BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS COLORADO

METD ALERT DEPT

WARNING FOR BLIZZARD IN COLORADO

A STORM SYSTEM IS SWEEPING CURRENTLY ACROSS COLORADO. THERE ARE
ALREADY LOW TEMPERATURES IN AREAS OF COLORADO LIKE GRAND
JUNCTION,DURANGO,BLANDING ETC.

Clouds will be on the increase this late night at the time when a
powerful storm structure will progress from the west. this will cause
rainfall in the form of snow in the northeast of Utah mountains and
northern and central parts of Colorado. the expected snowfall in this
areas would be about 6-12". THE NEXT 24HR 300MB SYSTEM shows that
another powerful storm system would sweep across Many parts of usa
including colorado. The 120 knot value is good for causing heavy
widespread snowfall in southern colorado creating blizzard conditions.
A BLIZZARD IS A CONDITION WHEN THERE IS INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW TEMP,STORNG
WINDS.

Stay tuned for updates

METD
AKSHAY

ACTION AFTER A BREAK

METD ALERT DEPT

USA

THE SOUTHERN STORM IS IMPACTING STATES LIKE ALBAMA SOUTH,FLORIDA PANHANDLE,SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

SYNOPSIS

A SOUTHERN STORM IS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH EAST. DAMAGING HAILS,HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE..

MORE THREAT IS TO THE COAST IN BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY.

THE 850MB SHOWS MANY LOW LEVEL JETS IN THESE AREAS WHICH WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA.

THE CONDITIONS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PERFECT IN THIS REGION DUE TO COASTAL WINDS

THERE ARE LARGE CHANGING SHEARS WITH DIRECTION<HELICITY> IN THIS AREA. THE EHI 0-1KM SOARS TO 8 NEAR PANAMA CITY

AS THE EVENING GOES AHEAD, THE CHANCE OF RAINS INCREASES IN THESE AREAS

HERES' SPC UPDATE

   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 310 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE    ALABAMA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.  FOR A    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

---

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More temp.drop expected

METD ALERT

METD ALERTS FOR SEVERE TEMPERATURE DROP IN NAGPUR IN THIS WEEK

I was busy with studies but was shocked to see the models when I
turned on the computer today

There has been severe snowfall in North india including areas like
srinagar,leh and the highway from srinagar to leh where we 'd probably
go in summer.
This is all due to increase in the activity from the Mediterranean sea.

the lowest temp recorded till now this year in NGP is 11.8 C
But this record is sure to be broken in this week as the cool wave is
approaching

It looks there will be a 9-10 Deg Celcius by Wednesday-thursday
In leh it is -24Celcius and in delhi it is as low as 8 Celcius

Also Argentina will be having tornadoes tomorrow

Akshay

RECORD OF WINDS,CENTRAL PRESSURE AND DAMAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN IN THE ARABIAN SEA.

METD WEATHER STATION
DATA OBSERVATION CENTER
NAGPUR,INDIA

SUBJECT-

OBSERVATIONS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN

DEAR ALL
WE HAVE RECEIVED THE DATAS FROM THE CYCLONE PHYAN LIKE WIND KNOT,CENTRAL PRESSURE, DESTRUCTION ETC

A cyclonic storm, 'Phyan' crossed Maharashtra coast between Alibag and
Mumbai between 1530 and 1630 hrs IST of 11th November, 2009.

Best track Positions and other parameters for cyclonic storm PHYAN over
the Arabian Sea during 09-12 November 2009


THE DATA IS AS FOLLOWS
DD/MM/YY/ TIME/ LAT/LONG/CI.NO/CENTRAL PRESSURE/WIND KNOT/GRADE
--------------------------------------------------------------------

9-11-2009

0900 11.0/72.0 1.5 1000 4 25 D
1200 11.5/71.5 1.5 1000 4 25 D
1800 12.0/71.0 1.5 1000 4 25 D

10-11-2009

0000 12.5/70.5 1.5 998 4 25 D
0300 13.0/70.5 2.0 998 5 30 DD
0600 13.5/70.5 2.0 998 5 30 DD
1200 14.5/71.0 2.0 996 5 30 DD
1800 15.0/71.0 2.5 996 6 35 CS
2100 15.5/71.5 2.5 994 6 35 CS

11-11-2009
0000 16.0/71.5 2.5 992 8 40 CS
0300 17.0/72.0 3.0 990 10 45 CS
0600 17.5/72.5 3.0 988 12 45 CS
0900 19.0/73.0 2.5 992 8 40 CS

The cyclonic storm "PHYAN" crossed Maharashtra coast between Alibag and
Mumbai between 1000 & 1100 UTC of 11th November, 2009.
1200 19.5/73.5 -- 996 5 30 DD
1500 20.0/74.0 -- 998 5 30 DD
1800 20.0/74.0 -- 1000 4 20 D

12-11-2009
0000 The system weakened into a well marked low pressure area over north Madhya Maharashtra.

