tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8214945082460545660.post7131917123835452122..comments2023-12-22T00:45:52.965-08:00Comments on METD WEATHER: WILL JULY 2012 RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE CITIZENS OF INDIA??METD WEATHERhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17958854225977993782noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8214945082460545660.post-6484449406750113632012-07-06T00:04:12.908-07:002012-07-06T00:04:12.908-07:00Hi,
Sorry for the late reply. This tends to match...Hi, <br />Sorry for the late reply. This tends to match with the present thinking that the IOD has a more direct influence on the Indian Monsoon as compared to the ENSO. IMD has recently agreed to take into consideration the IOD phenomena as they use a forecasting technique in which ENSO has a major role. I had also adopted the same method till last year until now when I realized that IOD is more linked. <br /><br />We know that the Indian Monsoon rainfall and the (overall temperatures) is more (less) than the normal during a La Nina event and vice versa during the El Nino event. <br />What I have observed in the recent is that the MJO waves have greater amplitude and frequency during an active ENSO as compared to the Neutral ENSO. During an El Nino event, the MJO activity observed over Indian regions is dry type and vice versa during the La Nina. Sometimes, the La Nina and Wet MJO ( As the IOD is positive) co-incides which increases the rainfall. MJO is very much linked to the IOD for the Indian regions. <br /><br />I am still finding a relation between the IOD and ENSO which I believe will be a breakthrough in the monsoon forecastings. <br /><br />Hope its clear and simple!<br /><br />AkshayMETD WEATHERhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17958854225977993782noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8214945082460545660.post-82534231448597305812012-07-01T00:26:57.163-07:002012-07-01T00:26:57.163-07:00Hi Akshay!
Came across a research - here are the ...Hi Akshay!<br /><br />Came across a research - here are the extracts:<br /><br />"Severe drought in July over the Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region is more linked to the SST based Indian Ocean dipole mode index prior to July than to the strength of El Ninos of the summer monsoon season. <br /><br />When, during El Nino years the Homogeneous India experiences an extremely dry July, the development of the positive dipole mode that usually begins around May-June does not start until the second half of the summer monsoon season. <br /><br />The occurrences of positive and negative Indian Ocean dipole events are irregular during the late 19th century throughout the 20 th century. <br /><br />The negative events that tend to co-occur with La Nina events dominates over the positive events during the period from the late 19th century to the early 20th century, which was followed by the period of weak dipole events. <br /><br />After 1960, the strong positive events with significant anomalous warming over the western pole and cooling over the eastern pole that are not observed in the earlier periods show, tending to co-occur with El Nino events."<br /><br />Maybe you can decipher what this means in common parlance.<br /><br />RgdsRajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.com