TC Ului arrives at Airlie Beach, Eyewall passing through mainland

METD Weather
TC ULUI STATUS # 2
Time 3:57LT

TC ULUI has entered Airlie beach at 1:30 LT as per BMO,australia.
The eyewall is right now passing through the main land CONFIRMED REPORTS of Eyewall passing between Airlie beach and Mackay at 16:32 UTC.
Winds reported to me 205km/hr

Cyclone is now expected to weaken as it moves over land. However the precipitation cores will now rumble causing floods and heavy rains in some parts.......

METD WEATHER OPERATING LIVE FROM INDIA FOR TC ULUI

Dear all,
With respect of the landfall of cat. 3 tropical cyclone Ului, I am operating live with all the australian network servers

The current updates will be given through here and twitter. Kindly see them

PRESENT STATS AND UPDATE-
TIME 16:45HRS GMT,20TH MARCH... 03:49AM,21ST MARCH EST

METD WEATHER HAS CONFIRMED THAT TC ULUI HAS STRENGTHENED TO CAT 3. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IN 964MB WHICH HAS DROPPED FROM 990MB+ WITHIN HOURS.
AS ANALYZED BY BMO ON 1:00 LOCAL TIME,ULUI--
The cyclone is currently crossing the coast near Airlie Beach as a severe tropical cyclone. The large eye of Ului is expected to continue inland crossing Proserpine, Bowen and Collinsville in the next hour or two. The cyclone is then expected to gradually weaken as it moves further inland later today.
BOWEN NOW HAS WINDS OVER 50KM/HR AND THE PRESSURE IS 986mb.

WINDS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 205KM/HR
ALERT ALERT ALERT





Category 3
Sustained winds 50–58 m/s 96–113 kt

178–209 km/h 111–130 mph

Storm surge 2.7–3.7 m 9–12 ft

Central pressure 945–964 mbar 27.91–28.47 inH

CAT 3 Tropical cyclone Ului to make landfall in Queensland,Australia on 21st March 2010

METD ALERT
Akshay Deoras
IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED_

As had earlier been said,cyclone ului is heading straight towards Australia's North Eastern part. AS per the latest observations this cyclone will make a landfall somewhere between Bowan and Mackey,Queensland and the eyewall is expected to pass through Proserpine. TC Ului has devastating wind speed ranging to 63mph gusting to 64mph. Ului is at present 19.9 S and 151.7E. Ului, currently a category two storm on the scale of one to five, is 365 kilometers (227 miles) east-northeast of the city of Mackay, moving west southwest at 27 kilometers an hour, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on its Web site in a bulletin issued at 1:55 p.m. local time. The state government preemptively declared a disaster situation.T

This cyclone is expected to strengthen as it comes to the coast. Recently it had weakened due to a NW WIND SHEAR.But recent satellite images are showing that it has strengthen to some extent leading to high wind. The difference in the two 6hourly images is showing that the cyclone has organized a lot. According to Australian meterology this cyclone will be cat 3 at the time of landfall.
here is the bulletin----
Remarks:

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 200 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect coastal and island communities in the threatened area late tonight and early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts during Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the highest tide of the year overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the very destructive winds develop late tonight and early Sunday. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as winds may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should now be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services
website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage)
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului

Details:
Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 20 3 20.0S 150.3E 35
+6hr 2 am March 21 3 20.3S 148.7E 65
+12hr 8 am March 21 2 20.6S 147.1E 95
+18hr 2 pm March 21 1 20.9S 145.7E 120
+24hr 8 pm March 21 tropical low 21.1S 144.3E 150
+36hr 8 am March 22 tropical low 21.0S 141.5E 210
+48hr 8 pm March 22 tropical low 19.5S 138.6E 270
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 10:00 pm EST Saturday

BELOW ARE THE TECHNICAL DETAILS--

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in northern quadrants extending to
70 nautical miles in southern quadrants with high to very high seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in northern quadrants
and within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 20.4 south 148.4 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots
At 0600 UTC 21 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.0 south 145.4 east over
land
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email
to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241 through
Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 March 2010.

Update of Recent Weather conditions in USA southern plains

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras

Concerning- Heavy snowfall with Winter storm condition in Oklahoma and weak storms in LA,MS

A powerful system is expected to enter Oklahoma shortly causing heavy rains which will convert rain to snow at some places due to approaching cold front.The 850mb forecast models of 00z RUN is showing an intensifying low level jet of 40kt over western Oklahoma.
The overhead low means a winter storm condition with high wind crossing 40miles/hour.
The accumulated rain/snow models is showing significant snowfall of as high as 10" + in still water Oklahoma and 3-5" for Altus,OK. Blowing snow is expected as the winds achieve 33mph in NWSTRN OK,32mph in OKC. NWS HAS ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNING AND WATCHES FOR OKLAHOMA. The temperatures are going to be negative in this region infront of the cfront.
People must undertake all the safety measures.
Meanwhile as Oklahoma will continue with Winter storm, for the 09z,an approaching storm will lash central parts of Texas. These upper level low will fire LLJ with 30kt gusts over parts of Central TX to Upper parts of TX.Helicity index for the lower level shows 200m2,s2 values which will be helpful in rotating the storm. The updrafts will be pretty intense in these regions as the CAPE rises to more than 1000J/kg.
The SKEW-T map shows a OC at the favoured lower levels 650mb which will be helpful in creating the hails. Storms will fire here after the half part of morning. Damaging wind gusts are expected here.The threat for tornadoes however remains 2% with the threat of Hails about 5%. THe EHI<0-1km> is showing high energetic conditions of 2.0 which might create supercells.
The same day,threat for Louisiana and MS valley for thunderstorms decreases as uptil 21z, no lows will move EWDS To the MS Valley. The storms will line up at the pre-frontal activity zone which will slow the condition as analyzed by the NAM.
I bet Texas has a good scope than MS on saturday. At 27z,cyclogenesis at the lower level will strengthen the storm and push the LLJ EWDS.
After 36z, storms will fire in different zone of the southern MS,AL.
The instability remains too less there as the cold front approaches and drops the temperature and the dew point to 40F. Damaging winds are expected at this area as the energetic conditions are very low.
Some storms too will fire in Florida coast but the same lower conditions are there.

Mixed Weather to happen in southern plains of USA on 20th March

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

CONCERNING- MIXED ROUND OF WEATHER IN USA.

IN USA,THIS YEAR, ONLY 56 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OUT OF WHICH 41 IN JAN,1 IN FEB AND 14 IN MARCH.

12z,18th march run
THE GFS 12Z RUN FOR 60HR INDICATING A CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER SOUTHER PLAINS WITH THE MAX SPEED OF 100KT AT THE 300MB LEVEL. THE TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER SRN TX PEEPING IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE LEVEL MAP SHOWS 50KT JETS OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER LLJ 45KT AND 50KT OVER OK AND TX-NM BORDER. THE CONCERNING ONE IS THE LLJ OVER OK
THE SURFACE SLP MAP IS SHOWING LOW CENTERED SWWRDS OK AND THE AIR TEMP MAP IS SHOWING COOL AIR MASS ALL OVER IN OK. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE COLD FRONT COMING IN DUE TO THIS LOW. GENERALLY THE CFRONT APPEARS TO THE WEST OF LOW COMING FROM N-NW WRDS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS GOING TO DECREASE THE DAY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY FOR OKLAHOMA CONSIDERABLY. AT PRESENT SURFACE TEMP OF NORMAN,OK IS 17C WHICH WILL DROP TO THE FREEZING POINT ON SAT.THE AIR TOO IS SATURATED WITH WATER VAPOUR WITH RH 90%. THE SKEW-T FOR NORMAN SHOWS TEMP OF 0C AT THE 900MB BUT WILL RISE TO POSITIVE UPTO 700MB. THIS TEMP HAS TO BE 0C. SO PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE SNOW AS THE AIR TEMP AT 900MB WILL BE 0 WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE 4C.
AS THERE IS AN OVERHEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LLJ AT THE SURFACE,HIGH WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 20KT OR 35KM+ ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WHICH MIGHT GIVE THE EFFECT OF A WINTER STORM AS THE ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION SHOWING MODERATE SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE OK IS EXPECTED TO BATTER UP WITH SNOW DURING AFTERNOON TO NIGHT HRS WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS AS THE LLJ AMPLIFIES, 50KT LLJ WILL CREATE THUNDERSTORMS IN MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE COASTAL AREAS. CHANCE OF TSTORMS NEAR MS LIKE LOUISIANA IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT. FOR MS VALLEY,THE AIR TEMP FOR THE SURFACE TILL THE MIDDLE LEVEL IS GOING TO BE AROUND 16C OR 61F. THE DEWPOINT WILL BE AROUND 60F. THE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER LATE AFTERNOON WITH FIRING OF T.STORM AROUND THIS TIME. SPEAKING FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE.TORNADOES TOO ARE POSSIBLE. THE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE AROUND 750J/KG WHICH MAY RISE TO 800+ DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THE COLD FRONT SHALL NOT BECOME A BARRIER FOR JACKSON,MS AND LOUISIANA AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AWAY FROM THESE AREAS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODERATE 21KM WIND HERE IN MS.THE VORTICITY MODEL SHOWING AIR SPIN IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE V.VORT IS SIGNIFICANT. THE EHI MODELS CANT BE DETERMINED ACCURATELY NOW.
THE COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND HIGHLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DECREASING DAY/NIGHT TEMP. I LAUGH WHEN I SEE THE TEMP AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR DODGE CITY,KS WHICH WAS JOHN HALLEN'S PLACE OF BET FOR TORNADOES DURING LAST MARCH 2010 OUTBREAK WHICH REPORTED 2 TORN AT OK. D.CITY WILL GET SNOWFALL!!!!