GRADE INDEX

D : Depression,
DD : Deep depression
CS : Cyclonic Storm

----------------------------------------------------------------------

MUMBAI LOSS

THE CYCLONE WAS A DEEP DEPRESSION WHICH HAD LOST ITS PRECIOUS CORE. IT WAS FILLED WITH WATER AND WINDS ONLY

LANDFALL FOR MUMBAI WAS ON 11TH NOV 09 AT 15:30HRS
WIND KNOTS-
30
CENTRAL PRESSURE
998hPa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

FOR CYCLONGENESIS

Environmental features
The environmental features like sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear
of horizontal wind, mid-tropospheric humidity, low level convergence, upper level
divergence and coriolis force were favourable for cyclogenesis over the southeast
Arabian Sea on 9th. The sea surface temperature was about 28-30 deg. C over
southeast and east central Arabian Sea. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind
was low to moderate (10-20 knots) at 0830 hrs IST of 9th. In addition, the Madden
Julian Oscillation was also favourable, as its active phase lay over west equatorial.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

WIND HISTORY

The maximum wind (Kmph) reported at observatory stations of IMD at the
time of land fall are given below:
Pune : 68,
Goa 63,
Colaba,MUMBAI- 56.
However, according to Newspaper report, maximum surface wind was about
75 kmph along Maharashtra coast at the time of landfall.
The wind speed predicted at the time was 65--75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph
along and off Maharashtra and Goa coast based on 0830 IST observation of 10th
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Damage:

According to Newspaper report, the cyclone 'Phyan' caused damage to lives,
crops and properties in Goa and Konkan region especially in Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg,
Raigad and Thane districts. About 1000 houses in these districts suffered damages.
Seven persons died and 44 are missing due to cyclone 'Phyan'.
----------------------------------------------------------------------




METD WEATHER STATION
AKSHAY DEORAS

CYCLONE PHYAN BY-PASSES MUMBAI

CYCLONE PHYAN PASSES THROUGH MUMBAI

CYCLONE PHYAN HAS PASSED MUMBAI RECENTLY ONE HOUR BEFORE TIME PREDICTED BY METD

THE CYCLONE PASSED MUMBAI RAPIDLY WITH LESS DISTRUCTION THAN EXPECTED.

THE DATAS FROM THIS PASSBY WOULD BE LOADED SOON ON METD

AKSHAY

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN CHANGES PATH. TO HIT MUMBAI EVENING

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN CHANGES ITS PATH

THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED ITS PATH NOW.

THE CYCLONE EARLIER WAS TARGETED TO MOVE TO GUJRAT THROUGH ARABIAN SEA BUT NOW IT WILL MAKE A LANDFALL VERY SOON

THE WORST NEWS IS THAT THE LANDFALL WOULD BE HALF DISTANCE BETWEEN MUMBAI AND DAPOLI AT ABOUT 05:30PM TODAY<11TH NOV 09>

THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE NORTH TO GETTING OVER AMBARNATH AND MISSING MUMBAI BY 131-135 KMS. IT WOULD HEAD NORTH AND MISS NASHIK.

THE EXPECTED FIGURES AT THE LANDFALL WOULD BE ABOUT WINDS OF 63MPH GUSTING TO 81MPH. AT 18.3 N AND 73E.THIS WOULD BE THE MAXIMUM AND THEN IT WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. 

ALERT FOR

 

RASAYANI,AMBARNATH FOR THE LANDFALL AT NOV 11 2009 AT 05:30PM

HIGH WINDS IN MUMBAI ABOUT 63MPH. 

HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI.

ALERT.... 

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

ALERT FOR CYCLONE LANDFALL AT GUJRAT,RAJASTHAN DURING NOV 11-12 2009

METD WEATHER

ALERT DEPT

FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM FOUR IN THE ARABIAN SEA

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL STORM GUSTING ABOUT 43MPH

THE TROPICAL STORM WAS FORMED LATE NIGHT. THE WARM TEMP, MOISTURE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA AND LOW WIND SHEAR ALL CAME TOGETHER AND FORMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE EARLIER WERE EXPECTING FOR A CONVERSION INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONLY. 

THIS CENTER OF CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 200 MILES TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF GOA. THERE ARE MANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONE AS WELL.

AHEAD OF THIS SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TO THE EAST OF TAMIL NADU

CYCLONE-FOUR PATH

THE CYCLONES PATH IS NOW LOOKING CERTAIN. THE PREVIOUS MODEL SHOWED THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE EAST. BUT NOW IT IS LOOKING THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARDS GUJARAT.

AS THE EVENING FALLS DOWN AND NIGHT ARRIVES,THE MORE MOISTURE RELEASED FROM THE SEA WILL AGGREGATE THE CYCLONE MORE AND THE WINDS WOULD TURN PROBABLY TO 63MPH AND GUSTING TO 81MPH. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MAXIMUM WE CAN DEDUCE FROM THIS CYCLONE AFTER WHICH IT WOULD DISINTEGRATE.

                      NOVEMBER 11 2009

1]   THE CYCLONE WOULD MAKE A LANDFALL AT 60KM AWAY FROM MAHUVA WHICH IS ON NH 8E ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 5:30 AM IST

2]  THEN IT WOULD GO TO NORTH AND WILL COME IN BHANDANA ON NH 8E JUST AFTER FEW HOURS.

3]  THEN IT WOULD BE ABOUT 19KMS AWAY FROM CITY OF BHAVNAGAR ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 07:00 AM IST

<   BHAVNAGAR WOULD HAVE A DISTANCE OF 19-21KMS AWAY FROM THIS CYCLONE AND THE SPEED OF WIND IN THIS CITY WOULD BE ABOUT 62KM/HR>

NOVEMBER 12 2009

THE CYCLONE WILL RECEIVE RESISTANCE FROM THE JET STREAMS SO IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL REACH PALI IN RAJASTHAN. 

THE DISTANCE WOULD BE 37KM FROM THE CITY AND THE WINDS WOULD BE ABOUT 55KM/HR

CYCLONE WOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW

THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE ON NOV 12 2009 AT 05:30PM IST

JODHPUR WOULD BE IN ITS WIND RADIUS.......

THEN IT WOULD MOVE TO NORTH AND WOULD BRING WINDS  ONLY

THERE WOULD BE RAINS TODAY AT NAGPUR AS WELL AS TOMORROW...

PLEASE MAIL THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR DEAR ONES LIVING IN RAJASTHAN,GUJARAT

NEXT UPDATE-

18:00 HRS IST ON NOV 10 2009

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

NAGPUR