Update on Dates of Monsoon onset in India

I will Update on the 2010 Indian Monsoon Season dates on 27th May 2010 by 1500hrs--

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,METD WEATHER

MODERATE RISK OF STORMS IN USA AGAIN!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

A cut off trough with southerly jets of 100kt setting deep in NE COLORADO with an embeded SFC cyclone of 996mb across WEST South Dakota will favour for deep convection in a region with strong CAPE over 3000J/Kg. The classic 40kt LLJ will pump good moisture  in this sector causing dewpoints of more than 60F and nice vertical shears for rotations. The threat sets up for Moderate Risk across South Central ND, Much western SD,NW NE. 

Looking at the models, 

My Targets for severe tornado will be NE COLORADO TO SW KS for early period and moving northwards to North East SD

The HIGHEST temperature of Nagpur in 2010

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

24th May 2010, Monday was an historic day for weather. The maximum temperature recorded today was 47.3C or apx 117.14F. This temperature has been officially recorded and will surely make a Headline in tomorrow's<25th May's> newspapers. Severe Heat conditions are prevailing within the low pressure which has built up in the north-central India. 

This week will be insane for temperatures also with dry strong winds blowing across plains. It leads to a high feel temperature more than 50C

METD WEATHER issues a permanent weather alert till 1st June 2010 Evening. Alert will be for High temp with blowing winds all the time

Also the 2010 Indian Monsoon Track has been issued which will be emailed soon!

Part 2, Dates of 2010 Indian Monsoon season

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The 2010 Indian Monsoon season seems to be AFFECTED by the Tropical Cyclone Laila as per METD WEATHER. Laila's unusual path inwards AP and again surging in Bay of Bengal has done two things. By this path, Laila didn't consume all the moisture in BOB but has partially consumed the moisture and by the progress Eastwards, Moisture at low levels to mid levels will drag East of BOB due to low pressure movement. As the low pressure is exiting in the BOB, the surface pressure over Mainland of INDIA ARE BECOMING DOMINANT AND WILL PULL THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-WESTERN TIP OF INDIA.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA 1008mb IS SETTING UP TO THE VERY SOUTH OF KERALA WHICH IS GOING TO SUPPLY GOOD MOISTURE TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AREA.
THE JETS AT UPPER LEVELS HAVE A VERY GOOD EASTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOIST AIR INWARDS.

THE GFS,00Z MODELS FOR 850MB WINDS, ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOWING THAT THE MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN ARABIAN SEA AND ALSO OVER KERALA. THE MOISTURE PLOT FOR ARABIAN SEA IN NEXT WEEKS IS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER AND THE LLJ ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTH INDIA.
BASED ON THE PRESSURE AND MOISTURE MODELS, IT IS CLEAR THAT LAILA HAS AFFECTED THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN BOTH ARABIAN SEA AND BOB WHICH IS GOING TO DELAY THE START OF 2010 MONSOON SEASON. MOSTLY AFTER THE CYCLONE EXITS OR BECOMES WEAK, IT TAKES ABOUT 2 WEEKS OR MORE FOR MONSOON TO GET ACTIVATED THE CONVECTION .

II... 2010 CYCLONE SEASON AND ITS EFFECTS ON MONSOON
AS HAD MENTIONED EARLIER, THIS YEAR CYCLONES ARE GOING TO BE INSANE AS ITS A FALL YEAR FOR THE EL-NINO EVENT 2009-10. WARM WATERS SHIFT NOW WILL STOP TOWARDS COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA LEADING TO MUCH HIGH SST IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WHICH CAN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONES AND MAKE THEM INSANE. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ANOMALY RAINFALL TRACK WHICH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM EAST GIVES US ROUGH IDEA FOR INTENSITY OF CYCLONES. HIGH MJO INDEX CAN RESULT STRONG CONVECTION TURNING TO CYCLONES IF REST CONDITIONS MEET. SO FAR MJO HAS BEEN GOOD AND POSITIVE BUT IN MAY HAS
TURNED NEGATIVE. THIS CAN MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE NO CYCLONES TILL MID OR LATE JUNE IF MJO PROVES RIGHT. ITS FAVOURABLE FOR MONSOON BUILDING AND ADVANCING. ALSO, A NEGATIVE INDEX IS GOING WITH THE IDO
ITS SIMILAR TO EL~NINO AND LA~ NINA BUT OCCURING WITHIN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS PLOT IS NEGATIVE, IT MEANS THAT COOL WATER IS PRESENT IN WEST INDIAN OCEAN AS COMPARED TO EAST INDIAN OCEAN NEAR INDONESIA. A NEGATIVE PHASE STILL IN MAY CAN ADD TO LESS RAINS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS

BASED ON ALL PLOTS,
METD WEATHER THINKS THAT IF TROPICAL CYCLONES DON'T HOLD THAT GOOD IN MAY END TILL JUNE MID, A FAVOURABLE MONSOON WILL BUILD UP AND ADVANCE. HOWEVER IF ANY CYCLONE RE-STRIKES IN JUNE LATE, A STRONG DEFICIANCY WILL BE SEEN IN JULY.

METD WEATHER TARGETS-----

WITH 98% SUCCESS IN 2009 MONSOON FORECAST, METD WEATHER THINKS FOLL..

** MONSOON IN 2010 WILL BE 68-78% GOOD OUT OF 100%.
** MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN JULY END AND AUGUST IN MOST PARTS OF COUNTRY INCLUDING NAGPUR,MAHARASHTRA.

IF CYCLONES HOLD GOOD IN LATER JUNE, A STRONG DEFICIANT MONSOON IN JULY MONTH WILL BE SEEN IN INDIA

DATES***************

BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP MODELS, MJO INDEX,IDO INDEX,SST TEMP AND ALL LEVEL PLOTS

MONSOON TO HIT KERELA-

BETWEEN 5TH JUNE TO 10TH JUNE. MORE LIKELY BY 7TH JUNE 2010
REMAINING DATES CAN BE CALCULATED FROM GENERAL TREND OF ADVANCEMENT

MONSOON TO HIT NAGPUR,MAHARASHTRA
24-30TH JUNE 2010 AND MORE ACCURATE DAY CAN BE 26TH JUNE

THE INWARD PROPOGATION ON MONSOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CYCLONES AND DEPRESSIONS IN BOB AND ARABIAN.

DATES FOR MAHARASHTRA ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGED AND I WILL UPDATE THEM DAILY STARTING FROM 10TH JUNE 2010 LIKE LAST YEAR,2009


FOR MORE ASSISTANCE CONTACT

AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER AND METD WEATHER OWNER
66,S.E.Rly Colony,Pratap Nagar,
Nagpur-22
Maharashtra,India

metdweather.blogspot.com
email- akshaydeoras@hotmail.com
twitter.com/akshaydeoras
facebook page for METD WEATHER

Moderate Risk across Oklahoma

-Akshay Deoras

There is a MODERATE risk of Severe Weather much across OK

A classic upper level shortwave trough will be digging in forcing southeasterly wind flow adding to moisture over Oklahoma at upper levels at the 300mb level causing much moist atmosphere and very low LCL leading to low cloud bases and significant lifting due to CAPE over 2000J/Kg.

A very good LLJ of 30kt ejecting over Central OK will pull the moisture and cause 60F+ dewpoints.

A warm sector will develop in central OK in the vicinity of warm front across and cold front at Panhandle by 18z. Much convection and tornadoes will strike later afternoon to night hours. As the warm sector spreads, supercells will explode and cool air aloft will lead to large Hail drops and supreme tornadoes all the way mainly near South Central OK, South Western AR and Oklahoma Texas Border at Southern Side of Norman.

Conditions for Tornadoes are HIGH but not a HIGH RISK AS PER SPC.

TC LAILA HEADING TO INDIA

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- NEW TRACK OF TC LAILA

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED

The tropical cyclone 1B now named as Laila has strengthened since last night due to organising around mid level and low level circulation and is strengthning to CAT 1 by 1700hrs,19th MAY 2010

Present track of Laila as been detected on 0500hrs,19th may was 13.2N,83.3E about 190 km east-northeast of Chennai, 480 km west-southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km southwest of Kolkata.

NCEP models with JTWC are indicating cyclone will intensify now onwards till tomorrow before it makes a landfall as CAT 1 with winds over 110km/hr

LANDFALL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LAILA AT MACHILIPATANAM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON 20TH MAY 2010,THURSDAY BETWEEN 04:30AM - 06:30AM.PEOPLE MUST TAKE SHELTER THIS NIGHT AND TAKE THE WARNINGS SERIOUSLY AS THIS CAN CLAIM A LIFT.HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA TILL THE CYCLONE EXITS TOTALLY.

VISHAKHAPATANAM IS OUT OF THE MAJOR ALERT AS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE THERE. BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON 20-21 MAY.

THE LATEST TRACK SHOWS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER ORISSA AND BE A LOW DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT PASSES SOUTH KOLKATA ON 23RD MAY,0000HRS

People must listen to the alerts

Another tropical cyclone will form near African Coast in Arabian sea

the area of convection

 previously located 

near 11.0n 55.5e, is

 now located 

near 10.8n 55.1e,

 approximately 

110 nm southeast 

of socotra island.

 Animated infrared

 satellite imagery

 depicts a developing 

low-level circulation

 center (LLCC) with 

deep convective 

banding over the 

southern semi-Circle

. An 181721z metop-a 

image also indicates

 a strengthening,

 well-defined LLCC

 with convective

 banding wrapping

 from the southwest

 into the northwest

 quadrant. 

The 181721z

 ascat ambiguity analysis

 showed a small, tight

 LLCC with 20-25 knot 

winds near the center

 and 30-35 knot winds

 displaced along the

 southwestern periphery 

of the LLCC. Upper-level

 analysis indicates 

a more favorable

 environment with

 weak vertical wind

 shear and diffluent flow 

over the LLCC. 

The system is expected to

 continue developing, 

aided by the enhanced 

southwesterly surface flow

 and improved northeasterly

 flow over yemen. Maximum

 sustained surface winds

 are estimated at 

25 to 30 knots.

 Minimum sea level 

pressure is estimated

 to be near 1001 mb.

 The potential for the

 development of a

 significant tropical 

cyclone within the next 

24 hours is upgraded to

 good

TROPICAL CYCLONE 1B FORMS IN BAY OF BENGAL

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Tropical cyclone in Bay of Bengal

The 2010 North Indian ocean cyclone season has opened with a bang. Since the last week some convection happening in the SE bay of Bengal which initially was favoured of development of Low level circulation near Andaman Nicobar Islands. The convection in strong Sea Surface Temp. with low to moderate vertical shear, strong upward vorticity, situated in a divergent wind flow resulting to easy outflow, also limited horizontal wind across the region, has resulted this system to intensify to the first cyclone of this year in Bay of Bengal

As per the datas from NCEP, the following track of cyclone is possible

DATE/TIME(UTC)	POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)	SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
17-05-2010/1200	11.0/88.0	55-65 GUSTING TO 75
17-05-2010/1800	11.5/87.5	55-65 GUSTING TO 75
18-05-2010/0000	12.0/87.0	65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/0600	12.5/86.5	65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/1200	13.0/86.0	75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/0000	14.0/85.0	75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/1200	15.0/84.0	85-95 GUSTING TO 105
20-05-2010/0000	16.0/83.0	95-105 GUSTING TO 115
20-05-.2009/1200	17.0/82.0	95-105 GUSTING TO 115

THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS APX. 100KM EAST OF CHENNAI 12PM ON 19TH MAY AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE INSIDE IN TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH AND CAUSE HIGH SURFS AND ROUGH SEAS SO FISHERMAN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN SEA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE AND MAKE A LANDFALL PARTIAL ABOUT 80KM EAST OF KALIPATANAM. AT 1800HRS ON 20TH MAY AND THEN ON 21ST MAY AT 1800HRS,IT WILL MAKE A LANDFALL AT VISHAKHAPATANAM WITH A VERY STRONG 63KT+ GUSTS AND AS CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE, THE MAXIMUM

ON 22ND MAY IT WILL MOVE TO ORISSA AT RATANPUR,JAMBU IN ORISSA GUSTING TO 81MPH WINDS.

THE PRESENT ALERT IS FOR ROUGH SEAS IN ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU ON 19TH MAY. THE ALERT IS VISHAKHAPATANAM FOR A LANDFALL ON 21ST MAY 2010