Double trouble heading for Jammu and Kashmir

BLOG EDITION- http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/double-trouble-heading-jammu-and-kashmir

*** THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION *** 

*** Considering the approaching rainfall event, we advise the people to suspend their travel to ‪#‎Srinagar‬, ‪#‎Kashmir‬ till April 6th *** 

*** This is a brief pause of rains. People should not get misguided by it and ignore warnings as similar weather conditions will start from Wednesday, 1st April 2015*** 

After a brief pause, heavy rains will resume on Wednesday

March started with a bang. It will also end with a bang. More rains are on the way for Jammu and Kashmir. The anticipated western disturbance and upper air trough have produced heavy rainfall in the state, particularly in the Kashmir valley and in and around Jammu.

In the past 24 hours (till 8:30 am IST on March 30), Katra had received heavy rainfall, measuring 139 mm. It was followed by 124 mm at Batote in Ramban district, 98.1 mm in Jammu, 72 mm in Banihal, 70 mm in Qazigund, 58 mm (precipitation) in Pahalgam, 50.6 mm in Srinagar, 40.1 mm in Gulmarg and 65.8 mm in Bhaderwah in Doda district . While the absolute amounts seem too low to trigger floods, the topography of the state makes it more vulnerable to flooding.Urbanisation has led to the collapse of natural drainage systems in Srinagar, causing an increase in water logging.

Reports of floods are emerging from Srinagar and other areas. Many areas in Jammu have been waterlogged due to rains. Mudslides have been reported from areas like Budgam and the state government has declared a flood. Two teams of 100 personnel of the National Disaster Response Force have been sent to Srinagar and hundreds of people have already been evacuated. Landslides have also been reported on the Jammu-Srinagar highway. It has remained shut today for the third day in a row. To make the things worse, Jhelum river has started swelling due to heavy rains. On Monday morning, it had crossed the danger level in Srinagar and Sangam areas of south Kashmir, as per reports. Schools have been closed for two days and board and university exams have been postponed. 

The effect of western disturbance is, however, receding. At the time of writing this post, Srinagar and Jammu were reporting a partly cloudy weather. As per the GFS weather model, the weather in the state will continue to remain a little cloudy on Monday and Tuesday. Light rains or drizzle can be expected in the state. This brief pause in rainfall will help in the receding of water from places like Srinagar.  Even the water level of Jhelum will decrease a little due to the absence of rains.

But come Wednesday and rains will once again commence in the currently affected areas. Rainfall will continue in periods till April 6. According to current estimates, western Jammu and Kashmir will witness heavy rains on Wednesday and Friday. Rains will decrease from April 4. 

This will likely bring back water logging and cause an upsurge in the water level of the Jhelum. As the river is already seeing an upsurge, even a little rainfall is likely to make the river exceed the danger level again. The authorities claim that, after last year’s flood, they strengthened the embankments and no breaches have been reported so far.

There will also be heavy snowfall in the higher reaches, causing landslides and avalanches in prone areas. This will keep the Jammu-Srinagar highway closed during the period from April 1 to 6. Srinagar airport may also see disruptions during this period due to water logging.

People living in these areas must stay alert. Following are the precautions people must follow: 

• Keep with you water (at least a 5-day supply), food (at least a 5-day supply of non-perishable, easy-to-prepare food), flashlight, battery-powered radio, extra batteries, first aid kit, medications (7-day supply), cell phone with chargers, family and emergency contact information, extra cash, emergency blanket, tools/supplies for securing your home, extra clothing, hat and sturdy shoes and rain gear.
• Listen to area radio and television stations for authentic details. 
• Be prepared to evacuate at a moment’s notice. Stay away from landslide- and avalanche-prone zones. 
• When a flood or flash flood warning is issued for your area, head for higher ground and stay there.
• Stay away from floodwaters and the river Jhelum. If you come upon a flowing stream where water is above your ankles, stop, turn around and go another way. Six inches of swiftly moving water can sweep you off of your feet.
• If you come upon a flooded road while driving, turn around and go another way. If you are caught on a flooded road and waters are rising rapidly around you, get out of the car quickly and move to higher ground. Most cars can be swept away by less than two feet of moving water.
• Keep children out of the water. They are curious and often lack judgment about running water or contaminated water.
• Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognise flood danger.

Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster

Disturbance from West ceases, mercury set to rise

BLOG EDITION- http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/disturbance-west-ceases-mercury-set-rise

Relief in sight for states in the grip of swine flu

State-wise rainfall in India between March 1 and March 11, 2015 (courtesy IMD)

Latest data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms what most Indians already know from experience. The data shows rainfall received between March 1 and 13 in most areas (coloured blue in the India map) has been in excess of 20 per cent or more. In this period, India normally receives about 9.8mm rain but this time it has received 33.2 mm rain.

The figures in the map may not appear alarming but it’s important to note that these are the weighted average values (weighted mean). In this method of averaging, proper numerical weights (numbers) are assigned to every observation and then their weighted mean is calculated. Rainfall measurement is done in a similar manner as explained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US. As per this technique, India reported a strong 239 per cent departure (from normal) in rainfall in this period. The weather eventwhich lasted between February 28 and March 3 has been the major contributor in this rainfall amount.

Swine flu’s link to weather events 
These back to back rainfall events not only damaged the crops but also kept a lid on the maximum temperatures at many places. Such a condition is usually favourable for the swine flu virus which has been causing a havoc in India. Maximum impact of swine flu is being reported from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat. State-wise per cent rainfall departures (March 1 to March 11) in these states are astonishing. The per cent rainfall departures (from normal) in Gujarat is 42,811;  2,757 for Rajasthan; 932 for Madhya Pradesh; 1,240 for Delhi; 720 for Telangana; 1,554 for Maharashtra and 750 for Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall amounts will be even more when the data from past week weather outbreak is considered.

District rainfall departure map for north-west India for the period March1-March 11 (courtesy IMD)

After these havoc-causing events in the initial two weeks, weather in India has started to stabilise. Going by the projection of weather models like Global Forecast System (GFS), it looks like some significant heating is possible over the next couple of days. This is likely to kick off the summer season in India. The meteorological seasons in India, as defined by IMD, are pretty strange. According to its definition, India has a winter season which lasts between January and February but it doesn’t have a summer season. Most of India (except for parts of southern India) witnesses winter conditions mostly from November. IMD defines the October- December period as a post monsoon period. It calls the period of March to May (when India sweats due to significant heating) as the pre-monsoon season.

As per GFS, no western disturbance is expected in India for (at least) one week. Plus, the upper air is also expected to remain stable as no trough is expected over India in the next few days. Hence, the weather is likely going to stay clear at most of the places which would be an important factor in increasing the heat and hence the temperatures--maximum and minimum. Even the swine flu-affected states are going to witness significant heating which would likely result in a drop in the number of swine flu cases.

Expected mean surface temperature in India over the next few days (courtesy: IGES/COLA)The above image gives an idea of the expected heating. Top map shows the expected mean surface temperature (in degree Celsius) between March 18 and 26, 2015. The scale is given to the left side. Bottom image shows the expected temperature anomaly (in degree Celsius). The long range forecast (March 26 to April 3) given in the middle image may not be that reliable right now but it is possible that the heating will continue in April first week also. Reddish regions in much of India indicate higher than normal temperatures. Below is what can be expected till March 26, 2015.

Initially, places in Rajasthan would be getting a maximum temperature around 35°C and it may rise even further in the next week. Maximum temperature in Jaipur is expected to remain near 32-33°C in this period. Gujarat is also going to get higher maximum temperatures in the coming days. Significant heating is possible due to which maximum temperatures will likely stay in the 35-40°C range. Maximum temperatures at places like Vidarbha in Maharashtra are likely to near 40°C. Other places like Marathwada will also witness maximum temperatures around 35°C in the coming period. Mumbai should be staying at around 35°C. Delhi, too, will start experiencing heating as maximum temperatures will touch 30°C initially and then will rise above 30°C in the coming period. Places in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh will also be warm. Many places in Telangana are already reporting a maximum temperature of around 35°C. The weather is likely to be similar in the coming period.

Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster