts of Vidarbha)

I see that this low pressure will maintain its strength till next 12hrs or so!

Forecast-

The entire forecast is dependent on this system's movements. On Saturday,very heavy rains struck Nagpur in afternoon period due to the far presence of this low and lot of convection organizing over Nagpur given the perfect low level convergence over Vidarbha

According to the expected track, FOR NAGPUR

Sunday- During the day, it will be mostly cloudy. An unexpected strong spell of rain again possible in late afternoon hours or anytime in afternoon! At night, light to moderate showers are expected.

The forecast is similar to all nearby areas

Monday- Mostly cloudy sky with A strong spell of rain especially thunderstorm possible in late afternoon hours. For Monday, the low pressure area is expected to shift slightly east

Monday night- Possible Heavy rains will hit in Nagpur

Tuesday- Expected to be a rainy day due to the low pressure. Severe rains likely to hit !

Thus, heavy rains likely to strike on Monday night- Tuesday late night period with possible flood like situation in Nagpur and all areas in 250km radius of the city

How will La~ Nina affect India's weather in 2010

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

The cooling phase of equatorial pacific also termed as La Nina which had begun last month is now in full swing as per the datas of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the precipitation anomaly in the la nina affected areas. A strong rainfall anomaly already happening in South,East Australia and Western USA.. Noted heavy rains or above normal rains are happening in parts of Australia and drought conditions happening in Western USA.

A La Nina is a global climatological phenomena happening in Equatorial pacific when the sea waters in central equatorial pacific starts cooling down! The reason for this is very simple. During La Nina, the trade winds blowing from East to West strengthen as a result of which the cooler water near South America rushes in the place of warm waters which happen during an opposite El~ Nino phase. This actually brings a very cool pool of water in Eastern Asia stretching to Australia and thus it causes more than average rains in these areas and also in parts of asia.

This phenomena always is preceded by El Nino and can last as long as 9 months to 12months! La Nina happens in 3-5yrs.Since the warm/cool water replacement is followed by high/low pressure formations. At places where warm SST is, warm air rises and a low pressure is formed.

From the present Sea surface temperature plots in the equatorial pacific,SST at the Central EQ.pacific have cooled upto to 2C.

This La Nina condition is expected to stay uptil early 2011 so its definite that the winters in India and in Asia are going to be affected!

How can La Nina affect India's weather

In La Nina, the global easterlies strengthen as a result of weakening of the westward moving winds in the pacific. In USA, a high pressure area actually forms in Northern Pacific which blocks the jet stream path as a result the polar jet stream flows through central USA thus making very cold there esp NW USA

In India, the cool water shifts towards the seas near the mainland and causes more than average rains since there is a strong and entire shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole which is a sort of ENSO or Elnino southern oscillation in Indian ocean where there is a regular change in the Sea surface temperatures in west and east Indian ocean.

In India, winters are expected to remain cooler than normal since the local jet streams dig more inland. However at this stage, the exact details of winter can't be described but I w'd expect a cooler than normal winter in Northern India and slightly slightly cool in central India.

When will the SW Monsoon 2010 end over Central India?

The NE Monsoon or Monsoon retreat begins in October and brings the cool air from Northern India to central parts. Right now in early september, this cycle hasn't initiated!

An active MJO cell currently stationed in the 140E Pacific is not expected to move towards India i.e oceans near India which means that the SW 2010 season can get over as per the predicted time

I have an estimation that in Central India, Northern India the season will conclude by mid september

Possible End of SW Monsoon in central India in an active mode

The anticipated low pressure currently situated over Eastern India is likely to shift westwards crossing central India and causing an additional moisture deposition over Central India.

Another low pressure just NW of the present one in bay of bengal also expected to move inwards

However, the intensity of these low pressures is not expected to be very strong as a result of which I think Rains Won't create a havoc in central India.

But if some vortices or Multiple Vortex systems builds over Central India as being depicted by GFS, then Nagpur and other nearby areas can get sure and good rainfall starting from Sunday night uptil Tuesday.

I will update separately as the situation unfurls!