HIGH ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORM IN NAGPUR ON 12TH MARCH EVENING-NIGHT. URGENT

 METD ALERT- IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED. A BIG THUNDERSTORM HEADING TOWARDS NAGPUR WITH HIGH RADAR REFLECTIVITY. MODELS AND RADAR HAVE CONFIRMED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN NEXT HOURS.TIME IS 07:20PM. ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 12 AM MIDNIGHT,13TH MARCH 2010. IT CAN BE STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS! PLEASE SPREAD THE MESSAGE. THIS STORM EITHER CAN HIT OR MISS. THE MORE CHANCE IS A DIRECT HIT. PLEASE REMOVE TV CONNECTIONS,FRIDGE CONNECTIONS ETC. TILL I CALL OFF THE WARNING. 

PREVENTION IS ALWAYS BETTER

akshay

Many tornadoes reported in USA. New alert for thursday,Friday

METD Weather

Akshay Deoras

Lead Weather Forecaster-

Concerning- Slight severe Weather In USA on thursday,friday

I have no time for updating my writing so its review from SPC

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK      NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK    0659 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010        VALID 111300Z - 121200Z        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL...        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN    VLYS...        ...SYNOPSIS...    BROAD UPR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LWR MO VLY WILL PERSIST OVER THE    CNTRL U.S THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER AZ/NM CONTINUES    E/SE TO S TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.  FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO    WILL PERSIST FROM S TX ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NRN FL.          AT THE SFC...IA LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS TRAILING    COLD FRONT DECELERATES OVER LWR PORTIONS OF THE OH...TN...AND MS    VLYS.  A SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE LWR MS VLY LATER IN THE    PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF AZ/NM UPR IMPULSE.  IN THE MEAN    TIME...WEAK WAVE ON W/E STNRY FRONT JUST S OF THE FL PANHANDLE    SHOULD TRACK E ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL TO THE GA CSTL WATERS    BY EVE.        ...FL AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...    40+ KT SWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE AND BENEATH    EXIT REGION OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NERN    GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FAIRLY RICH    MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND PW AOA 1.50 IN/ TO    OVERSPREAD NRN AND CNTRL FL S OF STALLED W/E FRONT/RAIN-REINFORCED    BOUNDARY.  WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS    WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT SBCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG.        LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE    SWD INTO THE NERN GULF EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD WITH    ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE THROUGH THE DAY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS    LIKELY WILL FORM S AND E OF THE MCS IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING OF    MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA.        DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT    AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT    LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS.  THESE MAY    PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR    TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING    THE AFTN.  WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT    MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS    AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE.        ...MID MS/LWR OH VLYS THIS AFTN...    LOBE OF ASCENT ROTATING AROUND MO VLY CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS    THE IL AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...ATOP NARROW    CORRIDOR OF LOW LVL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 50S F AND PW    AROUND 1 IN/.  SFC HEATING IN ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MAY BOOST SBCAPE    TO AROUND 750 J/KG GIVEN COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES.  SETUP MAY    SUPPORT EARLY AFTN DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT    NOW OVER E CNTRL MO AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES E OF THE MS RVR.     HOWEVER...12Z SGF RAOB AND SOME MODEL THERMAL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT    A WARM LAYER MIGHT MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND THE 700 MB LVL THAT    COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  AT ANY RATE...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL    NOT BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC    ENVIRONMENT...ONE OR TWO BANDS OF STRONG STORMS MAY FORM IF WARM    LAYER IS BREACHED.  THESE COULD YIELD HAIL AND PERHAPS A SPINUP-TYPE    TORNADO OR TWO.  ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD END LATER IN THE DAY.         ...LWR MS AND TN VLYS LATE...    TRAILING PORTION OF STALLING COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR    STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS ASCENT WITH AZ/NM UPR    IMPULSE OVERTAKES MOIST AXIS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT E OF THE MS    RVR.  COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG    DEEP SHEAR...STORMS MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND AS    THEY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS.    

Severe Weather Threat today for Parts of Arkansas,Missouri,Eastern Oklahoma,southern louisiana.mississippi, and western Florida

METD WEATHER

USA

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning for Severe WEather and possible tornadoes in parts of Arkansas,Missouri,eastern Oklahoma,

A new set of severe weather is expected to happen today by night to late night in parts of arkansas,missouri,and later at southern louisiana,southern mississippi,florida western part

The Newly formed Jets over cent tx will rusk rapidly towards EWD and creating active weather on the path. Central TX forecasts for morning shows low dew points and lack of shear.

The threat shall remain very restricted to this area. But as the lows progress EWD,

The warm environment with favoured shears will increase the risk of hails as well tornadoes as the lows enter the border of OK-tx-ar-la.

The low level jets of 40kt will enter the border by 18hr that is the night time. During the day for the south central states, day time heating will take place and will add to de-stabilisation of the environment till the night.The jets will weaken by 15hr. The surface maps for south central states of USA shows cyclogenesis ovr KS-MO border which will amplify the jets and push them towards central arkansas and further to south.