FOR MS AND JACKSON AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES E WRDS,COLD FRONT WILL DROP NIGHT TEMP TO 1C ON SAT NIGHT.RAINS WILL STAY AFTER STORM PASSES

FOR T STORM CONDITION ON SAT 20TH MAR
THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE CONDITIONS AND SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF TSTORM IN MS. SO SPC HAS ISSUED 15% RISK FOR LOUISIANA AND MS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE AGAINST IT BUT I WILL STICK TO THE ECMWF.
MORE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATER AS THE NEW RUNS COME!
* THE FRIDAY OUTLOOK OF SPC WILL BE TRANSLATED BY ME TONIGHT

Tropical cyclone tomas bypasses fiji

Tropical cyclone Tomas landed at Fiji killing one person. Tropical Cyclone Ului had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour, 150 miles per hour) and gusts up to 160 knots (300 km/hr, 180 mph). Over Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (215 km/hr, 132 mph) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph)

Ului is now a threat to australia


See the foll.links of the landfall

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMsToqS48jk

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2010/mar/16/tropical-cyclone-tomas-fiji-islands

Tropical Cyclone Tomas-a threat for Fiji group

METD WEATHER

AKshay Deoras

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED--

A tropical Cyclone known as Tomas with a damaging wind gusts and a central pressure of 940mb is moving towards Fiji Island

Here are the warnings.

Hurricane Warning Update: 2pm

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

+ Enlarge this image

A satellite image of TC Tomas over the Northern Lau group at 6.30am today

Special Weather Bulletin Number 26 for Fiji on Tropical Cyclone Tomas Issued from RSMC NADI at 1:54pm on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, KABARA, ONO-I-LAU, AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR NAYAU, LAKEBA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, TAVEUNI, FAR SOUTH EAST OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, REST OF THE LOMAIVITI GROUPS AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 240KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 235 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 1PM TODAY.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 165 KM/HR EASING TO 100 KM/HR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 20 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 35KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 395 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA 1AM TOMORROW AND ABOUT 390 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 785 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 1PM TOMORROW.

FOR MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, KABARA, ONO-I-LAU, AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

• WINDS TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR.
• FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
• PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
• FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE NAYAU, LAKEBA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

• WINDS TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR.
• FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
• VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, TAVEUNI, FAR SOUTH EAST OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, REST OF THE LOMAIVITI GROUPS AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

• WINDS TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR.
• PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
• VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
• FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:

• FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
• CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
• POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
• ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

• HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS.
• STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS.
• GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SECTORS AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SECTORS.
• ELSEWHERE STRONG WINDS VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6PM TODAY OR EARLIER.