Rainfall Alert for nagpur on 10th march 2010 night!

METD Weather

Concerning- Rainfall alert #05 for Nagpur

The summer has already kicked off in the Indian plains and the temperatures have exceeded 35Deg Celcius.The weather models have been consistent with the chance of rainfall and isolated thunderstorms over central India. A low pressure zone in Bay Of Bengal is expected to move northwards weakening towards bangladesh. This LW will pump some cut off troughs towards Center and those will be the Neg.Vorticities. This means it will cause T.storm. 

For Nagpur, On 10th March,Wed. The day will be very hot. There is a strong chance of isolated T.storm at night and its going to be like the lasts mondays thing. 

The day's heat will build the clouds and will strengthen them to T.storms by Late afternoon to Midnight. The instability is overhead and the lift index are less than -2. 

If the day heats up sufficiently, the atmosphere will destabilize and might generate Hails or GARA by Evening. The rains will start by late evening or probably 5pm and will continue till night. Total amounts will be 1-2mm

On 12th march 2010, there is some RH present in the upper levels of atmosphere. The models are indicating rainfall right from the morning with a chance of thunderstorm 

I will verify the 12th march models later but remember tomorrow Evening and night will be cool. 

For me,I am expecting Hails in Nagpur which might fall tomorrow and better chance is on 12th march. 

stay safe-

Akshay

Extreme Weather Forecaster,Metd Weather

The weather turns to SW Oklahoma and Central Texas

Severe weather is possible tomorrow in SW OK,central TX.

The Helicity is very positive that is 600.

THe low level jet is 50kt

Moderate severe possible in USA during 7-8th march

METD Weather

USA

Concerning for thunderstorms in some parts of USA

Seeing the models it is looking like the tornado alley of USA is getting back into action slowly by following a very slow path. The 90hr GFS is showing the arrival of one 120kt jet upper level system into states of southern USA like Texas. The winter is still prevalent in many parts and there were zero tornado reports in Feb 2010 which is a history. Meanwhile there were many sayings that this season is late. But it doesnt' seem so. I had been seeing for this model throughout the runs from 1st March with an expectation of producing something in the southern states. A bet is also on between me and John Hallen Of SWS regarding this system .JH seems to be favouring for Kansas and hopes there will be a cold core storm in kansas where the thermodynamics are negative with low dewpoints,low moisture. The best one has to be texas southern and western part. The 90hr GFS has been consistent right from 140hr GFS from the model runs from 1st march

Coming to this system--

The main upper level trough is slowing progressing with a little delay. It seems its going to show the best on Monday afternoon. At the surface level,there are 40-30kt jets near and around central texas with some over the mexican border in areas of Del Rio. in these areas the dewpoints are fair but better than the northern part. The DP is 60F and the main problem goes with the instability. the instability is marginal 750J/kg for texas. this will restrict the strengthning of the thunderstorm. There is limited moisture at the surface and more I can say is restricted to some parts like souther tx.nm border and then later spreads towards east parts and North-eastern Tx.

Still looking at strong cold air advection at 700-500 Mb in the TX panhandle w/divergent flow. This is little negative but the conditions are expected to be a bit ok on monday.

THE Lift index values are -4 showing strong possibility of thunderstorms in the central part of texas.

The LLJ will move towards north eastern texas and thus there will be two system outbreak

I will however support the one over texas and mexican border near the areas of Del Rio as this will be better than the one over Texas and Oklahoma border.

The conditions will be clear tomorrow as the new model runs come in.

SUpport my team TX

I shall not be able to upgrade further due to some busy schedule in the coming week

So please turn on ur radios and check other websites for details

www.severewarningsystems.com

Akshay

NOREASTER COMES BACK IN USA

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR USA EAST

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010  MDZ501-VAZ021-WVZ054-501-503-261600- /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100226T2300Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-PENDLETON-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...BAYARD...EMORYVILLE... HARTMANSVILLE 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010  ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...  A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.  * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.  * ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 20 INCHES TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  * TIMING...THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG WITH BLIZZARD   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING   UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING.   HIGHS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH NOON WILL BE   AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES.  * WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW   REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. 

RAINFALL ALERT ON MONDAY 22ND SEPT NAGPUR

RAINFALL ALERT# 03 ISSUED FOR NAGPUR. RAINFALL ON 22ND SEPT 2010 AFTER 3PM. 
THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED T.STORM TODAY AT NAGPUR LEADING TO CONVECTIVE RAINS BY NIGHT. I DEFY ALERT FROM 3PM TO 12AM TUE. CHANCE OF RAIN IS MORE FROM 5PM ON MON TO 8PM MON. ALERT!!

AKSHAY

RAINFALL ALERT FOR TUESDAY<16TH FEB 2010>

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

RAINFALL ALERT FOR NAGPUR CONTINUES TODAY AS WELL. MODELS SHOWING RAINFALL LIKE YESTERDAY. TODAY THE ACTION IS TO START LATER IN EVN ABT 5-6PM. RAINS MAY START AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 7PM AS THE 500MB MODEL SHOWS  STRONG CHANGES<DECREASE> IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT WHICH SAYS T.STORM IN AREA.

RAIN OF ABT 0.5MM EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2.3MM

ALERT ALERT ALERT

RAINFALL ALERT FOR NAGPUR ON MONDAY IN FINAL PHASE

METD ALERT

THE MODELS HAVE TURNED EXTREMELY POSITIVE SUGGESTING 5MM RAINFALL WITH T.STORMS TODAY BY 4-5PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TILL NIGHT

STAY SAFE.TOMORROWS WEATHER I SHALL TELL LATER

RAINFALL TO START BY 4PM OR 5PM

AKSHAY