The thermo models show instability of 750J-1000J in these areas with the Dewpoint of 60F+

Shears will develop by late even which will increase the risk of hails and tornadoes by night in ctrl AK,Southern Misssouri,and to coastal areas of MS,LA,FL,. this is a night-early morn weather event.Threat for damaging winds and hails and also for tornadoes is very high and SPC has given 10% chance of tornadoes in this area.

Please be prepared for the action with the battery charged

CELLULAR CONVECTION IS

    EXPECTED INITIALLY..

.SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL

 FOR ISOLATED 

   TORNADOES. 

 LARGE HAIL WILL 

ALSO BE POSSIBLE..

.GIVEN LOW 60S   

 BOUNDARY LAYER 

DEWPOINTS BENEATH

 H5 TEMPERATURES 

AOB -20C.   

  OVERNIGHT...TORNADO THREAT

 SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS 

STORM MODE    BECOMES MORE

 LINEAR...THOUGH POTENTIAL

 FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

 HAIL    WILL LIKELY

 CONTINUE WITH STRONGER

 STORMS THROUGH THE

 OVERNIGHT    HOURS.

..AS THE CONVECTION 

SPREADS/EXPANDS EWD 

ACROSS THE OZARKS AND 

   INTO IL/WRN KY/WRN

 TN/MS/AL.  

Tornadoes are very sure by 

late night 

No chance of rainfall for today

The chance for rainfall on 10th march has become less. 

The alert is removed!

Rainfall Alert for nagpur on 10th march 2010 night!

METD Weather

Concerning- Rainfall alert #05 for Nagpur

The summer has already kicked off in the Indian plains and the temperatures have exceeded 35Deg Celcius.The weather models have been consistent with the chance of rainfall and isolated thunderstorms over central India. A low pressure zone in Bay Of Bengal is expected to move northwards weakening towards bangladesh. This LW will pump some cut off troughs towards Center and those will be the Neg.Vorticities. This means it will cause T.storm. 

For Nagpur, On 10th March,Wed. The day will be very hot. There is a strong chance of isolated T.storm at night and its going to be like the lasts mondays thing. 

The day's heat will build the clouds and will strengthen them to T.storms by Late afternoon to Midnight. The instability is overhead and the lift index are less than -2. 

If the day heats up sufficiently, the atmosphere will destabilize and might generate Hails or GARA by Evening. The rains will start by late evening or probably 5pm and will continue till night. Total amounts will be 1-2mm

On 12th march 2010, there is some RH present in the upper levels of atmosphere. The models are indicating rainfall right from the morning with a chance of thunderstorm 

I will verify the 12th march models later but remember tomorrow Evening and night will be cool. 

For me,I am expecting Hails in Nagpur which might fall tomorrow and better chance is on 12th march. 

stay safe-

Akshay

Extreme Weather Forecaster,Metd Weather

The weather turns to SW Oklahoma and Central Texas

Severe weather is possible tomorrow in SW OK,central TX.

The Helicity is very positive that is 600.

THe low level jet is 50kt

Moderate severe possible in USA during 7-8th march

METD Weather

USA

Concerning for thunderstorms in some parts of USA

Seeing the models it is looking like the tornado alley of USA is getting back into action slowly by following a very slow path. The 90hr GFS is showing the arrival of one 120kt jet upper level system into states of southern USA like Texas. The winter is still prevalent in many parts and there were zero tornado reports in Feb 2010 which is a history. Meanwhile there were many sayings that this season is late. But it doesnt' seem so. I had been seeing for this model throughout the runs from 1st March with an expectation of producing something in the southern states. A bet is also on between me and John Hallen Of SWS regarding this system .JH seems to be favouring for Kansas and hopes there will be a cold core storm in kansas where the thermodynamics are negative with low dewpoints,low moisture. The best one has to be texas southern and western part. The 90hr GFS has been consistent right from 140hr GFS from the model runs from 1st march

Coming to this system--

The main upper level trough is slowing progressing with a little delay. It seems its going to show the best on Monday afternoon. At the surface level,there are 40-30kt jets near and around central texas with some over the mexican border in areas of Del Rio. in these areas the dewpoints are fair but better than the northern part. The DP is 60F and the main problem goes with the instability. the instability is marginal 750J/kg for texas. this will restrict the strengthning of the thunderstorm. There is limited moisture at the surface and more I can say is restricted to some parts like souther tx.nm border and then later spreads towards east parts and North-eastern Tx.

Still looking at strong cold air advection at 700-500 Mb in the TX panhandle w/divergent flow. This is little negative but the conditions are expected to be a bit ok on monday.

THE Lift index values are -4 showing strong possibility of thunderstorms in the central part of texas.

The LLJ will move towards north eastern texas and thus there will be two system outbreak

I will however support the one over texas and mexican border near the areas of Del Rio as this will be better than the one over Texas and Oklahoma border.

The conditions will be clear tomorrow as the new model runs come in.

SUpport my team TX

I shall not be able to upgrade further due to some busy schedule in the coming week

So please turn on ur radios and check other websites for details

www.severewarningsystems.com

Akshay