Earl weakens considerably. Eyewall to pass just south of Outerbanks,NC

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Hurricane Earl has weakened considerably in the last few hours due to the eyewall replacement and entering cooler SST.Its also clear from the weak banding feature of Earl. Earl as on 11PM EDT is a Cat.2 Hurricane with central max sustained winds of 105mph,Central pressure of 951mb and moving NNE @ 18mph.

From the current satellite imagery, looks like Earl will just pass few miles east of outer banks,North Carolina! So precautions must be taken.

Earl's next hit can be SE of New England on Saturday but since its now getting a very strong upper level shears, dry air input and cooler SST from Cape Hatteras, before striking SE New england, it will be just a Tropical storm or Depression

Hurricane Earl weakens to Cat 3 due to eyewall replacement and cooler SST!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Just a short while ago, I had posted that Atlantic's major hurricane Earl was undergoing an eye wall replacement or new eyewall formation process in which the wind fields increase and reduce intensity of hurricane. 

Earl's system is still undergoing a new eyewall formation and as of 2PM EDT,2nd Sept Earl is a CAT 3 hurricane-

Max sustained winds are 125mph with central pressure of 943mb...

I w'd not be surprised if earl' still looses its intensity in next 6hrs or so! 

After it will gain a stable eyewall, the intensity is likely to remain unchanged( not showing an increasing tendancy) since much cooler SST are present near Earl and the disturbing upper level shears!

Forward track

Right now, EARL IS MOVING 18MPH NORTH! Which means it will just pass few kilometers (eyewall will pass) from outer banks in North Carolina. But the outer bands or rainbands to the west of eye will affect the coasts. 

Landfall time remains nearly the same mentioned earlier. 

A good news in this activity can be that a pool of dry air currently situated over Eastern USA can move away in Earl's path in atlantic due to the westerlies and can dump significant dry air in Earl's system which can permanently halt its strengthening and which can prove to be good for residents at Nova Scotia where Earl will strike as a low cat hurricane by Saturday

Hurricane Earl might have another Eyewall replacement and reduction in intensity!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Seeing from the 15:15UT satellite imagery, a new eyewall is most likely forming just south of the present eyewall. For some strong hurricanes like Earl, eye wall replacement or change of the base eye of the system is a natural process and hurricanes weaken little since the wind field increases in size making it less symmetric!

Earl's position now is just away form the subtropical ridge which is to its south and earl is now being steered by the local winds or westerlies! Due to this, Earl will make a curved path just offshore few miles of outer banks of North Carolina on Friday early morning period

But, a slight west turn can steer it over outer banks of NC and cause tremendous damage

If the eyewall replacement is in process, earl's weakening is likely on track since its max. sustained winds have gone down to 140 m/hr from 145m/hr! 

Some more wind shears are also expected to build up in next 24hrs and Earl entering to a cooler ocean

SO, it looks it will make a threatening pass with a Max sustained winds nearing to 130-135mph well in Cat.4

Hurricane Earl update at 8AM EDT,2nd sept

Hurricane Earl is continuing its track towards USA and the intensity as well.

At 8AM EDT on 2nd sept, Earl was at 30.1N,74.8W with 145mph winds at center. Its moving 18mph at NNW and having a central pressure of 932mb

Earl's path continues to be the same but little eastwards shift near the outer banks,NC

The current possibility is that Earl might miss North Carolina totally!

However, I am still finding Earl to strike the coasts of outer banks by 11PM,THU to 2AM Friday EDT

Current alerts are of 0800AM EDT,2nd sept

BELOW

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND 

WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

 A HURRICANE WARNING IS

 IN EFFECT FOR...

 * BOGUE INLET NORTH 

CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD

 TO THE NORTH 

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

 INCLUDING THE PAMLICO

 AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN 

EFFECT FOR...

 * NORTH OF THE 

NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA

 BORDER TO CAPE 

HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

 * WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH

 MASSACHUSETTS..

.INCLUDING MARTHAS 

VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

 A TROPICAL STORM

 WARNING IS IN 

EFFECT FOR... *

 CAPE FEAR TO

 WEST OF BOGUE

 INLET NORTH CAROLINA. 

