LEH CLOUDBURST IN DETAILS

HOUSES DESTROYED IN LEH

SOURCE- AFP
ITS DIFFICULT FOR ME TO BELIEVE THAT SUCH A MASSIVE CLOUDBURST HAS HAPPENED IN LEH TRIGGERING SEVERE RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS

ACCORDING TO THE LOCALS, THE CLOUDBURST HAPPENED BETWEEN 12-2AM ON FRIDAY AND LASTED FOR A VERY SHORT TIME.

THE TOLL NOW RISES TO 103 AND ATLEAST 370 PEOPLE INJURED AS PER THE STATE POLICE.25 ARMY JAWAN ALSO MISSING

VILLAGES OF PHYANG, CHOGLAMSAR, SABU AND NIMOO ARE THE MOST HIT!

NIMOO IS ABOUT 40KM AWAY FROM LEH

PHYANG IS JUST 10-13KM FROM LEH

LEH AIRPORT HAS BEEN WATER AND MUD LOGGED, LEH NEW AND OLD BUS STAND ARE DESTROYED TOTALLY, ABOUT 200 STUDENTS WERE RESCUED FROM DRUK WHITE LOTUS SCHOOL OR SCHOOL SHOWN IN THE HINDI FILM 3 IDIOTS

THE BSNL LEH OFFICE, CRPF OFFICE, ITBP HEADQUARTER, A POLYTECHNIC COLLEGE IN LEH ALSO AFFECTED.

FAQ-

WHAT ARE CLOUD BURSTS

Cloud bursts are a type of rainfall that happens from high top clouds or cool topped clouds

Mostly it happens from a Cumulonimbus(CB) cloud. Warm, moist air keeps on rising in the clouds thus making an updraft of the clouds as most of the times there is updraft of moist air... This updraft prevents the clouds from causing a downpour as rain or Hails (In the CASE of CB cloud) falls as an downdraft of the cloud or the storm system.

In hilly regions, mountains are a barrier to this updrafts and cause the cloud to release the downdraft suddenly which lasts for a few minutes but causing a precipitation of 100mm in an hour.

Most of the times, there is hail, and thunder with the downdraft along with the rains.

Such cloudburst are most likely to trigger flash floods

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS OF HIGHEST RAIN RATE FROM CLOUDBURST HAS BEEN BROKEN BY THE LEH CLOUDBURST WHICH HAPPENED ON AUGUST 6 2010

Record Cloudbursts

Duration	Rainfall	Location	Date
1 minute	1.9 inches (48.26 mm)	Leh, Jammu Kashmir, India	06 August, 2010
1 minute	1.5 inches (38.10 mm)	Barot, Himachal Pradesh, India	26 November, 1970
5 minutes	2.43 inches (61.72 mm)	Port Bells, Panama	29 November, 1911
15 minutes	7.8 inches (198.12 mm)	Plumb Point, Jamaica	12 May, 1916
20 minutes	8.1 inches (205.74 mm)	Curtea-de-Arges, Romania	7 July, 1947
40 minutes	9.25 inches (234.95 mm)	Guinea, Virginia, USA	24 August, 1906

Source- Wikipedia.org for cloudbursts.

WHAT HAPPENED IN LEH ON 6TH AUGUST 2010

A SUDDEN AND SERIES OF CLOUDBURST STRIKED NEAR KHARDUNGLA PASS WHICH IS AT 18300FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL AND 39KMS FROM LEH.

THIS CLOUDBURST TRIGGERED RAINS IN LEH AND NEARBY AREAS AND AS MOST AREAS HAVE MUD HOUSES THEN HOUSES GOT COLLAPSED,

LEH MANALI ROAD ALSO WITNESSED CLOUDBURSTS NEAR ZINZINGBAR AS A RESULT MANY PEOPLE WERE STRANDED NEAR BARALACHA PASS.

ON LEH-SRINAGAR ROAD,

MANY LANDSLIDES AND MUD SLIDES WERE REPORTED ON THE WAY WITH SOME SEVERE NEAR CAPTIAN'S MODE ABT 100KM FROM SRINAGAR

METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY

SOME HEAVY RAIN PATCHES WERE SEEN IN EASTERN JAMMU AND KASHMIR

WITH SOME STRONG CAPE OVER LEH, THE UPDRAFTS W'D HAVE BEEN MASSIVE WITH TALL CLOUDS THOUGH NOTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED BY ME AS I DIDN'T FOCUS ON J&K LAST NIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IN CENTRAL INDIA IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

A MARK 5 ALERT + A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR VIDARBHA AND DISTRICTS ON THE SE LINE OF MAHARASHTRA

THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IS CAUSING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND AROUND AREAS. PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE REQUESTED TO MOVE TO HIGHER PLACES AND TORRENTIAL FLOODS ARE LIKELY AFTER THE INTENSITY

DISTRICTS FALLING IN THE 200KM RANGE OF NAGPUR ARE ALERTED

FRIDAY- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TILL LATE EVENING TO EARLY NIGHT HOURS

THEN MODERATE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TILL MIDNIGHT

RAIN RATE AND QUANTUM WILL DECREASE SINCE SATURDAY EARLY MORNING PERIOD

SATURDAY WILL SEE LESS RAINS

MASSIVE CLOUDBURST STRIKES LEH

A massive cloud burst hit the city of Leh and Choglumser which is 13km around Leh triggering flash floods in LEH causing landslides

