ALERT FOR CYCLONE LANDFALL AT GUJRAT,RAJASTHAN DURING NOV 11-12 2009

METD WEATHER

ALERT DEPT

FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM FOUR IN THE ARABIAN SEA

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL STORM GUSTING ABOUT 43MPH

THE TROPICAL STORM WAS FORMED LATE NIGHT. THE WARM TEMP, MOISTURE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA AND LOW WIND SHEAR ALL CAME TOGETHER AND FORMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE EARLIER WERE EXPECTING FOR A CONVERSION INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONLY. 

THIS CENTER OF CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 200 MILES TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF GOA. THERE ARE MANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONE AS WELL.

AHEAD OF THIS SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TO THE EAST OF TAMIL NADU

CYCLONE-FOUR PATH

THE CYCLONES PATH IS NOW LOOKING CERTAIN. THE PREVIOUS MODEL SHOWED THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE EAST. BUT NOW IT IS LOOKING THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARDS GUJARAT.

AS THE EVENING FALLS DOWN AND NIGHT ARRIVES,THE MORE MOISTURE RELEASED FROM THE SEA WILL AGGREGATE THE CYCLONE MORE AND THE WINDS WOULD TURN PROBABLY TO 63MPH AND GUSTING TO 81MPH. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MAXIMUM WE CAN DEDUCE FROM THIS CYCLONE AFTER WHICH IT WOULD DISINTEGRATE.

                      NOVEMBER 11 2009

1]   THE CYCLONE WOULD MAKE A LANDFALL AT 60KM AWAY FROM MAHUVA WHICH IS ON NH 8E ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 5:30 AM IST

2]  THEN IT WOULD GO TO NORTH AND WILL COME IN BHANDANA ON NH 8E JUST AFTER FEW HOURS.

3]  THEN IT WOULD BE ABOUT 19KMS AWAY FROM CITY OF BHAVNAGAR ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 07:00 AM IST

<   BHAVNAGAR WOULD HAVE A DISTANCE OF 19-21KMS AWAY FROM THIS CYCLONE AND THE SPEED OF WIND IN THIS CITY WOULD BE ABOUT 62KM/HR>

NOVEMBER 12 2009

THE CYCLONE WILL RECEIVE RESISTANCE FROM THE JET STREAMS SO IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL REACH PALI IN RAJASTHAN. 

THE DISTANCE WOULD BE 37KM FROM THE CITY AND THE WINDS WOULD BE ABOUT 55KM/HR

CYCLONE WOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW

THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE ON NOV 12 2009 AT 05:30PM IST

JODHPUR WOULD BE IN ITS WIND RADIUS.......

THEN IT WOULD MOVE TO NORTH AND WOULD BRING WINDS  ONLY

THERE WOULD BE RAINS TODAY AT NAGPUR AS WELL AS TOMORROW...

PLEASE MAIL THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR DEAR ONES LIVING IN RAJASTHAN,GUJARAT

NEXT UPDATE-

18:00 HRS IST ON NOV 10 2009

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

NAGPUR

 

IDA LOSING STRENGTH. VERY CLOSE TO THE LANDFALL

TROPICAL STORM IDA HAS STARTED LOSING ITS STRENGTH

IDA,WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY DOMINATING BY CAT 2 FORMAT IS NOW A CAT-1 HURRICANE.

AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING, IDA HAS LOST ITS CENTER OF AXIS THAT IS THE "EYE"

This is a sign of losing its organized and symmetric structure. The winds of ida are now round 80mph with the central pressure of 993mb.

Its current location is 

25.8N   88.2W

NHC has issued hurricane watch for most of the southern coasts from 

PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

Ida would surely rise the water level of the sea near its landfall by 4-6 above the ground level...

already it is struggling with a lot of dry air present around it. After the landfall, a close upper level trough <low pressure> will damp cold air in it and the hurricane will disintegrate...

The moisture from Ida would be present in the landfall areas after it disappears as it had happened in the case of hurricane Fred.

Ida's journey has been exciting!!

METD 

Akshay

SNOW REPORTS FROM NORTH INDIA.

SNOWFALL IN UPPER-REACHES OF NORTH INDIA

A HUGE JET WHICH IS SET OVER NORTHERN INDIA HAS BROUGHT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR

THE REPORTS RECEIVED ARE FROM 

1]GULMARG,55 KMS AWAY FROM SRINAGAR

2]Farkian Gali, Sadna Top, Razdan pass, Tulail and Gurez along the Line of Control also experienced mild to heavy snowfall

3]MANALI AND ROHTANG PASS

4]DISTRICT HQ OF LAHAUL,SPITI -  KYELONG RECEIVED SNOWFALL AS WELL..

SNOW WAS ABOUT 3 INCHES

ALSO AREAS LIKE

5] Gumri and Matian near Zojilla Pass in Kargil and Khardungla in Leh were lashed by the snow. RECEIVED HEAVY SNOWFALL

6] Pahalgam belt Sheeshnag and Panjtarni 

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MORE IN THE NEXT few HOURS

AKSHAY DEORAS

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING SOUTH. WILL TURN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING IN THE SOUTH.


DEAR ALL,
IT IS CLOUDY NOW FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS BECAUSE OF THE IMPACT OF THE GIANT
THUNDERSTORM WHICH HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF INDIA.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS CREATED FROM A THUNDERSTORM CELL FROM EAST ASIA.
IT CAME IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND AS THE EL-NINO IS STRENGTHENING MORE
MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN THIS STORM. THE SST ARE WARN ENOUGH WITH A
PATCH OF 32DEG CELCIUS WHICH IS GOOD FOR STRENGTHENING.
AT THE PRESENT MODELS, I CAN SURELY SAY IT WILL AGGREGATE..
IT IS GOING TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ATLEAST WHICH HAS GUSTS
ABOUT 35-39 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO NORTH IN NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
WHEN IT DOES SO.IT WILL START WEAKENING AND SOME COOL AIR FROM NORTH
WILL DAMP COOL AIR IN IT MAINLY OVER M.P

HOWEVER,IT MAY SWING TO NORTH INDIA WITH A THUNDERSTORM IF IT GAINS
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SURVIVE THE COOL WINDS AND JETS FROM NORTH-WEST




HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY IN  KERELA AND MAHARASHTRA.
PANAJI,GOA MIGHT FALL AT THE CENTER OF IT VERY SOON

NAGPUR WEATHER-

CLOUDY FOR TODAY<09 NOV>
INCREASE IN RAINS<10 NOV>
THUNDERSTORM <11 NOV>***************

*********  ---       SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION

STAY ALERT AND I WILL LET YOU KNOW IF THERE IS ANYTHING



METD ALERT DEPT
AKSHAY

IDA Strengthening

Hurricane Ida has strengthened

Hurricane ida has strengthened now. It is moving with cat 1 format. 

The hurricane has more potential of turning into cat 2 very soon.The SST on the way and the moisture will add more to the storm.

Infrared images shows  that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere.The wind shear is moderate and the Cape is less which is very favorable for intensification. 

It would intensify till sunday afternoon. Then a low pressure system moving from Western USA will dump cool air in it. It will disintensify and will also move in cool  SST. 

we will update later

TROPICAL STORM IDA

TROPICAL STORM IDA

 

Tropical Storm Ida has emerged in to the western Caribbean and has regained tropical storm status.

As of 7 AM EST, Ida was moving to the north at 8 mph into the western Caribbean with top winds of 45 mph. Ida is located about 280 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has now been issued for Grand Cayman Island.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen northward to San Felipe Mexico.

The government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the Province of Del Rio.

The system is expected to slowly move northward toward the Yucatan Channel and then into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as it strengthens back to a moderate to strong Tropical Storm.

Residents along the Yucatan need to monitor Ida closely for strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Beyond this weekend mariners and residents of the northeast Gulf of Mexico will need to monitor the progress of Ida as it heads slowly northward.

Ida will combine with a strong High Pressure area to the north to bring a strong pressure gradient that will result in gusty winds all across eastern Florida down into the Keys and Gulf of Mexico.

High Surf and Dangerous Rip Currents will persist for days and boaters and swimmers are urged to use extreme caution. If you are not a good swimmer you don't want to press your luck and take on the waves you could lose your life.

Stay tuned all weekend to The Weather Channel with frequent updates on Tropical Storm Ida with Tropical Expert Dr Steve Lyons and Weather.Com.

On average, about one tropical storm develops every two years during the month of November and every three years a hurricane develops. The southwest Caribbean is the most favored location for this to occur.

The last season with a named storm in November was 2008 when Paloma developed and impacted the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

METD LOOKING TO FORECAST TORNADOES IN SOUTH AMERICA THIS YEAR

TIme for some more action!

Well,My friend Reed Timmer might be heading to South America to
Argentina for catching some tornadoes. This time of the year, Areas of
Argentina receive tornadoes.
Outside USA,Argentina and Bangladesh have high tornadoes risks.
Even,METD is looking forward for Forecasting the springs of Argentina
to catch some tornadoes at least not personally but through a RADAR.
We'd Let you know soon whether we are going to forecast tornadoes in
argentina or not

Akshay Deoras