* NORTH OF THE NORTH 

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER 

TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

..INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY

 SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH 

AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 

SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

 * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND 

NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND

 INLET NORTHWARD AND 

EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. * NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE. * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR. 

8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.1°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb

Hurricane Earl closing Eastern Coast of USA! Landfall near possible in coastal North Carolina!

THE 0855 UT WVAPOUR SATELLITE IMAGERY OF EARL

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster,

All the previous forecasts have proved wrong! Atlantic's major Hurricane Earl re-intensified as per the GDSL model by late night period. Since that, Earl has a massive convection happening at its core with a stable eyewall. Also the dry air seems to have been shifting away from Earl.

EARL POSITION AT 5AM EDT,2ND SEPTEMBER

29.3N,74.7E WITH WINDS AT CENTER AROUND 145MPH AND 928MB AIR PRESSURE

EARL IS MOVING NNW AT 18MPH

IT IS 410 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS,NC

Forecast models are indicating that no new shears will build on the way and the dry air has also shifted more north wards giving Earl a good chance of intensification.. .

Earl is moving in slightly cooler water but some warm waters present near the coast can add to intensification

My estimates look for a Cat. 4 landfall today in coastal North Carolina

Landfall most likely near 12-02AM EDT on Friday at coastal North Carolina NE of Wilmington,NC

High winds,Rains and storm surges possible with RIP CURRENTS!

Hurricane Earl expected to create damaging RIP currents in South Carolina

NHC EARLS PATH AT 2PM EDT,1/09/10
METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Hurricane Earl has not shown any more strengthening in the last 12hrs and is a Cat 3 hurricane with Winds around 125mph( max sustained at the center). Earl is having a min central pressure of 941mb. In accordance, the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Alert along the coastal Carolinas and a Rip current alert in coastal North Carolina

EARL'S FORECAST

No more wind shears have developed around Hurricane Earl. Wind shears at upper and mid levels are responsible for unorganising the storm system and gradually weakening it. A strong Convection is taking place and Earl now has a well defined eye wall which is being confirmed by the satellite imageries

The guidance models indicate that no significant shears will develop in next 12-18hrs on Earl's path and as it will encounter warmer SST, it might re-intensify. However only GFDL model is suggesting the re-intensification while rest models including GFS say it will maintain its state.

Currently, Earl's steering winds are the associated Subtropical ridge. It will shift westwards of the ridge and heading more Northwards, the steering winds will be the westerlies.

METD WEATHER forecast says that Earl is not likely to intensify any more!

RIP CURRENT ALERT

Strong RIP currents are likely when Earl tracks North-westwards along the coasts of Carolinas particularly in North Carolina. When the coastal water rushes back towards the open sea because of many reasons and in this aspect the High winds from a Major Hurricane. Such rip currents can easily pull in a swimmer who is swimming in the sea at this time.

Rip currents are more powerful at the time of low tides.

Timing-

Earl's expected to make a partial landfall i.e the outer bands of Earl striking areas at Northern Coastal North Carolina is mostly Thursday late night to friday early morning hours.

However RIP current alert will begin by Thursday evening

Strong storm surges and high winds followed by heavy rains are very likely during the event

Hurricane Earl threatens US eastern coast by late thursday! Intensity reduces

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Hurricane Earl has weakened to a Cat. 3 Hurricane.

Earl is moving with a Cat.3 intensity and as of 5AM,1st Sept it was at 24N,71.2E and maximum sustained winds of 125mph. This has happened as Earl has undergone a Eyewall replacement process. Earl is expected to remain same intensity as I find many strong upper level shears preventing it from organizing and a lot of dry air also

Earl is most likely to hit Virginia Coast in USA and National Hurricane Center has extended a warning for it!

Earl is most likely to be there Thursday late night to Friday Morning hours

A NIGHT TIME HURRICANE IS VERY DANGEROUS

I WILL MAKE A DETAILED UPDATE LATER TODAY