TWO CLOUDBURSTS HAPPENED ON THURSDAY MIDNIGHT IN LEH WHICH

TRIGGERED SEVERE RAINFALL OF SHORT TIME ALSO DEFINED AS CLOUDBURST

AS A RESULT OF THAT RAINFALL, THERE ARE LANDSLIDES ON KARGIL-LEH

ROUTE, MANALI LEH ROUTE IS SUBMERGED UNDER WATER NEAR LEH

** LEH CITY AIRPORT HAS BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL DUE TO DEBRIS, WATER

LOGGING OVER THE RUNWAY. RUNWAY WILL BE RESUMED FOR OPERATIONS

TODAY EVENING.

** NEARLY 42 BODIES HAVE BEEN RECOVERED FROM DEBRIS AND OVER 200

PEOPLE INJURED

** SABULA VILLAGE NEAR CHOGLUMSER HAS BEEN THE WORST HIT

** BSNL OFFICE, ITBP HEADQUARTERS, POLYTECHNIC COLLEGE AMONG THE WORST

HIT

** CLOUDBURST IS A SHORT TIME RAINFALL FROM A HIGH TOP CLOUD

OR CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD WHICH TRIGGERS HIGHEST RAIN RATE

IT CAN EASILY CREATE FLOOD SITUATIONS

ON 26TH NOV 1970, IT RAINED 38MM IN 1 MINUTE IN BAROT,HIMACHAL

PRADESH

Heavy rains possible in evening on Thursday

Some heavy rains are possible in evening to night hours in Nagpur.

The afternoon will be cool and might have a spell of shower. Around 7PM, it can rain heavily continuing till night!

Stay safe!

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

The projected system is less likely to become a Tropical depression

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The GFS had been consistent and better till day before yesterday and suddenly turning dud for the low pressure! I was having a dilemna as the rainbands were not organizing despite the strong low pressure at the center

For now, It will just be a low pressure system but enough strong to cause a very heavy rains over Central India. Such 100% Precipitation chance has turned a zero amount rain in Nagpur these days but very heavy around.If such happens then Central India will be washed out with rains this weekend

Forecast models suggestive for a Tropical Depression in Bay of Bengal very soon

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

A Tropical depression is very near to happen in the Northern Bay of Bengal in the next few days as being suggested by forecast models. I expect this models to stay consistent!

The Forecast models of GFS are getting better and better and more suggestive for the formation of significant tropical depression. The 00z GFS indicate the central pressure to be less than 992mb and I see a very good low level circulation within the surface low pressure with UAC also existing.

As mentioned earlier, there is a strong vorticity at mid levels with a 579dm 500mb height..

The precipitation models have surely become better and suggesting the organizing of rainbands more around the low but I am STILL NOT happy with the structure that is ideal for a Tropical Cyclone

In all, I w'd expect a Tropical Storm out of it as the air pressure certainly seems low. I will definately stick on it and keep updating

THIS TROPICAL STORM'S EXPECTED PATH LOOKS TO BE JUST MISSING KOLKATA AND TURNING WESTWARDS AND CENTERING OVER CENTRAL INDIA BY THIS SATURDAY,7TH AUGUST 2010

IF TRACK HAPPENS, CENTRAL INDIA WILL BE FLOODED IN THIS WEEKEND AS THAT WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR JUST THE END STAGE OF IT..

Chance of a Tropical Depression in Bay of Bengal in first week of August

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

With sufficiently low formations of low pressures and particularly solid tropical depressions in bay of bengal, The SW monsoon witnessed a major disappearance in Mid July period. The portion faced relief in late July when some low pressures started forming from widespread convections in bay of bengal. I have already mentioned that August and September will be very active for the SW Monsoon even more than June and July. I will like to modify this statement some and use terminology THAT MID AUGUST TO MID SEPTEMBER WILL BE ACTIVE FOR SW MONSOON OVER INDIA ESP CENTRAL INDIA

I was expecting a La Nina condition to develop this year end by August which has happened and La Nina is in a DEVELOPING STAGE. A La Nina event is sufficient to trigger good rains over India and better if the Indian Ocean Dipole remains positive. But according to the latest datas from DMI, July DMI (Dipole Mode Index) has again negative index of -0.4 which means less rainfall activity until DMI recovers. I am sure that this will rise to positive side after a sufficient La Nina has triggered thus allowing trade winds to do so...

As per the datas updated from MJO oscillations, MJO over 70-100E is -1.5 which has to be positive at this time for good rains and also Tropical cyclones

I don't find ANY ACTIVE MJO PROPOGATING TILL AUGUST MID THUS SUPRESSING CONVECTION

Third thing

The GFS forecast models are impressive for the formation of a Tropical Depression having an expected central pressure lower than 996mb. I see a good low level circulation with a nice mid level vorticity. But, I don't find any organised rain bands around the low which is required for strengthning of storm system. BUT since models are getting better in each run, I w'd expect a tropical depression or IF LUCKY a Tropical Storm by 5-6th August in bay of Bengal.

I will keep on updating on it